Atlantis sportsbook 2014: Over/under for BlueJays 77.5 W

[TheHurl]

Had a bad experience with B365 or something? I love that site.

 

Nope just goes back to who I started with. SI is a pain in the ass for withdrawal's but I went through the process to get my account verified (and now withdrawals are instantaneous) so I stick with them.

[TheHurl]

So $5 US?

 

I looked it up as I was thinking I'd book his bets for him (I didn't like several of his wagers) and that 10k pesos would be small but it's actually $254 CDN.

 

As for the wager itself, they are fun to play but considering they pay out under even money and the wager won't be paid out for 8 months they really aren't worth it unless you are betting bigger than I'm willing to put down. That's why I loved it when SI used to let me parlay them.

[AngryBird]

81 wins for this team certainly won't be a "miracle". 80-85 is an average projection.

 

Enjoy cheering for us to suck?

 

Better than cheering for us to win and have the team blow up in my face year after year and hear the same old excuses. You're out of your mind if you find anyone predicting this team to win 85 wins. This is the worst team in the AL East by a wide margin, how on earth would anyone project 85 wins? But keep believing everything AA and co. are shoving down your throat, you probably ate up the BS Riccardi was spewing for years also.

[jays4life19]

 

Maybe you should ask Steamers.

[jays4life19]

Better than cheering for us to win and have the team blow up in my face year after year and hear the same old excuses. You're out of your mind if you find anyone predicting this team to win 85 wins. This is the worst team in the AL East by a wide margin, how on earth would anyone project 85 wins? But keep believing everything AA and co. are shoving down your throat, you probably ate up the BS Riccardi was spewing for years also.

 

It's a little old. We're probably projected around 84 now.

 

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2014/01/02/offseason-power-rankings-jan-2/

 

Maybe Chris can do an update soon?

[GNick]

I'd do $1000 on the over

 

That line will move up several wins over the next few weeks

 

Odds aren't much though

[connorp]

I think people are making same mistake writing off NY like they did BOS last year.

 

CC, Tanaka, Kuroda, Nova, Pineda has high potential.. Still have backemd BP guys

Lineup has McCann, Jacoby, Beltran, Gardner, Soriano.. Jeter and Tex may contribute

 

It's a playoff team (WC at least)

[Angrioter]

Nah, worst infield in baseball.

 

Your next masterpiece.

How many runs will cost to the Yankees-pitching that crappy infield

[Abomination]

I think people are making same mistake writing off NY like they did BOS last year.

 

CC, Tanaka, Kuroda, Nova, Pineda has high potential.. Still have backemd BP guys

Lineup has McCann, Jacoby, Beltran, Gardner, Soriano.. Jeter and Tex may contribute

 

It's a playoff team (WC at least)

 

It might be if things go right, but CC didn't look great last year, Tanaka is completely unproven, Kuroda is 39, and Pineda missed the last 2 years to injury. Soriano is a bit of a question mark himself, as is Jeter and whoever they play at 2nd and 3rd. There's enough that could go wrong with that team for them to wind up anywhere from first to last in the division.

[connorp]

It might be if things go right, but CC didn't look great last year, Tanaka is completely unproven, Kuroda is 39, and Pineda missed the last 2 years to injury. Soriano is a bit of a question mark himself, as is Jeter and whoever they play at 2nd and 3rd. There's enough that could go wrong with that team for them to wind up anywhere from first to last in the division.

 

Yeah, I see them as the second tier WC type team that has the squad to make the postseason..but sure, ita hardly in the bag. I just said the same of Boston last year. Didn't think they were best in baseball though

[connorp]

Nah, worst infield in baseball.

 

Salaries aside.. I'd take Tex over Lind, whoever over RG and MI.. But Reyes over DJ even if healthy and Lawrie over KJ..

but there aren't any huge blowouts anywhere. OF goes to NY. DH Jays but NY will be solid there.

I just think NY's pitching is better on the average day and they also have way more upside

 

Oh and C is also big NY win

[connorp]

Your next masterpiece.

How many runs will cost to the Yankees-pitching that crappy infield

 

Still take NY defensively at C. 1b, OF as a whole for sure (NY CF/LF >> Jays) Jays better at SS but hardly good there, 3rd base and possibly 2nd.. We dont even know who will play 2b. RG might not make more than 20 starts before eating sent down for MI, if he even starts that ia

[awsomest]

I think people are making same mistake writing off NY like they did BOS last year.

