Jays' odds to win AL Pennant/World Series

[Dick_Pole]

Remember the good old days of this time last year where the Jays were consistently top 3 favs to win everything according to Vegas? Well not this year! With essentially the same team, only the White Sox, Astros and Twins have worse odds to win the AL Pennant this year. Jays are on the same level as the Phillies for the World Series. I'd put some money on them as a value pick if I actually thought they had a shot in hell of winning.

 

This should be a pretty grim reality check for anyone convinced that this team is an 85+ win team. With the Jays predicted to be the least likely in the division and 4th least likely in the league to win, unless the American League dominates interleague play or those bottom three teams lose well over 100+ games, no way are the Jays expected to come close to 85 wins. Once season win totals come up I might bet on the over if it comes in the 75-77 win range as these odds would imply. I think they can beat that, but not much higher.

 

 

Here are the odds for each:

 

AL Pennant:

 

 

Baltimore Orioles 11

Boston Red Sox 6

Chicago White Sox 31

Cleveland Indians 13

Detroit Tigers 4.85

Houston Astros 126

Kansas City Royals 16

Los Angeles Angels 7

Minnesota Twins 51

New York Yankees 11

Oakland Athletics 9

Seattle Mariners 13

Tampa Bay Rays 9

Texas Rangers 9

Toronto Blue Jays 21

 

World Series:

 

 

Arizona Diamondbacks 21

Atlanta Braves 19

Baltimore Orioles 26

Boston Red Sox 9

Chicago Cubs 81

Chicago White Sox 66

Cincinnati Reds 16

Cleveland Indians 26

Colorado Rockies 66

Detroit Tigers 6

Houston Astros 301

Kansas City Royals 31

Los Angeles Angels 16

Los Angeles Dodgers 6

Miami Marlins 201

Milwaukee Brewers 66

Minnesota Twins 126

New York Mets 101

New York Yankees 16

Oakland Athletics 16

Philadelphia Phillies 41

Pittsburgh Pirates 26

San Diego Padres 66

San Francisco Giants 21

Seattle Mariners 26

St Louis Cardinals 9

Tampa Bay Rays 21

Texas Rangers 16

Toronto Blue Jays 41

Washington Nationals 9

[z3r0s]

thats really too bad... these pre-season odds are generally pretty accurate....

 

oh wait.

[GD]

lol

[Dick_Pole]

As far as the other teams are concerned - if you consider that the average odds would be 30-1, I think Washington, the Yankees, Angels and D'backs are overvalued but Tanaka signing would change my mind on the Yankees. The Braves, Royals, Rays and Pirates have pretty good value imo.

 

 

Seattle is hilarious, with all their spending Vegas gives them a slightly above average chance of 26-1 lol. The same as the Indians and I think that's about right.

[awsomest]

The only thing that has changed is the jays have gone from the worst value bet last year to the best value bet. They are more underrated then they were overrated last year.

[TheHurl]

Betting odds pretty much represent the casual fan though process.

[dineke]

Yep they should be above 30-1.

 

But it's the Jays.

[G-Snarls]

Looks like this would be the year to bet $100 on them

[G-Snarls]

LOL @ Mariners 13-1.

 

But they signed ROBINSON f***ING CAH-NOOOOO!

 

What, are you suggesting that WASN'T all they needed to do to be a contender???

[Dick_Pole]

But they signed ROBINSON f***ING CAH-NOOOOO!

 

What, are you suggesting that WASN'T all they needed to do to be a contender???

 

13-1 to win the pennant. 26-1 to win the World Series. Barely above average...at least Alex successfully created the illusion of a top contender last year.

[Dick_Pole]

The only thing that has changed is the jays have gone from the worst value bet last year to the best value bet. They are more underrated then they were overrated last year.

 

I hate doing long shot bets...but like I said the win total is probably going to be 75-77 wins. If it's less than 77 I'm going to bet about $5K on the over. The thought process for the casual fan who doesn't know the team well is that the team won 74 last year and they lost their starting catcher and a top pitcher.

[Nox]

LOL @ Mariners 13-1.

 

Jesus.

 

I really wish there was an efficient way to short that on a large scale. If that's what the betting market thinks, they're a bunch of f***tards.

[KingKat]

Betting odds pretty much represent the casual fan though process.

 

Bingo. They really should be called betting lines because saying odds implies probabilities and probabilities don't factor in them at all.

[connorp]

Bingo. They really should be called betting lines because saying odds implies probabilities and probabilities don't factor in them at all.

