Kevin Seitzer possibly new BlueJays hitting coach

[Angrioter]

I'm not hoping for any miracles, just think that these guys have contact hitter skillsets, so why not bring in a coach who values contact to all fields. I see Lawrie as one day being a .305/.380/.460 hitter, rather than .265/.355/.510.

 

The kid has pop and as the singles increase the slugging (No-ISO).

 

Up AVG = Up SLG

 

#Wright2.0

[TheHurl]

.270/.330/.450 is the best season I see him having moving forward. I'm really not a believer in his bat as being better than what he is now.

[TheHurl]

If someone set a line of number of Lawrie .800 OPS (with 500 PAs) seasons at 2, I'd be betting the under.

[Angrioter]

.270/.330/.450 is the best season I see him having moving forward. I'm really not a believer in his bat as being better than what he is now.

 

Lawrie tends to hit the ball weakly. His strikeout rate is low because he doesn't goes deep in the count. If he improve the pitch recognition then his offensive production would improve drastically.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

And of course I can see Lawrie hitting the 420...and I'm not talking about his slugging percentage.

 

Quoted because nobody else seemed to notice this gem.

[Olerud363]

If someone set a line of number of Lawrie .800 OPS (with 500 PAs) seasons at 2, I'd be betting the under.

 

His current top 10 comparables on bbref include Andy Carey (0 500 at bat /.800 ops), Fernando Tatis (1), Aramis Ramizez (9), Dale Murphy (7), Adam Jones (2 so far, likely to have more), Jim Presley (1), Bill Melton (3), Row Howell (0), Corey Patterson (0), Robin Ventura (8).

 

So that is 9-8-7-3-2*-1-1-0-0-0 .800 ops/500 ab seasons for those guys.

 

(Edit: So if this is an indication, betting the under would be reasonable.... not an obvious bet, but reasonable).

 

4 guys over 2... 3 way over, with Jones likely to add a few more.

 

I think people are still underestimating his "ceiling"... but have a good read on his "likely" outcome. Likely is Kelly Gruberish... Ceiling... still Scott Rolenish...

 

Using this simple model (top 10 comparables) there is a 1/3 chance of a dissapointing career, 1/3 of an OKish career, and still 1/3 chance of an allstar career.

 

As I've said on other threads I am hot a big believer in over-scouting his swing, and stuff like that (hole in his swing kind of thing). I do take the "peronality" analysis stuff a bit more seriously... so if someone has inside (or perhaps just publically known) info, that he's a douche, can't be coached... so will never be able to listen to coaches, maintain his swing, take care of himself, stay healthy... that might happen.

[KingKat]

 

As I've said on other threads I am hot a big believer in over-scouting his swing, and stuff like that (hole in his swing kind of thing). I do take the "peronality" analysis stuff a bit more seriously... so if someone has inside (or perhaps just publically known) info, that he's a douche, can't be coached... so will never be able to listen to coaches, maintain his swing, take care of himself, stay healthy... that might happen.

 

For what little it's worth, I think Lawrie os the kind of guy who needs to fail on his own before he makes adjustment but his commitment to baseball and to his own success is such that I have no doubt that he will make them. We've already seen him quiet things down considerably at the plate and become a little less gung-ho on the field. We may look back on that camera bay fall as a turning point for him. Short term (probably excruciating) pain for long term gain if you will. Difficult baseball players, especially white ones, often get dubbed with the "he just loves the game too much" cliché but I really buy it when it comes to Lawrie. I really do think his intensity comes from genuine passion for baseball (well that and excessive Red Bull consomption). Elite offensive productions probably isn't in the cards but steadier production and consistent overall value is something I expect and look forward to.

[Angrioter]

Here's how I'd normally distribute the possible peak outcomes.

 

+3 peak: .315/.395/.505 (MVP candidate)

+2 peak: .300/.370/.480

+1 peak: .285/.350/.450

Mean peak: .270/.335/.435 (average regular)

-1 peak: .260/.325/.415

-2 peak: .250/.315/.390

-3 peak: .240/.300/.370 (totally collapses)

 

 

You should add the age of the player in question.

[z3r0s]

I'm not that familiar with any projection systems, but STEAMERS on Fangraphs has Brett listed for the following on his age 24 season;

 

Slash Line; .271/.329/.439

wOBA; .336

wRC+; 110

WAR; 3.0

 

Def; 2.4. I think its reasonable to assume this could be much higher given his 6.3 in 2012.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Here's how I'd normally distribute the possible peak outcomes.

Mean peak: .270/.335/.435 (average regular) /QUOTE]

 

With his defense, he'd probably be a consistent 4+ WAR player with that slash line. I think most of us would take that at this point.

[ElNik2013]

I'm not hoping for any miracles, just think that these guys have contact hitter skillsets, so why not bring in a coach who values contact to all fields. I see Lawrie as one day being a .305/.380/.420 hitter, rather than .265/.355/.510.

 

 

Seitzer seems like a good hire, but I don't think Mottola was against the contact to all fields approach. For me it's more about the Mottola firing. I know he's just a coach and Gibbons probably wants his own guy, but this just doesn't sit well with me, especially the story about Murphy and Mottola being a tandem, that's pure BS from AA, he just didn't have the balls to fire Murphy and give the job to Mottola last year. Anyway, let's hope things work out.

