Jeremy Jeffress back into a starter

[Abomination]

Yeah but what is the stastitical case for doing that? I mean it's a common trope that September numbers are meaningless but has the boost that players get from the watered competition been measured? Has an April effect been measured? Is either statistically significant? Unless I see some numbers, I would be more comfortable assuming the effects are marignal and largely overstated than assuming the opposite.

 

That's what I'd be interested in finding out. April and September numbers seem to have higher BB rates and K rates. You would think that pitchers that miss the bat well would benefit more during those months than pitchers that work to contact. I don't know if it would make a difference with the projection accuracy or not, but would be interesting to find out - especially for projections like JFaS.

[KingKat]

That's what I'd be interested in finding out. April and September numbers seem to have higher BB rates and K rates. You would think that pitchers that miss the bat well would benefit more during those months than pitchers that work to contact. I don't know if it would make a difference with the projection accuracy or not, but would be interesting to find out - especially for projections like JFaS.

 

Sorry I misunderstood your intent. So you would substract the numbers as a quick and dirty way to see if there's difference. I thought you were just saying to substract them based on the asumption of the difference.

[connorp]

Yeah but what is the stastitical case for doing that? I mean it's a common trope that September numbers are meaningless but has the boost that players get from the watered competition been measured? Has an April effect been measured? Is either statistically significant? Unless I see some numbers, I would be more comfortable assuming the effects are marignal and largely overstated than assuming the opposite.

 

Not sure on April..but as far as Sep goes.. It would be interesting to look into it further..not quite sure how'd you attack it best though.

 

Theres so much logic that has to be stirred in though. Example: Its fact that veterans bodies are not in optimal condition after five mos of bb and if theyre not playing for anything.. You wouldnt expect them to excel even woth the watered down comp.. It would prob be a case-by-case thing.. Real hard to quantify..

 

Maybe i would look at the call-ups numbers and compare them to their stats say for their first 200-400 ABs (or IP) or something in regular season time. Obviously that wouldnt be an easy study..idk how you would attack i guess

[KingKat]

Not sure on April..but as far as Sep goes.. It would be interesting to look into it further..not quite sure how'd you attack it best though.

 

Theres so much logic that has to be stirred in though. Example: Its fact that veterans bodies are not in optimal condition after five mos of bb and if theyre not playing for anything.. You wouldnt expect them to excel even woth the watered down comp.. It would prob be a case-by-case thing.. Real hard to quantify..

 

Maybe i would look at the call-ups numbers and compare them to their stats say for their first 200-400 ABs (or IP) or something in regular season time. Obviously that wouldnt be an easy study..idk how you would attack i guess

 

If you go back far enough you should have enough data. You'd limit your sample to a certain numbers of PAs maybe half as season's worth, maybe more and compare September results versus rest of season. You don't need to untangle the why of it all because you've eliminated the callups from your sample. By default you're only dealing with the players who will benefit from the so called water downed competition.Is there an overall trend? How consistentis it from season to season? That should at least give you a nice yes or no answer about the whole thing. From there you can put a number on it if it's really a thing (I suspect it isn't).

[connorp]

As i mentioned, im a believer in the human element in addition to advanced stats. If youre a veteran and your team isnt playing for anything, I also think that changes the environment. Plus theyre worn down.. Thats why you see a lot of guys shut it down when they otherwise wouldnt

 

I was actually suggesting that call-ups put up better numbers than they can sustain in the most competitve environment. Guys like David Cooper, Lawrie, etc (or pitchers).. As they would benefit fron watered down comp and teams not playing for anything

[KingKat]

As i mentioned, im a believer in the human element in addition to advanced stats. If youre a veteran and your team isnt playing for anything, I also think that changes the environment. Plus theyre worn down.. Thats why you see a lot of guys shut it down when they otherwise wouldnt

 

I was actually suggesting that call-ups put up better numbers than they can sustain in the most competitve environment. Guys like David Cooper, Lawrie, etc (or pitchers).. As they would benefit fron watered down comp and teams not playing for anything

 

I feel callup performances are worthless anyways. The sample size is too small regardless of the state of competition.

[connorp]

I feel callup performances are worthless anyways. The sample size is too small regardless of the state of competition.

 

Yeah this is true too. Point is i dont like to get excited or judge a guy based on their Sep

[KingKat]

Yeah this is true too. Point is i dont like to get excited or judge a guy based on their Sep

 

And you shouldn't. What I'd like to see though is the validity of the idea that the field gets watered down get tested by measuring the performance of the other players. Do we see a consistent trend where year after year, the veteran players get a boost in performance that could be tied to the watering down of the overall competition level? I suspect you wouldn't. I suspect you can put as much stock in a September sample as any other one month sample (which admiteddly isn't much anyways).

[Chappy]

Exactly Jay. Lots of success lately turning relievers into starters and when your Bullpen is overloaded with live arms it makes sense to try turning some into starters. Obviously we can,t keep all these BP arms as so many are out of options .. I would be doing this with several including McGowan.

 

They must feel he has turned the corner with his control and off speed pitches.

 

I would add that even with a trade we have an overloaded BP and you can still move them back to the BP if it doesn,t work.

 

See, no harm, no foul.

 

I hope we can extract some value here but I doubt we do. No harm though I guess.

[Chappy]

Yup, I sent you a PM, but the link didn't work, sorry mate.

 

No worries, thanks for trying though, I appreciate it.