Does a Pitcher’s Height Matter?

[Angrioter]

By Glenn P. Greenberg

 

In 1993 the Los Angeles Dodgers traded a setup man for a very good second baseman on the Montreal Expos. It may have seemed like the Dodgers had just ripped off their trading partner. The setup man had a great arm but, according to Tommy Lasorda, he was too small to handle the rigors of starting and therefore had limited potential. The pitcher was Pedro Martinez.

 

There are many baseball theories. Some theories— for example, that control is the most important part of pitching—have merit. But some are wrong. Case in point: Players used to say that Bob Feller’s fastball rose, but physics has proven that it couldn’t, that it was physically impossible.

 

One common baseball theory is that taller pitchers are more durable and just intrinsically better than shorter pitchers. In this article I investigate whether that notion is true. I examined this theory by using a number of statistical techniques, including linear regressions and chi-square tests. For all linear regressions, transformations and nonlinear regressions were done but failed to substantially improve the r-squares. For an explanation of how the statistics were analyzed you can read the appendix at the end of the article.

 

In my analysis, I examined only players who were good enough to be drafted. As a result, the most this paper can say is that, when it comes to players who are good enough to be drafted in the Rule 4 amateur draft, the correlation between height and a player’s effectiveness or durability is not statistically significant. It is possible, regardless of the findings of this article, that there is a correlation between height and a player’s effectiveness or durability at lower levels, but I do not address the issue here, because of insufficient data and confounding variables, such as social pressures that convince shorter people to play positions other than pitcher.

 

The idea that taller pitchers are more effective and durable is ingrained in baseball. For example, Whitey Ford signed with the Yankees after they offered him more than the Dodgers did, who “told me they thought I was too small anyway,” Ford recalled many years later.1 At first glance, the theory makes intuitive sense. Taller pitchers are more intimidating, throw on a greater downhill plane, and release the ball closer to the plate. You would think that someone taller would be able to throw harder since they have longer arms and their greater size should enable them to be better able to withstand the punishment of pitching.

 

However, if you start to think about these assumptions, many of them just don’t hold up. While Randy Johnson was incredibly intimidating at 6-foot-10, the same can be said for Pedro Martinez at 5-foot-11. While longer arms, acting as levers, are certainly helpful in throwing hard, having a quick arm is just as important, if not more so. When it comes to durability, each pitcher is throwing his hardest, so his muscles are working at their hardest. Jon Rauch is not trying less hard to throw his 92-mph fastball than Francisco Rodriguez is trying when he throws his fastball at 92 mph. “We’re not selling jeans here,” as Billy Beane, responding to scouts who said that Jeremy Brown had a bad body, is quoted in Moneyball. Under this thinking height should not have a significant impact on a pitcher’s effectiveness or durability.

 

 

Pitching Effectiveness

 

The first question to be studied is whether height has an effect on major-league pitchers’ effectiveness. Taking the years 1990 through 2007, I looked at starting pitchers who qualified for the earned-run-average title for one season or more and at relief pitchers who pitched in 45 or more games (or the equivalent in a strike-shortened season) while starting fewer than ten games.

 

As you can see in table 1, the data show no evidence of a statistically significant correlation, for starting pitchers, between height (in inches) and any of the customary measures of pitching effectiveness. These include strikeouts per nine innings, walks per nine innings, strikeouts per walk, home runs per nine innings, WHIP (walks plus hits divided by innings pitched), and earned run average. The highest r-square was .5 percent for a nonlinear regression for strikeouts per nine innings pitched. An r-square of .5 percent is extraordinarily small. It means that height has little ability to predict the number of strikeouts per nine innings a pitcher would throw. In addition, the p-values are all very high, the lowest being .14—almost three times greater than the maximum p-value indicating statistical significance.

 

Table 2 shows that there is also no correlation between height and effectiveness for relief pitchers. The highest r-square is .3 percent, which is simply too small for the line to have predictive powers. The p-values are also well above the .05 limit, too high to be statistically significant. As a result, it can be said that the statistics do not show a correlation between pitching height and effectiveness for an established major-league pitcher.

 

In sum, the data indicate that height is essentially irrelevant when a pitcher is good enough to become an established major-league pitcher.

 

At this point we can say out loud what our eyes say when we watch Tim Lincecum or Greg Maddux. Height does not matter for major-league pitchers because only the truly talented make it to the major leagues in the first place.

