AL East O/U odds

[Stangstag]

I'm a bit confused about the scale. Chris Davis is 5 greaterthans better than Edwin while Bautista is only 4 greaterthans better than Markakis.

 

Davis is not actually that much better than Edwin. He MAJORLY dropped off in the second half.

[Stangstag]

Wholly enjoying Navarro > Wieters and Melky < Cruz.

 

Lol yeah. In what world is Navarro better than Weiters?

[Abomination]

Davis is not actually that much better than Edwin. He MAJORLY dropped off in the second half.

 

Davis had a better year last year, but that 30% k rate is rather worrisome going forward.

[Angrioter]

The first part is super pessimistic. You think there's more chance that the O's bullpen overachive and the Jays BP breaks down compared to the opposite? Come on lol

 

I forgot about Schoop, but Weeks has no real upside anymore lol the dude has no real tools other than speed.

 

Not really, The O's IMO are as scrambled for rotation spots. If anything, if both rotations are healthy the Jays easily outpreform the O's. If Dickey can hit that 2012 stride he'll outpreform everyone on that O's rotation. I believe Morrow will bounce back, and if he does, he and Buherle are better than the rest of the O's rotation in terms of quality (except for Jimenez I mean). Hutchinson has the chance to be a real treat, and one of Happ/Redmond will suffice as a #5.

 

I also believe that our offence is way stronger than that of the O's:

 

Navarro > Wieters

EE <<<<< Davis

Goins <<< Schoop

Lawrie = Machado (real chance of this if Lawrie puts everything together)

Reyes >>> Hardy

Melky < Cruz (Melky put up a 87 wRC+ with his tumor while Cruz had a near-career norm 122 wRC+ on da juice)

Rasmus >> Jones

Bautista >>>> Markakis

Lind >>> Reimold

 

http://i1.ytimg.com/vi/ZFyWe2-xah0/hqdefault.jpg

[Abomination]

What the hell kind of sites does Ang browse on all day

[fatcowxlive]

Ahem:

 

I find your uses of greater and less than signs shocking and disturbing.

 

Where were you on the old forum? I used those constantly!

 

I'm a bit confused about the scale. Chris Davis is 5 greaterthans better than Edwin while Bautista is only 4 greaterthans better than Markakis.

Fatcow, wtf is this?

 

It's not scientific! It's supposed to only give a general idea. Also I think I over exaggerated Davis too.

 

I'm trying to wrap my had around Navarro being greater than Wieters...

Wholly enjoying Navarro > Wieters and Melky < Cruz.

Lol yeah. In what world is Navarro better than Weiters?

 

Well last year at least. Using the forum's favourite offensive indicator, wRC+, Navarro put up 136 vs Wieter's 86. Also the 136 is higher than any single season that Matt has. Also take into account that this is offence, not defence. Also Oliver and Streamer are higher on Navarro than Wieters, and hitters generally do better in the Rogers Center vs. before.

[fatcowxlive]

Pretty much every projection system (excluding the wacko Oliver) says EE > Davis.

 

ok then I admit, I f***ed up on that. I think everything else is good though lol

[Angrioter]

Ahem:

 

 

 

Where were you on the old forum? I used those constantly!

 

 

 

 

It's not scientific! It's supposed to only give a general idea. Also I think I over exaggerated Davis too.

 

 

 

 

 

Well last year at least. Using the forum's favourite offensive indicator, wRC+, Navarro put up 136 vs Wieter's 86. Also the 136 is higher than any single season that Matt has. Also take into account that this is offence, not defence. Also Oliver and Streamer are higher on Navarro than Wieters, and hitters generally do better in the Rogers Center vs. before.

 

Edwin (13.1% BB and 12% last 2 years) is the Pujols of this generation (within the context)!

[jays4life19]

Moogy projections link please.

 

He projected Boston first and the Jays to be terrible last year..... " on another site" Dude knows his s***.

[Abomination]

I also don't think he realizes a 4.00 ERA in Toronto is an above average pitcher.

 

I think there's a couple people in this thread who don't realize he's trolling

[fatcowxlive]

tldr

 

tldr I ran out of points so I'mma ramble

[crmr]

The point wasn't that you were wrong to speak in definitive terms. People do that all the time when they're talking about things that are effectively guaranteed to happen. You weren't doing that. You were speaking in definitive terms about your belief that a 6-win pitcher in 2012 has no potential to be more than a 2-win pitcher in 2014.

 

"I don't feel like you're smart enough to know that your point is completely irrelevant to the actual thesis of my statement, which didn't rely on the comparative likelihood of a particular event, but instead on a distance from a threshold of probability far enough away to consider all such events past said threshold as "certain" not to happen. And the exaggeration re Goins and JPA was purposeful, so as to avoid anyone wrong-mindedly trying to debate the merits of a particular statement, rather than grasping the overall thesis of "improbable enough to be impossible, regardless of just how improbable."

 

I think you're misunderstanding his notions of 'probability far enough away'

 

It might be a sensitive issue Moogy, but the problem isn't others, it's you.