The 2014 Josh Johnson Thread

[Spoonovic]

I would have QOed him for sure, but man, I'm glad the Jays didn't now.

 

It's weird, and SSS, but so many of the FA trade prospect pitchers tied to the Jays during the offseason haven't worked out. Santana the glaring exception. And I guess Tanaka. But JJ, Ubaldo, etc., are sucking. Anderson from the A's, is on the DL. Lincecum, who way back before he re-signed seemed like a fit, has sucked.

 

The Twins signed a bunch of middling SP, and they are sucking.

 

So far standing pat has sort of worked.

 

Is AA smarter than we thought he was?

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

The baseball market perform medicals, we don't.

 

I believe it's an emotional aspect that we all have that we want to identify bargains and be able to say we picked a guy if he turns out. It's just not always smart for real teams to operate on that level though. It seems that the Jays have a legit salary cap ( I don't agree with them on this but it seems real ). On that basis alone, there is no way you pay Johnson $14M to pitch one year given his injury history. As someone else correctly noted, we already have Morrow in that category ( plus Hutch and add McGowan now ).

[Atothe]

Jeff Passan ‏@JeffPassan ·50 mins

Sources: Padres worried Josh Johnson needs Tommy John surgery. Would be 22nd known case in Year of Tommy John

[Terminator]

so when we play armchair, we should just assume healthy.

 

Why do we have to assume that a pitcher with an injury-riddled career is all of the sudden at age 30 going to be healthy going forward?

 

Only thing we can debate is the quality of his pitching.

 

Your average fan can look at a player's medical history (especially one as extensive as Johnson's) and age and factor that in to whether or not they think he is worth X million. It's going to be far from an exact science but I think it's more fair than just assuming everyone is going to be healthy all season.

[jb22]

Regardless Terminator, he was worth the gamble of a QO

 

Is that a fact?

[eastcoastjaysfan]

And maybe the FO knew there were legitimate health concerns and not making it was the right call, but not making the QO because of his performance would have been dumb. We as the public don't have enough info on medical reports and injuries, so when we play armchair, we should just assume healthy.

 

Of course the FO knew there were legitimate health concerns. The entire league knew there were legitimate health concerns.

 

I credit them for not qualifying him but it was absolutely ridiculous to acquire the guy in the first place. Aging, injury prone guy who only has one year left on his contract. Perfect trade target WTF.

 

At least they knew when to cut their losses. Doesn't at all make up for the stupid trade but things could've been a lot worse.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Why not if he passes all medicals? It's not like any of his previous injuries are chronic. He's a pitcher, they get hurt, it happens, see 21 other pitchers this year.

 

Medicals are incredibly subjective. Opinions always vary from team to team.

 

There is enough data out there to show that this guy cannot hold up over an entire season.

[NorthOf49]

I'm a poet, I'm a prophet, I'm the resurrector, I'm the savior of the message board world.

 

I'm king of the world! I'm pretty! I'm a bad man! I shook up the world!

 

It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

 

I'm the greatest. I said that even before I knew I was.

You're on quite the streak, to be honest. I have to give credit where it's due.

[Eragon]

This isn't black and white, "healthy" "unhealthy" stuff. It also isn't "if it's in medical reports, it's true."

 

Every pitcher's arm looks like poo, in some respect. All that wear and tear. There are micro-tears, slight tears, inflammation, scar tissue, etc. all up in that mother. Every arm is different. Every body is different. Different pressure points. Different motions. Different placement, length, etc. of ligaments, tendons, muscles and bones.

 

And MRIs and X-rays don't always pick up on everything. There's only so much a "medical report" can tell you. And all pitchers have risk, but you don't even know what the risks are or are not, beyond the obvious.

 

But what you do have is actual manifestations of issues. You can't argue with those. And when you have repetition, yes, that is generally more predictive.

 

That's what you had here. A guy who keeps having arm problems. They aren't "chronic" in the way the same thing keeps happening, exactly as it was, and to the same exact area. They aren't "chronic" in the way arthritis is chronic. But they are frequent (in pitching injury terms). And, actually, worse, is that they are scattered. All parts of the arm. It screams out "huge underlying issue" - either his body is injury prone, or his mechanics cause him to be injury prone. It exists. It's a thing. He's had past arm injuries. He's had surgeries. He had a shoulder injury which was not repaired surgically, and which resulted in decreased velo. The season after coming back from this, he had multiple arm issues.

 

There's simply no way that's not a huge warning sign ... even if the medicals come back as sufficiently positive that there is no sign of current or impending doom. It's Russian Roulette with a 6 shooter and 3 bullets. It's not a question of "if," but a question of "when" the next serious arm injury, or series of nagging injuries, will manifest with a guy like that.

 

To assume good health. Or to assume that a green lighted medical report would indicate a normal injury risk going forward, is ... well, not smart. Even if you can't concoct a statistical analysis to prove it's validity. Too many variables. Sometimes you have to use what is commonly mislabeled as "intuition" and is really just deductive reasoning skills that can't be easily quantified because of too many variable at play and/or too many degrees of difference interacting with each other not allowing most statistical analyses to capture the correct snapshot. He could have made it through this season without issue, sure. But it's a ticking time bomb. You don't want to play with it. You don't want to pay $14M, or $8M, to play with it.

 

I can't believe you've done this.

[Caper]

 

I credit them for not qualifying him but it was absolutely ridiculous to acquire the guy in the first place.

 

 

Yes, yes.... a sentiment you made perfectly clear at the time of the trade when you said.

