ESPN - Santana a Panic move from Atlanta

[leaffie]

Another point of view article on the Santana signing:

 

 

 

Jerry Crasnick discusses why P Ervin Santana is a good fit for the Atlanta Braves' pitching staff.Tags: Atlanta Braves, Ervin Santana, Jerry Crasnick, contract

 

Ervin Santana-mania ended abruptly this morning, with Santana headed to the Atlanta Braves on a one-year contract worth $14.1 million. While there's a great deal of uncertainty around Santana's eventual 2014 performance, there's no such guessing about how expensive the signing is for the Braves -- very.

 

The prime motivation for Atlanta's signing of Santana is tied to the health of Kris Medlen. Taken out of a game due to elbow soreness Sunday, Medlen is heading to Dr. James Andrews to have the ligament damage in his elbow examined. Medlen is a survivor of a previous Tommy John surgery, and if he's heading for another one, his 2014 is over and the Braves are without one of their key starters in what looks to be a close National League East race with the Nationals.

 

The NL is a better fit for Santana, and his projection reflects the environment. A ZiPS outlook of 11-8 and a 3.59 ERA in 190 1/3 innings for Atlanta is one of the better team projections for Santana; when I run ZiPS in all 30 stadiums, Camden Yards and Rogers Centre, two of his rumored destinations, were two of the worst homes for Santana, ranking 27th and 29th respectively in terms of ERA compared to league average. At 2.9 projected WAR, Santana is worth his $14 million salary.

 

 

 

The big problem for the Braves is the additional cost, the loss of a first-rounder for one season of paying Santana a reasonable salary. Where the Blue Jays would lose a pick in the low 50s and the O's lost pick would be in the 90s, the Braves lose No. 26. For a team that likes to keep its payroll under $100 million and likely won't do anything crazy when it eventually moves into its new stadium, that's a real hit.

 

The pre-free-agency value for the typical 26th pick is roughly 3.5 WAR, and that amount of talent would cost $19.6 million in the free-agency market. While the majority of prospects don't succeed, the payout when they do is massive. The Braves may be missing out on the next Craig Hansen (No. 26 overall in 2005), which wouldn't be so harmful, but they could also be missing out on the next Alan Trammell (No. 26 in 1976) or Dan Plesac (1983).

 

Add the $19.6 million to the salary Santana will make in Atlanta and we're talking about a de facto $33.7 million preliminary cost for one season of Santana's services. In one way of looking at it, Santana is the most expensive pitcher over the course of a single season in baseball history. While there's at least a chance that the Braves get another pick on the back end of the signing if they give Santana a qualifying offer next season, that's far from a certainty.

 

After all, Santana, who posted an ERA above 5.00 in 2009 and 2012, got limited interest coming off the best ERA of his career and nobody had the stomach to lose a first-rounder for him. There's no reason to think that would be any different next season unless he is significantly better than he was in 2013. Santana's experience dealing with an ice-cold market after turning down a qualifying offer could make him more likely to accept one next season.

 

This is a move that smells of panic. Mike Minor may start the season on the disabled list, Gavin Floyd won't be ready to start the year, and Brandon Beachy's health is a concern. The short-term rotation looks thin behind Julio Teheran and Alex Wood, but Minor will be back and odds are at least one of Floyd and Beachy will be able to contribute. It's easy to skip the fifth starter early in the season, and there's a lot to be said of patience while you look for opportunity -- the difference between a good pitcher and Cody Martin/Freddy Garcia over the course of a month being only a handful of runs. It's not Santana or bust, after all, and if the Braves are going to pay such a high price, they may as well have it go toward a trade for David Price or Jeff Samardzija.

 

Moves made out of panic frequently turn out to be rash. This one is no exception.

[Dick_Pole]

I don't understand how this is a "panic" move on their end. If he stinks, bench him and find someone else. If he's good, the Braves have done well to sign him. A panic move is trading top prospects in poorly timed deals or signing 30-yo second basemen to 10 year $200M+ contracts. Any time you have to make Dan Plesac your second-best example to prove your point, you have not made a strong argument.

[TwistedLogic]

If he stinks, bench him and find someone else.

 

How often do you see this happen? A team benching a guy they spent this much money on in free agency? It's not nearly as easy as that. If he stinks, you bench him, and then the guy that basically owns you and the team you run comes to you and asks "Why did you just bench the guy that you promised me was worth fourteen million of my dollars?". Those draft picks are more valuable to teams like the Braves. It's not that far-fetched to say it was a panic move.

 

It is a bit ridiculous to insinuate that Santana has the most expensive single season pitching contract in history though...

[Dick_Pole]

How isn't it panic? They paid over $20M when you factor in the pick.

 

This "opportunity cost" view is a little overdone. You know how they are going to get around the loss of the pick? Through good drafting and development like they always do. Now you could come back and say that good drafting and development would mean the pick is worth even MORE to the Braves. But my counterpoint to that would be based on their history, chances are when 2020 comes around they'll have done well enough with their prospects that the pick lost in 2014 doesn't mean a heck of a lot.

[Dick_Pole]

How often do you see this happen? A team benching a guy they spent this much money on in free agency? It's not nearly as easy as that. If he stinks, you bench him, and then the guy that basically owns you and the team you run comes to you and asks "Why did you just bench the guy that you promised me was worth fourteen million of my dollars?". Those draft picks are more valuable to teams like the Braves. It's not that far-fetched to say it was a panic move.

 

It is a bit ridiculous to insinuate that Santana has the most expensive single season pitching contract in history though...

 

True...but then you have to weigh in the probabilities of him being total garbage versus at least adequate for a rotation spot. Chances are pretty good he'll be at least an ok inning eater in the NL East. The benching scenario is relatively unlikely. Now if you thought the benching scenario could be fairly high and you still sign him, I think that could be classified as a panic move.

[JFD]

AA sounds like he's gonna cry LOL