 

Well.. they're mutual odds but at some point a process was involved to set the lines and it goes from there. Think the NFL point spread system

[ILDD]

This is a good time to remind people that all the odds represent is how much money bookies have taken on each team.

 

All the odds really do is to try and guarantee that the bookies will win whatever the outcome.

 

21/1 just means that your "average" punter hasn't seen any flashy moves by the Jays so they're not betting on them. They've seen the Mariners get Cano and have bet on them purely for that reason.

[Dick_Pole]

This is a good time to remind people that all the odds represent is how much money bookies have taken on each team.

 

All the odds really do is to try and guarantee that the bookies will win whatever the outcome.

 

21/1 just means that your "average" punter hasn't seen any flashy moves by the Jays so they're not betting on them. They've seen the Mariners get Cano and have bet on them purely for that reason.

 

I don't know if people are misreading this or what, but Seattle has a 26 to 1 odds to win the World Series, the same with Cleveland and just barely above average. People aren't betting on them that much and I think where they are (middle of the pack) is about right.

[ILDD]

I don't know if people are misreading this or what, but Seattle has a 26 to 1 odds to win the World Series, the same with Cleveland and just barely above average. People aren't betting on them that much and I think where they are (middle of the pack) is about right.

 

I was looking at the AL pennant odds.

[connorp]

So considering these odds.. if you bet a $100.. and it's not a big deal if you lose it but you don't want to spend it like a lottery ticket either.. who are you taking?

 

for AL pennant I mean

 

If I didn't hate the NYY.. I may take them at 11-1

[ILDD]

So considering these odds.. if you bet a $100.. and it's not a big deal if you lose it but you don't want to spend it like a lottery ticket either.. who are you taking?

 

for AL pennant I mean

 

If I didn't hate the NYY.. I may take them at 11-1

 

Boringly I'd take Detroit. They are a good team in a bad division and they look an almost certainty to make the playoffs as division winners. I'll always take a team that's going to be in the final four over a team in a good division that need to play a lot more good teams to have a chance.

[connorp]

Boringly I'd take Detroit. They are a good team in a bad division and they look an almost certainty to make the playoffs as division winners. I'll always take a team that's going to be in the final four over a team in a good division that need to play a lot more good teams to have a chance.

 

Certainly the safest way not to lose. No blame in that

[Abomination]

Or you could split the bet among the teams most likely to win. As long as you pick fewer teams than the lowest of the odds, you probably have a pretty good chance of winning overall.

[TheHurl]

If I didn't hate the NYY.. I may take them at 11-1

 

I really believe the Yankees (assuming they don't add Tanaka) are set up worse than the 2013 Jays.

[TheHurl]

Boringly I'd take Detroit. They are a good team in a bad division and they look an almost certainty to make the playoffs as division winners. I'll always take a team that's going to be in the final four over a team in a good division that need to play a lot more good teams to have a chance.

 

is it a bad division?

[connorp]

I really believe the Yankees (assuming they don't add Tanaka) are set up worse than the 2013 Jays.

 

Werent you on record last year for saying how bad Bos was?

[connorp]

Everyone was.

 

Not really. I thought they were a possible playoff team with their moves.. and there were others like Dinger that praised what they did and called them contenders..there was a thread on it on the old board

[TheHurl]

Werent you on record last year for saying how bad Bos was?

 

pretty sure I said that everyone in the division would win at least 80 games.

[ILDD]

is it a bad division?

 

I think it's worse than either the AL East or West to be honest.

 

I also think that Detroit are a decent side so they should win it, getting through to the last 4 almost certainly. Their odds are 4.85:1 and I give then a 4:1 chance to win it so my money would be there.

[xposbrad]

I really believe the Yankees (assuming they don't add Tanaka) are set up worse than the 2013 Jays.

 

lol you're joking right? The Jays will finish well below the Yanks once again, Yanks will finish in first or second. Even with the loss of Cano, no other team in the East has done anything. At least they added some key pieces and have some guys coming back from injury and I believe Tex will come back stronger than last year. No chance they will be even remotely as bad as the Jays were last year.

[Angrioter]

lol you're joking right? The Jays will finish well below the Yanks once again, Yanks will finish in first or second. Even with the loss of Cano, no other team in the East has done anything. At least they added some key pieces and have some guys coming back from injury and I believe Tex will come back stronger than last year. No chance they will be even remotely as bad as the Jays were last year.

 

2014

Jays > Yanks

[xposbrad]

2014

Jays > Yanks

 

lol 0 chance , every year we go through the same thing, and every year it never happens. We paste the lineups and compare the players, and then every year the yanks finish better. So, when will you guys ever learn?