Annual Win Total Prediction Contest

[TDotttt2005]

If they win that many games, I think they win the division

 

Looks that way now, but I think the Red Sox will end up going on a good run here soon. Their pitching has been pretty good, other than Buchholz. I believe that they'll sign Drew after the draft, when the draft pick comp is gone (imagine that, a team spending money to fill their holes!!) to solidify the left side of the infield. And their Pen has been amazing with Uehara and Miller making it a 6 inning game essentially.

[Atothe]

Looks that way now, but I think the Red Sox will end up going on a good run here soon. Their pitching has been pretty good, other than Buchholz. I believe that they'll sign Drew after the draft, when the draft pick comp is gone (imagine that, a team spending money to fill their holes!!) to solidify the left side of the infield. And their Pen has been amazing with Uehara and Miller making it a 6 inning game essentially.

 

Where is he gonna play? Not at short XB, not at second Pedoria.

[TDotttt2005]

Where is he gonna play? Not at short XB, not at second Pedoria.

 

Drew to SS, XB to 3rd. Middlebrooks/Herrera have been terrible at Third.

[Atothe]

Drew to SS, XB to 3rd. Middlebrooks/Herrera have been terrible at Third.

 

Don't think so. The XB era has begun and hopefully its to the hall of fame. Its third base or Nada. I think Mariners or Yankees sign him.

[Olerud363]

82

 

Since 1993 I see five distinct templates...

 

Bumping for CHP

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

Looks that way now, but I think the Red Sox will end up going on a good run here soon. Their pitching has been pretty good, other than Buchholz. I believe that they'll sign Drew after the draft, when the draft pick comp is gone (imagine that, a team spending money to fill their holes!!) to solidify the left side of the infield. And their Pen has been amazing with Uehara and Miller making it a 6 inning game essentially.

 

Your timing on this is amusing ( was posted May 14th ).

Edited May 26, 2014 by Cooler Heads Prevail

[G-Snarls]

Are we bumping every old prediction thread now?

[NorthOf49]

Are we bumping every old prediction thread now?

http://i.imgur.com/vwMin.gif

[theblujay]

What's our current pythag prediction?

[GD]

R: 243

RA: 222

pW%: (R^2) / (R^2 + RA^2)

pW% = .545

G: 50

xW: 27

xL: 23

 

So we're lucky by 0.75 wins. Which is insignificant. We're right on track. On pace for 88.3 wins. However, it's too early for this to mean a ton.

[TDotttt2005]

UPDATE.

 

Halfway Point of the season.

 

81 GP. Jays are 45-36, .556, 1st Place 2.0 Games Ahead the Orioles in the AL East. Current Pace: 90 Wins.

 

Pythagorean W-L

R:385

RA 349

pW% = .549

pW = 88.92

pL = 73.07

 

89-73. Looks like we're OVER performing our pythagorean record.

 

As for the prediction contest:

 

Northof49, sAAviour, and theblujay all predicted 90 wins.

 

Atothe 12

Nabru 66

The DH 76

Over500 77

TheHurl 77

BTS 78

Dylan 79

Belliss10 79

bowld 80

Eddiek19 80

King 82

Olerud363 82

John_Havok 82

Gen.disarray 82

FrenchSoup 83

TDotttt2005 83

Anemic0ffense 83

jaysfan2014 83

Angryrioter 83

JfAs 84

GordieDougie 84

Sammy225 85

Havok24 85

orgfiller 85

ElNik2013 85

Spittin@Umpz12 86

Gsnarls 86

Jays_Fever 86

Fatcowxlive 87

KSaw 88

ClosetJaysFan 88

play2fade 88

Walkoff93 89

Ambomination 89

wilko 89

Gruber92 89

Northof49 90

theblujay 90

sAAviour 90

o2cui2i 91

Maahface 91

Spanky99 91

saskjayfan 91

Chappy 92

jays4life19 93

Jonn 94

awesomest 97

eastcoastjaysfan 100

Dineke 101

[G-Snarls]

I'm willing to upgrade my projection to as high as 88 wins

 

Feels just about right. The schedule in September is BRUTAL. 90+ wins is hard to fathom.