[Olerud363]

Here's how I'd normally distribute the possible peak outcomes.

 

+3 peak: .315/.395/.505 (MVP candidate)

+2 peak: .300/.370/.480

+1 peak: .285/.350/.450

Mean peak: .270/.335/.435 (average regular)

-1 peak: .260/.325/.415

-2 peak: .250/.315/.390

-3 peak: .240/.300/.370 (totally collapses)

 

That looks pretty reasonable. The +3 peak looks a bit Gary Shefield... and if you did "comparables" allowing age to drift a bit (meaning Sheffield would still be a comparable because through age 22 he was much like Lawrie through 23, but some guy who did the same thing at 28 wouldn't be a comparable) then Shefield and Lawrie are very comparable, including injury and attitude issues.... Shefield would be the absolute best outcome of that type of player I am guessing...

[z3r0s]

That looks pretty reasonable. The +3 peak looks a bit Gary Shefield... and if you did "comparables" allowing age to drift a bit (meaning Sheffield would still be a comparable because through age 22 he was much like Lawrie through 23, but some guy who did the same thing at 28 wouldn't be a comparable) then Shefield and Lawrie are very comparable, including injury and attitude issues.... Shefield would be the absolute best outcome of that type of player I am guessing...

 

I don't think Brett has Gary power... Plus Sheffields bat with Lawries D would make him a BEAST.

[Angrioter]

 

Kenny Williams attack again

[GD]

Oh f*** off Chicago

[Angrioter]

[KingKat]

 

Let's hope Mottola returns to coach the minor leaguers although this is probably good news regardless of that.

[JaysRap]

Let's hope Mottola returns to coach the minor leaguers although this is probably good news regardless of that.

 

Agreed. Maybe this is a sign that AA is determined to get ahead of things and move quickly.

[Sammy225]

Agreed. Maybe this is a sign that AA is determined to get ahead of things and move quickly.

 

No I think we are just lucky that this is one of Gibbons Buds.

[Sammy225]

I definitely like that Seitzer is one of Gibby's guys, and not AA's. This team could use some outside influence and Seitzer should bring that.

 

Also: I sent you a DDL proboards PM!

 

I got it! I will take a closer look at lunch because I am working really hard right now lol.

[SAAviour]

To me this is the clearest sign joeybats is potentially gone this year. His start early and pull the ball is exactly opposite of what Seitzer preaches.

Then again, they might just let Bautista do his own thing.

[Sammy225]

To me this is the clearest sign joeybats is potentially gone this year. His start early and pull the ball is exactly opposite of what Seitzer preaches.

Then again, they might just let Bautista do his own thing.

 

I would like to see him get dealt this winter for a younger player because from this point on his value is going to do nothing but drop, however I can't see Beest wanting to trade a "fan favorite".

 

Another point I don't think a theory of a hitting coach on any team will apply to all players. Part of being a hitting coach is adapting to players and I can't see Seitzer going to do too much tinkering with Jose.

[G-Snarls]

Mark Teahen (yep, that Mark Teahen) talking about Seitzer as a hitting coach. Listen if you care.

 

http://pmd.fan590.com/audio_on_demand-3/MarkTeahen-with-Jeff-Blair-jb-20131101-Interview.mp3

[Sorrow]

I'm unsure if this article was ever posted, I don't subscribe so I'll link it to a blog that has it broken down.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?type=2&articleid=20474

 

http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/2013/08/the-missing-ingredient.html?m=0

 

"Back in May, Russell Carleton published a study at Baseball Prospectus that evaluated hitting coaches based on whether the hitters under their tutelage improved or declined. By his methodology – and it’s only one way of looking at things – Kevin Seitzer was worth about 58 runs over an average hitting coach over the course of a season. Among every hitting coach of the last 20 years who had held the job for more than two seasons, the only hitting coach worth more was Clint Hurdle – who coached for the Rockies from 1997 to 2001, before the humidor, when Coors Field was maybe the best hitters' park in world history. Carleton admits that the extreme conditions may have affected the numbers in a way he could not control for, and made Hurdle look better than he was."

 

Will be intersting to see how it breaks down next season.

[GD]

I don't see how that will change anything

 

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Tapatalk 2

 

Not that I believe the study or not (haven't read it), but you don't see how 58 runs would change anything? Holy f***

[Jays]

Not that I believe the study or not (haven't read it), but you don't see how 58 runs would change anything? Holy f***

 

Chad Mottola who? I'm starting to love our 6 WAR hitting coach already!

[GD]

Chad Mottola who? I'm starting to love our 6 WAR hitting coach already!

 

Not to miss the joke, but I find it extremely hard to believe that any hitting coach could be worth 6 WAR even over a decent time frame.

[GD]

I'll believe some guys can have that type of impact, but I don't believe they're identifiable. There are way too many variables to account for.

 

Maybe it's plausible in rare cases but I don't think we can quantify that right now.

[Abomination]

I could see a great hitting coach who's had a set group of guys for a few years adding that kind of value, but I wouldn't expect someone to suddenly step in and get those kind of results first year. Basically impossible to quantify regardless.

[GD]

but I wouldn't expect someone to suddenly step in and get those kind of results first year.

 

Wasn't this a multi year study?