 

 

Making it to the Majors

 

What should be important to major-league franchises is finding players who have the talent to become major-league pitchers. If taller minor-league pitchers are more effective, then it makes sense to scout taller pitchers. There is the belief that taller, leaner young pitchers are more “projectable”—more likely to throw harder as they get older—than their shorter counterparts. For example, Joel Zumaya was drafted in the eleventh round in 2002 despite topping out only in the upper 80s, because he had a “projectable” body. If the theories about pitchers’ heights are correct, one would expect drafted pitchers who are taller, both starters and relievers, to be more likely to make it to higher levels in the minor leagues and to become established major-league pitchers. Looking at the Rule 4 amateur draft from 1985 through 2002, we actually find no correlation between the two variables (table 3). The p-value of .21 is well above the maximum of .05 for showing a statistically significant correlation between height and professional advancement. The evidence, therefore, said that there is no correlation between height and making it to the majors—or to Triple A, or to Double A, and so on—as a pitcher.

 

The data for three subcategories were then examined for the likelihood of becoming

 

an established major-league pitcher,

 

an established major-league starting pitcher,

 

an established major-league relief pitcher.

 

The study applied the same criteria as were used for evaluating pitching effectiveness. The p-values were .61 for an established pitcher, .52 for an established relief pitcher, and .005 for an established starting pitcher. As a result, it can be said that there was insufficient evidence to show a correlation between height and becoming an established major-league pitcher in general (whether a starter or a reliever) but that there was enough evidence to show a correlation between height and becoming specifically an established major-league starting pitcher. While drafted shorter players are just as likely to become established major-league relief pitchers and established major-league pitchers in general, taller pitchers are more likely to become established major-league starting pitchers.

 

http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=391&d=1384104174

 

 

Durability

 

Another reason shorter pitchers are drafted later is durability. The theory is that shorter pitchers are less durable than taller ones. David Cameron stated the prevailing theory about durability in an article in Baseball Prospectus: “There is validity to the belief that shorter pitchers have a smaller margin for error. In order to generate the same power as a pitcher with more natural strength, they can tend to put more pressure on their arms, thus leading to poor mechanics and eventual injuries.”3

 

The first question when it comes to durability is, for starting pitchers, whether a short pitcher can throw as many innings as a tall pitcher can or, for relievers, whether a short pitcher can throw as many innings and appear in as many games. As table 4 reflects, the r-squares never got above even .003, or .3 percent, no matter what was done to the data. The p-values also were well above .05, the maximum level of statistical significance. These data show insufficient evidence of a correlation between height and a pitcher’s use during a season.

 

The second question is how likely a pitcher is to pitch year after year without getting injured. One way of measuring that is to see how many years an established major-league starting pitcher was able to qualify for the ERA title and how many years an established majorleague relief pitcher was able to throw in more than 45 games. The p-value for the starting pitchers was .98, and for relief pitchers .it was .45—which essentially means that the chances that there is a correlation between height and years as an established major league starting pitcher or relief pitchers are about as great as the chances that Switzerland will start World War III.

 

Height was not correlated to durability in seasons in which players were healthy, but that fact does not end the analysis. For us to be able to say that height does not correlate to durability at all, short pitchers would have to throw as much and stay off the disabled list as much as taller pitchers. The data for players on the disabled list at any time during 1994 through 2007 can be seen in table 5. There is no statistically significant correlation for games started or innings pitched; the highest r-square being .002 and the lowest p-value being .096. However, there is a correlation between height and games—a negative one: greater height correlates to fewer games pitched.

 

 

Throwing Arm

 

There is one final piece to the puzzle. Baseball has overlooked the “height rules” for left-handed pitchers because of their dearth. The data for the left-handed pitchers could have affected the numbers for all pitchers as a whole. If height has an effect on success or durability for right-handed pitchers, then baseball teams should still draft taller right-handed pitchers over shorter ones.

 

http://sabr.org/research/does-pitcher-s-height-matter

[G-Snarls]

The Stroman shall show them all

[flafson]

The Stroman shall show them all

 

Sure, but which shirt will he wear by then?

[G-Snarls]

Sure, but which shirt will he wear by then?

 

Good point. Would prefer it be Jays rather than Padres.

[Olerud363]

What are your thoughts on Stroman?? Syndergard/Stroman is actually an interesting comparison. The age difference isn't as much as it appears. Stroman just turned 22, Synd 21... about 14 months difference. Looks like 2 years in the books because they use age on July 1st.. but it's really only 1.

 

AA numbers very similiar. Stroman spent the entire year at AA. Syndagard 7 or 8 inches taller.

[G-Snarls]

What are your thoughts on Stroman?? Syndergard/Stroman is actually an interesting comparison. The age difference isn't as much as it appears. Stroman just turned 22, Synd 21... about 14 months difference. Looks like 2 years in the books because they use age on July 1st.. but it's really only 1.

 

AA numbers very similiar. Stroman spent the entire year at AA. Syndagard 7 or 8 inches taller.

 

Both look like they have a good chance to be legit above average MLB starters. Syndergaard probably has a higher ceiling.