 

Whether we make the playoffs depends on, IMHO:

 

1. Orioles and Yankees performance in the second half

2. Team health (especially Bautista, Lawrie and the starting pitching staff)

3. Whether AA does anything at by the trade deadline or not

[SAAviour]

Right on track.

[GD]

Expected run differentials on fangraphs based on BaseRuns has us on pace for 84 wins and first in the division. Looking good. So is my projection lol

[Convo]

Expected run differentials on fangraphs based on BaseRuns has us on pace for 84 wins and first in the division. Looking good. So is my projection lol

 

84 wins? Gross.

[Angrioter]

bump

[kgm1]

Right now I think we will probably be around 86 wins which is the average of all the predictions. No one would have predicted the Bull Pen implosion that cost us a lot of wins. Had this team,s bullpen been as good as last years i think in spite of the injuries we would be in first place in the East.

 

Seems like this team just can't get all areas going in a single year. This year Bullpen woes. last year rotation and defense.

[TheHurl]

April 13

May 18

June 10

July 8

August 11

September 17

 

77

 

I did well with April, May and June...off in July though and August might be close. My sig prediction is doing much better.

[GD]

Blue Jays Fangraphs Projection: 84 wins

GD Projection: 84 wins

 

Bow down.

[Dylan]

After that series my 79 wins doesn't look too far off

[BigCecil]

Will go 28-13 with this roster the day Bartolo Colon flies

 

I don't know - he does kind of resemble a hot air balloon...he may be able to self levitate.

[TDotttt2005]

UPDATE.

3/4 Point of the Season.

 

122 GP. Jays are 63-59, .516, 2nd Place 7.5 Games Behind the Orioles in the AL East, 3 Games Behind in the race for the 2nd WC. Current Pace: 84 Wins.

 

Pythagorean W-L

R:542

RA 528

pW% = .513

pW = 62.596

pL = 59.404

 

63-59. ACTUAL results are in line with expected results thus far.

 

As for the prediction contest:

 

JFAS and GordieDougie both predicted 84 wins.

 

Atothe 12

Nabru 66

The DH 76

Over500 77

TheHurl 77

BTS 78

Dylan 79

Belliss10 79

bowld 80

Eddiek19 80

King 82

Olerud363 82

John_Havok 82

Gen.disarray 82

FrenchSoup 83

TDotttt2005 83

Anemic0ffense 83

jaysfan2014 83

Angryrioter 83

JfAs 84

GordieDougie 84

Sammy225 85

Havok24 85

orgfiller 85

ElNik2013 85

Spittin@Umpz12 86

Gsnarls 86

Jays_Fever 86

Fatcowxlive 87

KSaw 88

ClosetJaysFan 88

play2fade 88

Walkoff93 89

Ambomination 89

wilko 89

Gruber92 89

Northof49 90

theblujay 90

sAAviour 90

o2cui2i 91

Maahface 91

Spanky99 91

saskjayfan 91

Chappy 92

jays4life19 93

Jonn 94

awesomest 97

eastcoastjaysfan 100

Dineke 101

[Dylan]

bump.

Looks like the jays will end around the 81 mark

[Angrioter]

bump.

Looks like the jays will end around the 81 mark

 

or my 83

[BTS]

My prediction of 78 will probably be a bit short.

[G-Snarls]

Bump for final weekend

[G-Snarls]

83 looking pretty good

 

82-84 in play

 

Hurl is dumn

[Angrioter]

King 82

Olerud363 82

John_Havok 82

Gen.disarray 82

FrenchSoup 83

TDotttt2005 83

Anemic0ffense 83

jaysfan2014 83

Angrioter 83

JfAs 84

GordieDougie 84

[G-Snarls]

King 82

Olerud363 82

John_Havok 82

Gen.disarray 82

FrenchSoup 83

TDotttt2005 83

Anemic0ffense 83

jaysfan2014 83

Angrioter 83

JfAs 84

GordieDougie 84

 

No. it was "angryrioter" who picked 83. Look again.

[Anemic0ffense]

Hahaha I win... Board know-it-alls must now bow down to your new leaders Anemic0ffense and the illegal alien Angrioter!