How would you approach our offseason?

[agrushcow]

Hey guys, I'm new to the board. Since my Miami Dolphins continue to depress me I'm moving over to baseball to consumer my mind for a bit...the idea of this thread is to see what everyone would like to do realistically to make this team a contender this season. I have a couple scenarios here and my final result will be based on what I think is believable and what I think works best for this team with a slight bump in salary.

 

I'll start with what my approach would be:

 

Needs

SP: Need a front of rotation guy, or two middle rotation guys.

C: JPA, all that needs to be said. Upgrade on Thole would make sense too...

2B: I like Goins, but an upgrade would certainly be a smart route

 

Trades

Deal a package of relievers and another piece for SP Rick Porcello. Tigers need relievers and I think they're a good trade partner. A deal for Shark also makes sense depending on the package (no Sanchez).

DET receives: Delabar, Cecil and Esmil Rogers.

TOR receives: Rick Porcello

 

Dealing Bautista, Lind or even Rasmus makes sense. I'd air on the side of dealing Lind mostly to save us some money to make moves. Ideally we'd get a good defensive catcher back.

A guy I would target is Ryan Hannigan from the Reds, just not sure of the package needed so I'll leave it out. Maybe JPA, Izturis for him. Need upgrades in utility infielders and would give them some depth if they move Phillips.

 

Sign

 

SP Ubaldo Jimenez for 4 years at 64 million.

He's my favorite pitcher on the market and has the highest upside. Could slot him right into the middle of the rotation.

 

C Dioner Navarro for 2 years a 10 million

Had a nice year with the Cubs. All we need is a replacement level guy.

 

C George Kottaras

Was DFA'd and at the very least could replace Thole. A good canadian kid who gets on base at a very nice clip and caught Wakefield early in his career.

 

Other options

 

SP Plan B: SP Ricky Nolasco for 4 years at 50 million.

A safe addition who will give us innings and can be slotted into the middle of the rotation. I'd be fine with either him or Ubaldo on the Jays come spring training.

 

2B Omar Infante for 3 years at 25 million.

I don't think this is as realistic. I'm fine with a platoon of Goins and Maicer, but if we have the money why not add a .300 hitter. I'm going to leave this out tho, because I don't see it happening.

 

Would also like to add an end of bench bat, a veteran guy who's been around but is a hair above what Derosa was (Betemit, Bloomquist?)

 

Lets assume those contracts in are fine, and we keep Lind.

 

2014 Projected Lineup

 

1. Jose Reyes, SS

2. Colby Rasmus, CF

3. Jose Bautista, RF

4. Edwin Encarnacion, 1B

5. Adam Lind, DH

6. Brett Lawrie, 3B

7. Melky Cabrera, LF

8. Dioner Navarro, C

9. Maicer Izturis 2B

 

Bench

C George Kottaras

INF Ryan Goins

OF Anthony Gose

OF Moises Sierra

 

Starting Rotation

1. R.A. Dickey

2. Ubaldo Jimenez

3. Mark Beurhle

4. Brandon Morrow

5. Rick Porcello

 

Relievers

LR: J.A. Happ

MR: Aaron Loup

MR: Jeremy Jeffress

MR: Luis Perez

SU: Dustin McGowan

SU: Sergio Santos

CP: Casey Janssen

 

So what would everyone think of that team going into spring training? Do you think it's realistic? Can you do better and keep it plausible? Discuss!

[havok24]

Welcome to the forum.

 

There is a "cow" in his name. Must be fatcow trying to start over from scratch.

[agrushcow]

Thanks for the warm reception...what's wrong with discussing potential avenues to make this team better?

[agrushcow]

Ignore MohYou.. that guy is a dud. Good thread, I think it's a lot better than the other first time poster threads that have been of recent.

 

After all, this is a discussion forum.

 

So with that I say welcome aboard.

 

What do you think of J.P. Arencibia?

 

I mean I was born with a set of eyes. We absolutely cannot enter the season with him starting...he should be sent to AAA or traded, I actually wouldn't be surprised if he had some value to another team. But he's god awful, one of the worst I've seen.

[agrushcow]

Welcome aboard.

 

Porcello would be a great add. I'm really not keen on Navarro or Jimenez though.

