The one and only Masahiro Tanaka posting and bidding thread

[TheHurl]

I love how people talk about #4 as a derogatory term.

[LunchBox]

I love how people talk about #4 as a derogatory term.

 

Here`s a link to an entertaining article on that subject. I say entertaining because the author makes a lot of assumptions for the sake of simplicity, but still raises an interesting point:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/what-is-an-ace-2013/

[GD]

Really enjoyed that article, read it a few days ago. Found it funny the differences (or lack thereof) in certain classes of pitchers.

[LunchBox]

Really enjoyed that article, read it a few days ago. Found it funny the differences (or lack thereof) in certain classes of pitchers.

 

Yeah, there's a good point in there somewhere, it just needs to be refined. I almost stopped reading when I realized he'd distinguished the groups on the basis of 30 #1s, 30 #2s ect.

[L54]

A lot of people do. Have you learned nothing from the past seasons? Depth is important.

 

Depth means f*** all if the starting 5 aren't very good.

 

I'm expecting a rebound year from Dickey, Mark B to do his same old thing, and other than that there are 3 other spots to fill. Not sure about you, but all the depth in the world doesn't save a rotation like that.

[KevinGregg]

Depth means f*** all if the starting 5 aren't very good.

 

I'm expecting a rebound year from Dickey, Mark B to do his same old thing, and other than that there are 3 other spots to fill. Not sure about you, but all the depth in the world doesn't save a rotation like that.

whats wrong with morrow? he isnt getting replaced any time soon

[L54]

People seem to be ignoring Morrow a lot. Yes he's diabetic and may be more prone to problems, but he still has front half of rotation talent.

 

Realistically, would you be comfortable on betting on him to provide 180 innings?

[L54]

Great, out depth can lead us out of the bottom of the AL East!

 

All I'm saying is all the depth in the world doesn't matter if it isn't supplemented properly. Guys like Romero and Drabek are hardly depth, and if we're counting on Richmond to step in when Morrow goes down, we're in very big trouble.

 

Yes, I realize everything is hypothetical. But if we were the Red Sox, everyone would be sitting here bashing their rotation, talking about what shambles it's in, and how they have no depth. I'm just playing devil's advocate.

[jays4life19]

Great, out depth can lead us out of the bottom of the AL East!

 

All I'm saying is all the depth in the world doesn't matter if it isn't supplemented properly. Guys like Romero and Drabek are hardly depth, and if we're counting on Richmond to step in when Morrow goes down, we're in very big trouble.

 

Yes, I realize everything is hypothetical. But if we were the Red Sox, everyone would be sitting here bashing their rotation, talking about what shambles it's in, and how they have no depth. I'm just playing devil's advocate.

 

Our starting rotation as it stands now is probably something like...

1. Dickey

2. Morrow

3. Buehrle

4. Happ

5. Hutch.

 

By all means that's not a sexy rotation at all. It's not as bad as your making it out to be. We only really need 1 big free agent pitcher to drop Happ to #5. We then have a nice trio of Stroman, Hutch and Drabek as depth options who could be impact players as insurance for Morrow (injury)/Happ (suckage). We also have less sexy options in the likes of Redman, Rogers, Mcgowan, Jefferies which are ultimately better then Ortiz, Laffey, Wang and s***.

[Angrioter]

By all means that's not a sexy rotation at all. It's not as bad as your making it out to be. We only really need 1 big free agent pitcher to drop Happ to #5. We then have a nice trio of Stroman, Hutch and Drabek as depth options who could be impact players as insurance for Morrow (injury)/Happ (suckage). We also have less sexy options in the likes of Redman, Rogers, Mcgowan, Jefferies which are ultimately better then Ortiz, Laffey, Wang and s***.

 

A-

1. Dickey

2. Morrow

3. Buehrle

4. Happ

5. Hutch.

 

Vs

 

B-

1. Parker

2. Griffin

3. Kazmir

4. Straily

5. Gray

 

 

 

A- for sure

[JugglingPitches]

We need a front end starter and a good 3-4 slot starter to really make an impact. Depth then starts with Happ. That's a rotation I'd be more comfortable with. But realistically, save for a minor move here or there, the team we have now is likely the team we start with. I'd love to see AA go all in on Tanaka but it looks like the Yankees have unbuckled their belt and are pulling it out of their loops because they are willing to spend money again and that likely means we're gonna be their whipping boys once again. Bend over, my friends.

