Mc-Cann article part two

[leaffie]

Who should get him?

 

 

 

 

So, if McCann gets his $100 million, who's the most likely to give it to him? For a team that wants to overpay, New York (the Bronx, not Queens) is the most logical destination for McCann.

 

Even with the Yankees' self-imposed salary cap, they need a catcher for 2014. Top prospect Gary Sanchez has only 23 Double-A games under his belt and isn't ready yet, and Chris Stewart is as obvious a non-tender candidate as anyone on the roster. If McCann holds up well at catcher, Sanchez's raw power potential, if it fully develops, gives the Yankees a surplus of quality catchers, a very nice problem for anyone. Even if McCann doesn't hold up well, he still has some short-term value behind the plate and a left-handed pull hitter who can crush a mistake is a good fit for Yankee Stadium.

 

Buster Olney has mentioned that the Rangers could be in on McCann, and they also would make sense in that their starting catchers from 2013, A.J. Pierzynski and Geovany Soto, are headed to free agency, they can carry a high payroll and don't currently have a catcher in the pipeline. The issue for the Rangers is that Nelson Cruz, David Murphy and Matt Garza also are eligible for free agency and they might decide it's wiser to spend their free-agent dollars on the outfield and rotation.

 

Another team with playoff aspirations that got very little from its backstops this season is the Toronto Blue Jays. In 2013, Jays catchers combined for minus-1.1 WAR per FanGraphs, which is less than every team but the Marlins. Toronto's issue is that it already has $110 million committed for 2014 even before factoring in arbitration raises for the likes of Colby Rasmus. Considering the Jays carried a $119 payroll in 2013, it's hard to see McCann as a fit unless they clear a lot of money elsewhere.

 

When you break it down, the Yankees are the obvious fit for McCann in terms of finances and need. They would be happy with him in the short term, but if he really gets more than $100 million, there are going to be a lot of disappointed Yankees fans come 2017.

[Errorcebia]

He's a goon. I don't want him. How many fights did he start this year for no reason?

[GD]

He's a goon. I don't want him. How many fights did he start this year for no reason?

 

He's kind of good at hitting baseballs and catching them though.

[GD]

Ruiz is just as good and will come much cheaper.

 

Just as good? I dunno if I agree with that. Ruiz's one good season in recent memory was on a .339 BABIP and I dunno if it's reasonable to expect much more than his career 105 wRC+, whereas is younger and boasts a 117 wRC+ while both being excellent at framing.

[leaffie]

wRC+ 2010-13:

Ruiz - 127, 108, 151, 89

McCann - 123, 122, 87, 122

 

Steamer Projections:

Ruiz - 114 wRC+, 3.4 WAR

McCann - 118 wRC+, 3.5 WAR

 

It's really not clear that McCann is better.

 

Edit: Here's a custom leaderboard with their past five seasons: http://tinyurl.com/ljotsjo . Ruiz is the better hitter in a pretty extensive sample.

 

FWIW, Kevin Kennedy has him ending up with Jays

[GD]

wRC+ 2010-13:

Ruiz - 127, 108, 151, 89

McCann - 123, 122, 87, 122

 

Steamer Projections:

Ruiz - 114 wRC+, 3.4 WAR

McCann - 118 wRC+, 3.5 WAR

 

It's really not clear that McCann is better.

 

Edit: Here's a custom leaderboard with their past five seasons: http://tinyurl.com/ljotsjo . Ruiz is the better hitter in a pretty extensive sample.

 

McCann's 2012 was injury plagued though wasn't it? I don't like writing stuff on uncertainly like that but at the same time I'm not sure it's the most reliable sample.

 

Fast has McCann as a +1.3 win framer per 10,000 pitches, and Ruiz as a -0.7. JFaS' study supports this as well, having the Braves add 4 runs through framing and the Phillies lose 9.

 

Those shouldn't be taken as exact numbers but the data has shown McCann to be considerably better at framing (don't know why I thought Ruiz was excellent) and that certainly sets them apart.

 

So framing numbers and the fact that McCann's 87 wRC+ might not be an entirely reliable sample are my arguments, more or less.

 

And of course you had to put Arencibia in there.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

Toronto's issue is that it already has $110 million committed for 2014 even before factoring in arbitration raises for the likes of Colby Rasmus. Considering the Jays carried a $119 payroll in 2013, it's hard to see McCann as a fit unless they clear a lot of money elsewhere.

 

This theory has no merit. The Jays are a big market team with rich ownership. Their payroll has grown but is nowhere near the historical levels of the early 1990s when they at times had the largest payroll in baseball. And Rasmus does NOT have to be signed long term if they can find a better fit free agent at a position they have a more dire need.

 

I am frankly tired of people saying the Jays have payroll issues. They don't. The Yankees, the Dodgers have higher payrolls. The Yankees have stated they do not wish to breach the luxury tax. The Jays have quite a bit of room before this becomes an issue. And they have flexibility beyond 2014, with movable contracts ( eg Bautista ) and only a few troublesome contracts on the books. No ARod or Pujols type deals; Buerhle's about the only god awful contract they have.

 

If you are wondering why the Jays had a much lower payroll in the recent past, there are several reasons. One, Interbrew was a disasterous owner who simply wanted to make money off the team ( or not lose money depending on how you bookkeep ). Two, the $CDN went to 0.65 $US.

Edited October 18, 2013 by Cooler Heads Prevail

[Jimcanuck]

what will happen is AA signs McCann for $100M, trades JPA for balls, and JPA outperforms McCann over the life of the contract.

 

it's the Blue Jay Way!