 

CC, Tanaka, Kuroda, Nova, Pineda has high potential.. Still have backemd BP guys

Lineup has McCann, Jacoby, Beltran, Gardner, Soriano.. Jeter and Tex may contribute

 

It's a playoff team (WC at least)

 

see the thing with Boston is every single thing went right. I mean if what happened to the redsox happened to the jays this year Morrow would pitch 32 games along with Romero and McGowan all with sub 3.5 era's and our position players would stay healthy. If I had a dollar for everything that went right for the red sox last year I would be able to afford to get drunk off skydome beers.

[connorp]

I always liked Clay B (went off the board to draft him in L3). I always thought he had swing and miss stuff that would develop so I wasnt shocked there. He also got hurt like he was supposed to. The only surprise on the entire staff to me was Lackey.. That was way out of left field..other than that..no big suprise really.

[GD]

but sure, it's hardly in the bag.

 

Coming after you said:

 

It's a playoff team (WC at least)

 

Which one do you believe, exactly?

[connorp]

Coming after you said:

 

 

 

Which one do you believe, exactly?

 

When I said "WC team at least" .. I meant I saw them as a WC team.. Not that they were a bonafide division champ squad that would "at least be a WC".... I was going to edit that as I saw the double meaning but obviously didn't.

 

Anyways, I don't think they need everything to right to get to the WC but sure, they can't have a lot of flop years/injuries like most teams. I do think they have BOS upside though if that rotation kills it

[TheHurl]

Just found an old tweet from 2012 that I had. I guess people should have listened to me. I know I picked the Jays for an under last year on the other board but it's so hard to search on that thing now. and the stats remain...teams that are picked to increase their win total by 10 or more hit the under over 90% of the time.

 

[TheHurl]

For the record the two teams this year posted at 10 wins more than last year are the White Sox and San Fran. Honestly I'd struggle to bet the under on either one even though history says to do so.

[xposbrad]

Why would we ask Steamer? Has anyone produced anything showing that his team projections are any more accurate than a dart board, or any random schmoe who follows baseball and doesn't drool on him/herself?

 

Here are his 2013 projections. How did that turn out? I think my wife could have picked better.

 

http://www.chatsports.com/new-york-yankees/a/The-2013-MLB-Projection-Blowout-Steamer-Edition-2-7606746

[Dick_Pole]

Here are his 2013 projections. How did that turn out? I think my wife could have picked better.

 

http://www.chatsports.com/new-york-yankees/a/The-2013-MLB-Projection-Blowout-Steamer-Edition-2-7606746

 

Well to be fair I think the Jays over/under last year was 91....so technically you would have hit the bet with an under

[jays4life19]

Here are his 2013 projections. How did that turn out? I think my wife could have picked better.

 

http://www.chatsports.com/new-york-yankees/a/The-2013-MLB-Projection-Blowout-Steamer-Edition-2-7606746

 

I see your point but strongly disagree.

 

If you were smart enough to use Steamers as a guideline to bet the over/under on the Vegas odds you're going to be profitable.

 

Obviously in hindsight there are alot of misses. Please let me know if you or your wife predicted the Jays to come in last or the Red Sox to come in first? Projection systems can't count for injuries, dramatic drop offs ( Pujols, Hamilton ect) but neither can you or your wife.

 

this is a portion of an article that one of my favorite sports handicapper wrote.

 

Juice, and the power of 55%

 

"Even though most sports bettors are losers in their own right (as a whole, bettors actually win an average of only 48% of their bets - less than they would expect to win if they just flipped a coin for every game), their losses are compounded by the fact that the house takes a cut of winnings, also known as the 'juice' or 'vig.' Most sports books charge a 10% commission on wins, which means that a bettor must actually win 52.4% of his games just to break even. (Wagering $100 per game, a bettor loses $100 with a loss and wins $90.91 with a win, so he must go 11-10 (11/21 = 52.38%) to break even). Recently, some online books have started to offer lower juice, betting exchanges and deposit bonuses, which reduce the house edge.

