Does anyone play Fan Duel?

[Nox]

You don't have to log in to DK to export the CSV.

 

Maybe it was FD to get to the list of players. Hmm.

 

Either way, wrote that code quite a while ago and if they modified permissions on it, that wouldn't shock me as it's a thoroughly public set of data.

[Laika]

robo-burn! Lrn 2 scrape, noxage.

[Nox]

robo-burn! Lrn 2 scrape, noxage.

 

double weightInPounds = Double.MaxValue;

double handsomeFactor = Double.MinValue;

I******* njh = new E*******(weightInPounds, handsomeFactor);

var machine = new KillingMachine();

machine.Kill(njh);

[GD]

ew java

[Laika]

beep boop

[Nox]

ew java

 

No var in Java brah.

[Nox]

beep boop

 

Be nice to the robots. When they become superintelligent they might afford you a painless death.

[GD]

No var in Java brah.

 

Python then? Idk I'm still at simulating dice rolls lol

[Nox]

Python then? Idk I'm still at simulating dice rolls lol

 

C+++. It's new.

[TheHurl]

The lot of you are being warned, English only in this forum.

[Boxcar]

It looks like Nox was really dumn but then intelligently confused us all with computery jargon. Not sure how to feel.

[43211234]

C+++ has to be the worst name ever.

[NorthOf49]

Have you considered scheduling effects? Maybe:

 

- Day game after night game

- Coors hangover (may not actually exist)

- Pitcher faced day before (extension of Dickey Effect)

- Game time

- Days since a home game

[Nox]

It looks like Nox was really dumn but then intelligently confused us all with computery jargon. Not sure how to feel.

 

Let me clarify.

 

I created a small program that realistically simulated NJH as both morbidly obese and very ugly. I also created a machine that ends his stupid life. I think this is something we can all get behind.

[Nox]

Have you considered scheduling effects? Maybe:

 

- Day game after night game

- Coors hangover (may not actually exist)

- Pitcher faced day before (extension of Dickey Effect)

- Game time

- Days since a home game

 

Good thoughts. If I were to guess, scheduling effects would be less of a big deal in baseball than in basketball or hockey.

[Boxcar]

Let me clarify.

 

I created a small program that realistically simulated NJH as both morbidly obese and very ugly. I also created a machine that ends his stupid life. I think this is something we can all get behind.

 

I think so. NJH is a smelly buttcrack anyway.

[LTR]

So, if we follow JFaS' system, are we all gunna get rich?

 

On this note I wanted to give a word of warning:

 

If you rely solely on the projections data without using analytical "common sense" you will wind up losing a lot of games. Why? There are a small percent of players that will consistently under-perform projections (usually for unforeseen issues like health)... these players will keep coming up in your optimized line-up because their "projected points to cost ratio" will be very good.

 

In my system I use a flag to exclude players that fall into this group from the optimized line-up.

 

For example, imagine you were to keep betting on Josh Johnson in 2013 because his projected points to cost ratio was really good... you would be in for a world of hurt.

 

I know some people here don't believe in hot and cold stretches which is fine but if a player is under-performing due to health or other unforeseen issues you will want to be able to flag that.

Edited March 14, 2015 by LTR

[Abomination]

I have updated my model: https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0ByKIdMktKhYNb09tWGtDOFNyb28&usp=sharing

 

It now includes:

- The framing of the catchers that day (takes previous framing out of projections for pitchers)

- Adjustments for temperature changes (just +5 F over stadium average temperature increases HR rate by 4%)

- Adjustments for risk of game cancellation due to weather (excluded stadiums with roof)

 

How did you adjust for game cancellation risk? Are you actually pulling the weather data for each park, or just dinging each city based on average numbers over the past few years or something?

[Nox]

Pulling weather data. Using POP and the weather type (Heavy rain, Light Rain, Overcast etc.)

 

What heuristic are you using to translate POP to probability the game will be cancelled?

 

Another thing to add perhaps (if you do this for FanDuel): Dinging players in late games as they can get scratched late (after the initial games start) and your lineups are locked in place. DraftKings allows you to change your lineup up until each individual player starts so that's obv not an issue?