 

Why don't you like Jimenez? In this market I feel like he has the highest upside and is the only guy who could potentially give us top of rotation value. He fixed his delivery and apparently it's helped him a fair bit. I'm also not crazy about Navarro, but what other options are there? We absolutely need a replacement level guy there and it's not JPA.

[Chappy]

I'm not opposed to Navarro. I am not a huge fan of his but at this point he may be the most reasonable option on the FA market. At worst case he comes in and provides zero WAR and still is an improvement over JP. Steamer has him at 1.6 WAR next season.

[agrushcow]

I'm just not a big fan of Ubaldo. Steamer has him at 2.7 WAR next year, and a 4/60+ type of deal to a pitcher like that is just really unsexy to me. You're projecting the guy to be a tad above-average in year one, average in year two, and below-average in years 3 and 4. Those deals never seem to work out very well for the signing team.

 

I agree with you regarding the catching, we do need an upgrade (note: I think you mean average (2 WAR), not replacement-level (0 WAR, JPA and Thole level). I'd rather sign Pierzynski or trade for Hanigan than roll the dice on Navarro. He was terrible for like 4 consecutive years before 2013, and I don't trust him to not be terrible in 2014.

 

You're right, that's what I meant about catcher. I agree Hannigan makes the most sense. AJ was also considered, but I went with Navorro cause he's cheaper and could be serviceable past year 1.

 

And ya that's just where we differ on Ubaldo. With his track record, albeit with some shady seasons mixed in the middle, I think he's found his stuff again. So for that reason I see a guy who's gonna be well above average year 1 (like mid 3 era and high K rate) and then solid for another year, which is what we need with they way this team is built now. I don't trust Nolasco or Garza as much as I'd trust Ubaldo because I think his talent level is significantly higher. Just my opinion.

[Chappy]

If we're targeting one starter via FA, the guy I want is Colon. He won't put up a sub-3 ERA again, but he could very well go 30+ starts with a 3.50-4. The beauty with him is the likely 1-year commitment. I'd probably go to 1/15 on him if that's what it took.

 

Problem is AA probably never considers that. I can see Nolasco being high on his radar considering he could probably land him for 4/60 and that has to be more attractive than what Ubaldo or Santana will get.

[agrushcow]

If we're targeting one starter via FA, the guy I want is Colon. He won't put up a sub-3 ERA again, but he could very well go 30+ starts with a 3.50-4. The beauty with him is the likely 1-year commitment. I'd probably go to 1/15 on him if that's what it took.

 

That's not a bad option either. Amazing that guy still does it, as porky as he is...my stance is I think we need to go to FA for 1 pitcher and the trade route for another. The only way we could get away with adding only one pitcher is if we trade JBau as far as I'm concerned, and I haven't found that many fits. If we don't get a true #1, I want guys with MLB track records rounding out our 5 slots, lord knows Morrow will be out for a bit anyway.

[Abomination]

You're right, that's what I meant about catcher. I agree Hannigan makes the most sense. AJ was also considered, but I went with Navorro cause he's cheaper and could be serviceable past year 1.

 

And ya that's just where we differ on Ubaldo. With his track record, albeit with some shady seasons mixed in the middle, I think he's found his stuff again. So for that reason I see a guy who's gonna be well above average year 1 (like mid 3 era and high K rate) and then solid for another year, which is what we need with they way this team is built now. I don't trust Nolasco or Garza as much as I'd trust Ubaldo because I think his talent level is significantly higher. Just my opinion.

 

I agree, I think Jimenez is the perfect fit for us assuming he doesn't go for some insane amount. He isn't overly efficient, but he's had 6 straight seasons making at least 31 starts, has put up 3.2 WAR or higher in 5 of his last 6 seasons, and an xFIP of 3.71 or lower in 4 of his last 5. Add to that the fact that's he's a ground ball pitcher, and I think it makes perfect sense. Put him and Porcello in the rotation and we'd have 4 guys with a high probability of making 30+ starts and a high upside wildcard in Morrow. I don't understand why so many people dislike the idea of him.

[Chappy]

I don't understand why so many people dislike the idea of him.

 

The likely contract he gets is probably the biggest deterrent.