 

In order to beat the juice and win in sports betting, a bettor must employ a disciplined approach in their analysis of each game using methods that have proven to be successful in the long run. I discuss my math models and analytical metrics in my Handicapping Methods essay, but you must realize that only the best and most knowledgeable handicappers can win more than 52.4% of their games. In their 2007 two page article about my handicapping success, the Wall Street Journal wrote, "...fewer than 100 people can sustain (win rates of 55%) over time. Most of them belong to professional betting syndicates that hire teams of statisticians, wager millions every week and keep their operations secret." Even fewer bettors can hit 55-56%

 

Touts often claim to be able to hit 60% or higher, but as I explain in my essay on Bayesian Probability, anyone who tells you that their long term expected winning percentage is higher than 60% is deluding themselves. For a bettor to claim a greater than 60% long term expected win percentage, that would be mean that Vegas would have to consistently release lines with egregious errors, and that simply just does not happen often enough for claims of greater than 60% long term expected win percentages to be caused anything other than blind, short-term luck."

 

- Dr Bob

 

Steamers does hit at around a 55% percent clip. For the average joe that might not seem very impressive but for someone who bets on sports it's quite profitable. If you want to try and beat the over/under with the Vegas odds vs Steamers projections see how you do?

[xposbrad]

Steamers does hit at around a 55% percent clip. For the average joe that might not seem very impressive but for someone who bets on sports it's quite profitable. If you want to try and beat the over/under with the Vegas odds vs Steamers projections see how you do?

 

I understand your point. The bottom line is, it's not a perfect science, and while steamer does have a method and strategy behind his numbers, it still is far from perfect and only 5% above 50 percent in that sample. Good for betters but not good enough to be used as often as it is on these boards.

[jays4life19]

Sixth, the Sox being very underrated and the Jays being very overrated last year was a no brainer. Before the season started.

 

lol pretty easy to say after the season.

 

So, Moogy - who are the no brainers for the 2014 season?

 

Also, if you picked every steamers projection for last year with the Vegas odds you would have made money. I don't know how that can be "horrid"

[GD]

I think Moogy should come up with his own projections and at the end of the year we'll compare them to ZiPS and JFaS'.

[Anemic0ffense]

 

Wow. I'd bet the house on that... Seriously.

[jays4life19]

Classic examples of hindsight bias in this thread.

 

Whenever vegas comes out with a line it's designed to get 50% of the public to bet one side and 50% of the public to bet the other. They charge a 10% commission on the bet so no matter who wins the bookkeeper takes home 10%.

 

If you ever see a handicapper or projection system for that matter say a pick or projection is a "no brainier" " lock" "sure thing" you know they have no credibility because there is no such thing. The worlds best handicapper or projection systems use mathematical formula's to gain a slight edge over the general public. It will never be perfect because of the variance that exists in sport outcomes.

 

Statistics have no personal bias at the end of the day.

[Anemic0ffense]

For the 2012 season? I don't think you would have.

 

Ah. I thought that was for this year lol. Nvm.

[jays4life19]

Where are the classic examples of hindsight bias?

 

Yes, we all understand the basics of gambling. We don't drool on ourselves.

 

No, it ruins your credibility to say they have no credibility because of those statements. Why? Because everyone knows they're exaggerating for effect and that there are no true "sure things."

 

Statistics OF COURSE have personal bias in their usage, because someone ... a person ... derived these statistics and selected them as illustrative. That, of course, is personal bias, times two.

 

This focus on gambling and over/under is missing the larger point that the projection systems produce nonsense to the same general degree as any schmoe who was making the "obvious" picks. There was nothing, on the whole, to be gained by looking at Steamer in terms of overall team quality. Jays, Rays, Tigers, Angels, Rangers, Nats, Braves, Reds, Giants, Dodgers. Those were the predicted playoff teams. You consult any of those silly sportswriter predictions, and those teams were the consensus selections, with teams like the A's, Yanks and Cards are possible contenders. Steamer missed just the same. And an alleged 55% v. 52% advantage in gambling doesn't mean dick in that regard.

 

Alright. Just so I'm clear.

 

Your opinion is that projection systems are useless. Sports writers/analysts opinions are useless. Just how were you able to so accurately predict the Red Sox coming first and the Jays being terrible "on the other site?" Also, what's your logic in thinking that the Jays are a " no brainier" to win less then 77.5 games.

 

Also since you have the benefit of having watched the 2013 season when answering those questions. Why don't you tell me some more "no brainers" for the 2014 season since you seem to know it all.

[jays4life19]

Speaking of sports writers opinions.

 

I was watching MLB network and this one analyst who called himself a "SABR" kinda guy was arguing that you can't consider Choo a "great" left fielder because he was lacking in the RBI stat line. It was pretty hilarious.

[TheHurl]

Wow. I'd bet the house on that... Seriously.

 

I'd bet the house on all the bets if I could find someone willing to take over under action on the 2012 season.