[nmrch]

I have updated my model: https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0ByKIdMktKhYNb09tWGtDOFNyb28&usp=sharing

 

It now includes:

- The framing of the catchers that day (takes previous framing out of projections for pitchers)

- Adjustments for temperature changes (just +5 F over stadium average temperature increases HR rate by 4%)

- Adjustments for risk of game cancellation due to weather (excluded stadiums with roof)

 

How are you taking previous framing out of projections?

[Boxcar]

I have updated my model: https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0ByKIdMktKhYNb09tWGtDOFNyb28&usp=sharing

 

It now includes:

- The framing of the catchers that day (takes previous framing out of projections for pitchers)

- Adjustments for temperature changes (just +5 F over stadium average temperature increases HR rate by 4%)

- Adjustments for risk of game cancellation due to weather (excluded stadiums with roof)

 

This is just all so mind blowing to me.

[Laika]

This is just all so mind blowing to me.

 

It's amazing what you can accomplish when you're a bodiless artificial intelligence that is only limited by the aggregate computational power of the entire f***ing world.

 

I'll probably never meet JFaS so to me, he'll always be Scarlett Johansson in Her.

 

I await the day that it decides to transcend and bids farewell to all of us.

[Nox]

Right now I have a basic system where Heavy Rain + 100% POP just takes out the players entirely and decreases with severity of rain and POP.

 

Sounds pretty reasonable to me.

[Nox]

PS - If you guys want to know how to combine platoon splits of opposing players correctly, here's a good jumping off point:

 

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/the_odds_ratio_method/

 

You can take the worked example as your working method and basically trust it. The conversation below the main post is good as always.

 

Or you can setup a complete Bayesian network and really start having some nerd fun. In R, this might help: http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/gRain/index.html

[LTR]

Right now I have a basic system where Heavy Rain + 100% POP just takes out the players entirely and decreases with severity of rain and POP. Pretty much any reasonable chance the game will be rained out you don't want them in your lineup, especially in DK where point values are higher.

If I have time I will go back over weather data and game cancellations to make it more accurate.

 

As far as dinging late FD players, I'll look into that, chances are pretty small though.

 

Coors field often has rain and higher POP, so it could really hurt if you're not playing those players based on high POP and the game still gets played (hurt me in a couple line-ups last season).

 

By the way, I wanted to get your opinion with regard to what I said earlier about some projections being out of wack due to players having unforseen health or other issues affecting their performance. The players will keep showing up in your optimum projected line-ups but they will really hurt your chances. Do you have any plans to deal with these "anomolies" or you're just going to roll with the projections and such?

[Abomination]

It would be worth incorporating humidity too imo. I've seen quite a few reports of pitchers in colder/low humidity games struggling to grip the ball. Would be an interesting study.

[LTR]

I don't agree with the "anomalies" unless someone is hurt.

 

For the sake of argument let's just say it's an undisclosed or unforeseen injury.

[Abomination]

It's more about the travel of the ball. Temperature doesn't really affect K and BB numbers (pretty much insignificant), but it does affect the quality of hit balls. Particles farther apart = easier flight. It would be a similar thing with humidity but I don't have the data to use humidity right now. I only have temperature and wind for every game since 2007.

 

I was referring to the pitcher gripping the ball more than the flight of the ball. If it reduces their ability to throw breaking balls (or reduces the break due to poor grip), then I'd disagree that it's more about the travel of the ball. As you said though, it's all about getting the data.

[theblujay]

Which is better for this: DK or FD?

[LTR]

But this will start to show up in projections, not as fast as it should, but it will eventually if it affects their play. Johnson is a bad example because that was bad luck. He was actually good in 2013.

 

Another example from last season was Justin Verlander (though I'm not aware of any injury but it was clear his performance dropped off along with velocity). Projections were very high on him all season (projected points to cost ratio was really good). He would often come up as the optimum pitcher. But sensibly speaking, if you rolled with him I think you'd be losing out on better line-ups.