[jays4life19]

We need a front end starter and a good 3-4 slot starter to really make an impact. Depth then starts with Happ. .

 

We don't need Happ as depth. We have plenty of depth. Happ is fine as a #5 starter. He allows Stroman to start in AAA and not start his service time. Hutch/Drabek are other possible impact depth arms. At this point of time acquiring two starting pitchers isn't realistic. Use the money that we have on 1 free agent pitcher and trade for a Seattle 2nd basemen. Find a platoon bat for Lind and we won't be bending over for anyone.

[JugglingPitches]

We don't need Happ as depth. We have plenty of depth. Happ is fine as a #5 starter. He allows Stroman to start in AAA and not start his service time. Hutch/Drabek are other possible impact depth arms. At this point of time acquiring two starting pitchers isn't realistic. Use the money that we have on 1 free agent pitcher and trade for a Seattle 2nd basemen. Find a platoon bat for Lind and we won't be bending over for anyone.

 

Point is we need to push Happ down the depth chart so he's no longer our #5 but our #6/long relief man. I like him fine in that role (and let's be honest, there will be injuries and he'll end up our #5 anyway), but to start the year with him as our #5 is not very inspiring.

[Angrioter]

Masahiro Tanaka Sweepstakes Preview: Ranking The Top 10 Teams For The Japanese Ace

Ben Badler

 

10. Los Angeles Angels (THE LURKERS)

9. Boston Red Sox

8. Arizona Diamondbacks

 

7. Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto’s starting pitching last year was a disaster. Blue Jays starters posted a 4.81 ERA, the second-highest in baseball. Marcus Stroman should be able to help next season and Aaron Sanchez is on the way, though given his present command he probably won’t be a factor in 2014.

 

After missing out on Yu Darvish two years ago, the Blue Jays have been closely monitoring Tanaka, sending several top evaluators to Japan to scout him in person. There’s no question Tanaka would make Toronto a much better team next season.

 

But even if the Blue Jays forecast Tanaka as a frontline starter, do they have enough talent to put around him to shoot for a playoff spot next season? Tanaka would help them beyond the 2014 season, of course, but after winning 74 games last year and looking at this point like the worst team in the American League East, is now the time for the Blue Jays to invest north of $100 million in one pitcher?

 

It’s possible. The Blue Jays wouldn’t spend considerable time and energy evaluating Tanaka if they weren’t interested, but the team is in a difficult spot. Tanaka would upgrade their biggest weakness, but the price tag might prohibit them from upgrading other areas. Since the Blue Jays have two protected first-round picks, shooting for Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez, two less expensive options where they would have an edge because of the compensation picks attached, might be more feasible. Or, if they consider themselves far enough behind the rest of the AL East, they could hold off on major free agent acquisitions for at least another year until they’re ready to contend.

 

6. Texas Rangers

5. Detroit Tigers (THE SLEEPER)

4. Chicago Cubs (THE HEAVYWEIGHTS)

3. Los Angeles Dodgers

2. New York Yankees

1. Seattle Mariners

 

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/masahiro-tanaka-sweepstakes-preview-ranking-the-top-10-teams-for-the-japanese-ace/

[Angrioter]

The Jays don't have starting pitching depth. What they do have is, tenuously, potential starting pitching depth. And it's back-end potential, for the most part. Combined with the fact that they don't actually have an acceptable MLB starting rotation, the potential depth is really quite meaningless. It's like having a few band-aids to put on a hole in the bottom of a boat ... even if those band-aids are "water resistant."

 

That, along with the bullpen could be the Bluejay's strengths.

[connorp]

I love how people talk about #4 as a derogatory term.

 

I think the big diff is between a mlb #4 SP (like a Wandy or something) and a guy that "projects" to be that..almost as a ceiling

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

We don't need Happ as depth. We have plenty of depth. Happ is fine as a #5 starter. He allows Stroman to start in AAA and not start his service time. Hutch/Drabek are other possible impact depth arms. At this point of time acquiring two starting pitchers isn't realistic. Use the money that we have on 1 free agent pitcher and trade for a Seattle 2nd basemen. Find a platoon bat for Lind and we won't be bending over for anyone.

 

Those are the moves that at this point I'd like to see Toronto make. Another option that has since sailed was stand pat on the pitching and sign a quality free agent hitter instead ( admitting the free agent pitching pool is weak/expensive and not a great fit this year beyond maybe Tanaka, Santana??? ).