[Abomination]

I also think Hughes could be an intriguing option at the back of the rotation, and will likely come very cheap.

[agrushcow]

The likely contract he gets is probably the biggest deterrent.

 

What kind of a deal do you think he's looking at? North of a 5 year 80??

[ElNik2013]

I'd try at all cost to avoid trading Stroman and Sanchez. Signing 1 SP is all the budget will allow so I'd be ok with Nolasco, Jimenez and others mentioned. If Porcello can be acquired for relievers, then even better. I think no matter how you slice it, the team's ability to contend will hinge on whether or not Dickey can pitch close to his 2010-12 level and Morrow pitching like he did in 2012 as well as healthy seasons from the key position players. Improving C should be up there with getting a solid SP and if the budget allows it, improving 2B would be great. They won't get a 1 SP so improving the team in as many areas as possible should be the priority.

[Abomination]

What kind of a deal do you think he's looking at? North of a 5 year 80??

 

I can't see it being more than that (it really shouldn't be), but you never know. All it takes is one desperate team.

[Chappy]

What kind of a deal do you think he's looking at? North of a 5 year 80??

 

I'd guess around 5/75 at least, probably ends up at 5/80. If it were a 4 year deal I'd probably go with him over Nolasco, but I want as short a deal as possible and now that several short term options are off the board, it's looking more and more like AA is either going to blow up the farm or sign an ill advised contract.

[Abomination]

Entering his age-30 season and will command a 4-5 year deal at 60-80M. Similar deals for Jackson, Danks, Wilson, Beckett, Lackey, Harrison, Buehrle etc... have left a bad taste in people's mouths. I'm having a hard time finding a simialr deal that worked out well for the team. Anibal Sanchez will probably end up fine, so there's one.

 

C.J. Wilson might be another (too early to tell for sure).

 

Oops, saw you listed him. Deal should turn out okay for them though.

[ElNik2013]

Entering his age-30 season and will command a 4-5 year deal at 60-80M. Similar deals for Jackson, Danks, Wilson, Beckett, Lackey, Harrison, Buehrle etc... have left a bad taste in people's mouths. I'm having a hard time finding a simialr deal that worked out well for the team. Anibal Sanchez will probably end up fine, so there's one.

 

 

At this point, I'd rather AA overpay a FA than finish off the farm-decimation he started last year unless he's getting a young #2 or 1 which is very unlikely. Hey, in 3 years, Romero's deal will be off the books!

[Chappy]

At this point, I'd rather AA overpay a FA than finish off the farm-decimation he started last year unless he's getting a young #2 or 1 which is very unlikely. Hey, in 3 years, Romero's deal will be off the books!

 

Money is also an asset. If we get stuck with several horrendous contracts, we're going to then have to pray Sanchez works out which is no sure thing.

[ElNik2013]

Money is also an asset. If we get stuck with several horrendous contracts, we're going to then have to pray Sanchez works out which is no sure thing.

 

 

I understand that, but given how AA has been overpaying in trades for SP in the last 16-18 months, I think I'd prefer to overpay a FA. The team doesn't have many commitments past 2015 so they may be able to make it work. I actually think AA will focus on trades rather than sign FA, it's just his MO.

[Chappy]

I understand that, but given how AA has been overpaying in trades for SP in the last 16-18 months, I think I'd prefer to overpay a FA. The team doesn't have many commitments past 2015 so they may be able to make it work. I actually think AA will focus on trades rather than sign FA, it's just his MO.

 

I'm hoping he can land Nolasco on a 4 year deal. Getting another guy who is a reasonable bet for 200 innings makes gambling on Morrow less risky. Nolasco might not be anything special but he gives us a chance to win some games and I am fairly optimistic about our offence.

[GD]

Nolasco, Kazmir, Ellis, and Hanigan (Cecil).

 

We really aren't asking much lol.

[jaysblue]

I also think Hughes could be an intriguing option at the back of the rotation, and will likely come very cheap.

 

I think Hughes is a great bargain buy, though he's probably a better fit somewhere in the NL or at least in a big ballpark like Safeco. He's very prone to the HR ball, so I think him pitching at the Rogers Centre wouldn't work all that well.