 

LETS ALL START THE AA FELLATIO TRAIN, IM IN FRONT

 

or

 

I DONT EVEN CARE IF ITS GOSE OR MARISNICK

 

WITH LIKE ONE MORE F*CKING BAT WE ARE CONTENDERS

 

THIS IS MIND BLOWING

 

 

 

Holy f***.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Yes, yes.... a sentiment you made perfectly clear at the time of the trade when you said.

 

 

 

or

 

 

 

 

 

Holy f***.

 

Hahahaha

[Eragon]

Hahahaha

 

For your reading pleasure:

 

http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?tsn=292&nav=messages&webtag=ml-bluejays&tid=87162

 

Wow so many gold quotes.... And everyone was blowing their loads.

 

SIR_BJAY:

 

Really hope Gose stays, that would just be irresponsible.

 

ECJF:

 

JAYS JUST STEPPED UP FROM THE MINOR LEAGUES TO THE BIG LEAGUES

 

THIS IS THE TURNING POINT IN THE FRANCHISE

 

GRANT (rational post):

 

I don't think I like this any more, it's just way too much talent going the other way for too many bad salaries. I would have rather just moved Marisnick and Nicolino or something for Johnson and Bonifacio and left it at that.

 

Lipchitz (another rational post):

 

'm going to hold my tongue until the deal is done but, this doesn't seem like a win to me.

 

BTS:

 

WE CONTENDER NOW

 

FATCOW:

 

+1

 

IF PEOPLE ARN'T EXCITED THEY ARE DUMN

 

TIEM TO FAP PPL!

 

JAYSZEE:

 

lol Cecil gone too

 

Thank god

 

Whew!

Edited April 17, 2014 by Eragon

[Deadpool]

For your reading pleasure:

 

http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?tsn=292&nav=messages&webtag=ml-bluejays&tid=87162

 

Wow so many gold quotes.... And everyone was blowing their loads.

 

SIR_BJAY:

 

 

 

ECJF:

 

 

 

GRANT (rational post):

 

 

 

Lipchitz (another rational post):

 

 

 

BTS:

 

 

 

FATCOW:

 

 

 

JAYSZEE:

 

BrandonTheTool:

I WAS TOTALLY BANHAMMERED AT THIS POINT

[ElNik2013]

For your reading pleasure:

 

http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?tsn=292&nav=messages&webtag=ml-bluejays&tid=87162

 

Wow so many gold quotes.... And everyone was blowing their loads.

 

SIR_BJAY:

 

 

 

ECJF:

 

 

 

GRANT (rational post):

 

 

 

Lipchitz (another rational post):

 

 

 

BTS:

 

 

 

FATCOW:

 

 

 

JAYSZEE:

 

 

 

 

Good find. This is what I remember as well. the Dickey trade was frowned upon for the most part, but not the Marlins trade, for the most part again. And yes, some of the quotes there are gold.

[NorthOf49]

Made me go looking back. Found this: http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?nav=messages&webtag=ml-bluejays&tid=84935 Fatash is a prophet!

 

Also, LOL at how excited we all got about the Miami trade. That was a lot of fun at the time.

[Eragon]

Made me go looking back. Found this: http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?nav=messages&webtag=ml-bluejays&tid=84935 Fatash is a prophet!

 

Also, LOL at how excited we all got about the Miami trade. That was a lot of fun at the time.

 

Who is Fatash here?

[Caper]

Yip..... BTS and Hurl, were the only ones not blowing their load on the trade

[ElNik2013]

No big deal, it was a risky move and it hasn't paid off. I don't know why anyone would deny they liked the move at the time. I maintain it was the Dickey trade where AA really f***ed up.

[Eragon]

No big deal, it was a risky move and it hasn't paid off. I don't know why anyone would deny they liked the move at the time. I maintain it was the Dickey trade where AA really f***ed up.

 

But the Miama deal really cost us financially.... the Reyes/Buehrle contracts are just dumn. Escobar actually provides more value for a fraction of the cost (considering Reyes is always injuried).

[Caper]

No big deal, it was a risky move and it hasn't paid off. I don't know why anyone would deny they liked the move at the time. I maintain it was the Dickey trade where AA really f***ed up.

 

Yeah... overpay for sure. But is T'Arnaud stock dropping? Noah looks like he might be a beast though.

[Terminator]

 

Something else, from Terminator:

 

""LOL

 

"Gregor Chisholm ?@gregorMLB

I can't help but wonder what John Farrell must be thinking right now. #BlueJays""

 

Haha! We should crush the Sox next year."

 

Oh god...

[vic city]

LOL

 

MLB News Today @MLBNewsToday

 

Padres' Johnson set for second Tommy John surgery http://dlvr.it/5TGTtx

2:08 PM - 23 Apr 2014

[Anemic0ffense]

^Advanced statistics nerds still won't admit defeat.

[vic city]

So...just to clarify...he doesn't pitch an inning, gets $8.0M this year and another $4.0M next year. No chance in hell he comes back to be an effective pitcher next year.

 

A good chunk of you wanted him qualified! What a joke. Best move AA has made in a while not qualifying JJ...even though it was his own mistake he was correcting.

[JaysFan75]

Advanced stats has nothing to do with injury???

 

A good reason why stats don't tell the entire story

[Anemic0ffense]

A good reason why stats don't tell the entire story

 

Yep

[NorthOf49]

They should have offered him the QO. Nothing can change that.

[The_DH]

It was the right move to non qualify but it was made for the wrong reason.

[Terminator]

They should have offered him the QO. Nothing can change that.

 

Best he could get was 8 mil on the open market. Why should the Jays have given him almost double that? Especially with his injury history.

 

I just wish all those on the JJ QO bandwagon would admit defeat so we can move on.

[z3r0s]

They should have offered him the QO. Nothing can change that.

 

Not quite right... one thing could. More in depth medical knowledge than we have.