 

A long shot possibility is Iwakuma or Cliff Lee are available in a package for Bautista. Any other trade, like the ones involving the Cubs, seem like a royal rip off for the Jays that hurts their future with very little upgrade to their staff beyond innings. I'd rather give Rogers a chance then trade our best pitching prospects.

 

I'd say the strong possibilities for upside this year rest with Lawrie ( offensively ), Morrow, Stroman, Hutch, and Rogers. Out of spring training, one of Stroman or Rogers may win that 5th spot and start the season in the rotation. Happ can take it otherwise. They are all fine at that spot. Not getting another pitcher is only a problem because Morrow is fragile and other injuries always occur. If Morrow pitches most of the year, we can live with this rotation. It's a big if. But only a quality pitcher much better then these other guys helps the team, and if we lose an asset he better be potentially one of the best in the league.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

Samardzija would be a huge upgrade to this pitching staff

 

That's your opinion, one I don't agree with. Given that projecting pitching is difficult, opinions are simply that. History suggests that acquiring National League starters more often then not doesn't work out. The Cubs wouldn't shop him if they felt he was a can't miss pitcher for their future.

 

In any event, the Cubs want too much I wouldn't even consider a trade on their supposed terms.

[G-Snarls]

Baseball America on the 10 teams most likely to land Tanaka (Jays on list)

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/masahiro-tanaka-sweepstakes-preview-ranking-the-top-10-teams-for-the-japanese-ace/

[G-Snarls]

Toronto’s starting pitching last year was a disaster. Blue Jays starters posted a 4.81 ERA, the second-highest in baseball. Marcus Stroman should be able to help next season and Aaron Sanchez is on the way, though given his present command he probably won’t be a factor in 2014.

 

After missing out on Yu Darvish two years ago, the Blue Jays have been closely monitoring Tanaka, sending several top evaluators to Japan to scout him in person. There’s no question Tanaka would make Toronto a much better team next season.

 

But even if the Blue Jays forecast Tanaka as a frontline starter, do they have enough talent to put around him to shoot for a playoff spot next season? Tanaka would help them beyond the 2014 season, of course, but after winning 74 games last year and looking at this point like the worst team in the American League East, is now the time for the Blue Jays to invest north of $100 million in one pitcher?

 

It’s possible. The Blue Jays wouldn’t spend considerable time and energy evaluating Tanaka if they weren’t interested, but the team is in a difficult spot. Tanaka would upgrade their biggest weakness, but the price tag might prohibit them from upgrading other areas. Since the Blue Jays have two protected first-round picks, shooting for Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez, two less expensive options where they would have an edge because of the compensation picks attached, might be more feasible. Or, if they consider themselves far enough behind the rest of the AL East, they could hold off on major free agent acquisitions for at least another year until they’re ready to contend.

[connorp]

Samar= good #2 in like 80% of rotations

[Abomination]

Actual "depth" is not a collection of guys who one day might be acceptable, or who, if they're healthy and can prove they can perform, might tide you over, and that's what the Jays have.

 

I'm not sure any team in baseball has what you seem to consider as depth.

[TheHurl]

Or completely correct. Whichever one I said.

 

Actual "depth" is not a collection of guys who one day might be acceptable, or who, if they're healthy and can prove they can perform, might tide you over, and that's what the Jays have.

 

Some other poster made a list of 14 guys. Romero is not depth. He's a guy spinning his wheels in AAA. Nolin? He had an OK year at AA, struggled above that in limited action, and has limited stuff. If he puts together a strong showing this year at AAA, then perhaps the next year he's depth. McGuire? Not even Nolin level. Rogers and Jeffress? They're relievers. Jeffress hasn't made a start, anywhere, on any level, in like 4 years. He's not even a MLB reliever right now. He's relief "depth." Drabek is coming off his 2nd TJ, has only ever done horribly in the bigs (can't get his Ks above his BBs). Jenkins could be depth, but he too needs more seasoning. McGowan can't ever be healthy. These are not guys who have shown they can be serviceable major league pitchers, over a decent period of time, so that you could count on them to fill in admirably should someone go down, or prove ineffective. They're dice rolls, at best. They're not higher ceiling guys who are right on the cusp, so that they could be expected to perform decently if forced into a starting role in the bigs, even if they're not quite yet ready to achieve their ceiling.