[jaysblue]

If we're targeting one starter via FA, the guy I want is Colon. He won't put up a sub-3 ERA again, but he could very well go 30+ starts with a 3.50-4. The beauty with him is the likely 1-year commitment. I'd probably go to 1/15 on him if that's what it took.

 

As much as I like Colon, not a fan of dollar amount you threw out. Also, I have a feeling that his Oakland magic doesn't translate over with the Jays. He'd be making more than Bautista and EE which would be quite funny.

[The Cats Ass]

Sign Omar Infante for 2B - 3Yr/24

Trade for Ryan Hanigan for C - Arb, 3Mil?

Sign Bronson Arroyo (9 straight years with 32 gms started) - 1Yr/9Mil

Sign Option A: Ubaldo Jimenez 3Yr/36Mil or Option B: Scott Kazmir 2Yr/16Mil

 

Around 30Mil added to payroll.

 

Lineup:

 

Reyes - SS

Cabrera - LF

Bautista - RF

EE - 1B

Lind - DH

Lawrie - 3B

Rasmus - CF

Infante - 2B

Hanigan - C

 

BN: Thole - C

Izturis - IF

Gose - OF

Serria - OF/1B

 

Rotation:

Dickey

Morrow

Jimenez/Kazmir

Buehrle

Arroyo

 

Bullpen:

Our bunch of Ace Relievers

[Chappy]

Sign Omar Infante for 2B - 3Yr/24

Trade for Ryan Hanigan for C - Arb, 3Mil?

Sign Bronson Arroyo (9 straight years with 32 gms started) - 1Yr/9Mil

Sign Option A: Ubaldo Jimenez 3Yr/36Mil or Option B: Scott Kazmir 2Yr/16Mil

 

Around 30Mil added to payroll.

 

Lineup:

 

Reyes - SS

Cabrera - LF

Bautista - RF

EE - 1B

Lind - DH

Lawrie - 3B

Rasmus - CF

Infante - 2B

Hanigan - C

 

BN: Thole - C

Izturis - IF

Gose - OF

Serria - OF/1B

 

Rotation:

Dickey

Morrow

Jimenez/Kazmir

Buehrle

Arroyo

 

Bullpen:

Our bunch of Ace Relievers

 

Ubaldo is going to get 5 years and probably 15-18M per year. Arroyo probably gets 3 years from someone.

 

I do like the idea of signing Infante and trading for Hanigan though. If Ubaldo can be had on a 4 year deal closer to 15 per I would do that too.

[Angrioter]

I mean I was born with a set of eyes. We absolutely cannot enter the season with him starting...he should be sent to AAA or traded, I actually wouldn't be surprised if he had some value to another team. But JPA is god awful, one of the worst I've seen.

 

welcome smart dude.

http://josepjroca.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/3103122-captain-obvious.jpg

[Angrioter]

Why don't you like Jimenez? In this market I feel like he has the highest upside and is the only guy who could potentially give us top of rotation value. He fixed his delivery and apparently it's helped him a fair bit. I'm also not crazy about Navarro, but what other options are there? We absolutely need a replacement level guy there and it's not JPA.

 

We already have a version of "Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde" in Morrow, 2/5 would be an exaggeration (Ubaldo). The Jays need a consistent rotation (Health and productivity), we must dispel the doubts in our rotation adding +30 outings starters; guys like Buehrle but more talented.

[The Cats Ass]

Ubaldo is going to get 5 years and probably 15-18M per year. Arroyo probably gets 3 years from someone.

 

I do like the idea of signing Infante and trading for Hanigan though. If Ubaldo can be had on a 4 year deal closer to 15 per I would do that too.

 

Well then, scratch Arroyo. I'd still like Ubaldo though.

 

I'd also take a chance on Halladay if he came cheap(5mil) with a bunch of incentives added on.

[Sammy225]

Well then, scratch Arroyo. I'd still like Ubaldo though.

 

I'd also take a chance on Halladay if he came cheap(5mil) with a bunch of incentives added on.

 

I knew it wouldn't be long until someone pulled up on the Halladay bandwagon lol. I am sorry I love the guy but I am pretty sure he could be done. But if anyone can make the adjustments to his big decrease in velocity it would be Doc.