 

Happ is a depth guy. Except he might be the #4. Redmond arguably could be a depth guy, with his 15 MLB starts going into his age-29 season, but realistically, he's another potential depth guy. Hutchison could eventually be a depth guy, or even more, but he needs to show he can be effective in the bigs again, coming off surgery, given his very short track record. If you had a proven vet coming back from an isolated injury, reasonably expected to be healthy, then he would be a definitive "depth" guy. Stroman might meet the definition of MLB-ready high ceiling depth, were it not for the questions about his projectability as a starter.

 

Really, at this point, they do have depth. It's just AAA depth, not MLB depth. If they had another 2 fairly reliable SP, with Morrow as their wildcard, due to obvious injury issues, and Happ as their #6, then they would start having the makings of meaningful "depth" (if Stroman and Sanchez were more reliably projectable and closer to being ready, at least in Sanchez's case and/or one of the aforementioned prospects was more projectable and they had a vet in tow in the minors ... perhaps Redmond qualifies, but it's questionable).

 

What they actually have is a huge grouping of question marks, many of which may never be answered, and some of which won't be answered soon (i.e. the beginning/mid-point of this year).

 

There is a huge difference in the depth this year in comparison to last year and 2011. Your opinion of what they can perform at withstanding, having Hutch, Drabek, Nolin, Stroman, Jenkins or Deck waiting in the minors is great depth and should allow for offensive options as well (although AA hasn't seemed to realize this yet). These guys being healthy mean that you can get rid of the minor league relievers, as any of these guys could step up in to replace an injured reliever. It also saves the pen if there is an injury to a starter. Last year our replacements were often 4 or 5 inning guys. Win or lose you can throw Hutch or Nolin out there for 7 and save the pen. That's a huge asset to have. You don't need all of the depth to major league ready, you should only need one or two of them. Because they all have options you don't need to time when they come up either so you can always have one ready for an emergency without the fear of losing them if you need to send them back down.

 

Todd Redmond pitched 77 pretty effective innings for the Jays last year, all of these guys could easily do that. Remember that if Morrow pitches 130 innings of 2 win (WAR not wins) baseball and Nolin can pitch 70 innings like Redmond last year that's a number 2 starter. And there is no loss of other players off the 40 to get it done. For me that's what depth should be.

[Abomination]

Todd Redmond pitched 77 pretty effective innings for the Jays last year, all of these guys could easily do that. Remember that if Morrow pitches 130 innings of 2 win (WAR not wins) baseball and Nolin can pitch 70 innings like Redmond last year that's a number 2 starter. And there is no loss of other players off the 40 to get it done. For me that's what depth should be.

 

It's actually kind of shocking just how well Redmond actually pitched last year, especially for a fly ball pitcher in our division.

[Angrioter]

Baseball America on the 10 teams most likely to land Tanaka (Jays on list)

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/masahiro-tanaka-sweepstakes-preview-ranking-the-top-10-teams-for-the-japanese-ace/

 

Already posted by muaaa

[jaysfan2014]

Whether Todd Redmond is in the majors or AAA next year depends on what the Jays do in the next few weeks.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

Samar= good #2 in like 80% of rotations

 

It's kind of funny on this forum that Dickey and Buehrle get no love from most people yet guys like Samar/Garza/Josh Johnson are touted frequently.

You know what's better then a guy who is projected to be a solid starter in the American League ? One that already is a solid starter in the American

League. And I'm no big Buehrle fan, his notoriously slow starts are a risk and he's overpaid.

 

Kind of a bird in the hand thing. There is a huge risk in giving up talent and possibly a boatload of money on a guy who MAY be effective in the AL East.

Better guys have failed miserably, so proclaiming that he will be that good #2 in the AL East seems overly optimistic to me. Time will tell.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

When is this guy going to sign? Or when is incredibly long, irritating, annoying process going to be over?

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

Mark Buehrle, career:

 

1st half = 3.71 ERA

2nd half = 4.11 ERA

 

Notorious slow starts.

 

I'm noting what supposed experts have said publically, so if its wrong so be it. What are his April and May numbers ?

[Abomination]

When is this guy going to sign? Or when is incredibly long, irritating, annoying process going to be over?

 

I believe it could be as long as a month from the posting date, although I suspect he'll want to get a deal sooner so he has a month or so to move over here before spring training.