AA and 1993

[Olerud363]

http://sports.nationalpost.com/2013/10/02/blue-jays-vow-to-turn-rotation-into-a-strength-next-season/

 

"I think the one certainty is, if you’re towards the bottom rung [in starters’ ERA], you have no chance at all."

 

In 1993 the Toronto Blue Jays had 3 guys get on base over .400, had the top 3 hitters in the league, and had a great bullpen, leading the league in bullpen era by quite a bit.

 

The relievers had a 3.30 era, starters 4.63 and were tied for 5th last.

 

You get into a lot of semantics here... I mean maybe 5th last, or 6th isn't bottom of the rung.. and the WAR was a bit better then that.

 

But it should be entirely obvious there's more than one way to skin a cat.

 

It's very unlikely a team can make the playoffs being 2nd last in starters ERA. But it's unlikely this exact same group will be 2nd last again... there will be some natural improvement.

 

It just worries me that AA doesn't seem to understand that teams win by scoring more runs then the other guys. Jays need more wins. There are mutliple ways to get them. It doesn't matter if they come from Brian McCann or Ervin Santana. It doesn't matter if they come from Tanaka or Utley (with Lawrie on second).

 

It just irritates me that AA has these seemingly simplistic dogmatic views, instead of viewing this situation as a complicated puzzle with multiple solutions.

[connorp]

This is a fairly poop analysis by yourself...

 

"It just worries me that AA doesn't seem to understand that teams win by scoring more runs then the other guys."

 

He does. Anyone does. You score more runs then the other team by BOTH scoring and preventing. So which is more ideal historically maybe?.. But instead of offering an educated analysis studying a bunch of recent playoff/winnings teams or something, you give a cherry picked example from a different era.. at least give some examples of what would happen (runs wise and what it might mean for W-L) if we would have gotten Player X instead of using Player Y. But even doing that is very easy in hindsight. Going into the season with a grand scheme is something else entirely

 

Idk.. just seemed like a pretty s*** post. "You win more games by scoring more than the next team.. AA doesnt understand that"

[Nox]

Focusing solely on your starting pitcher's ERA is pretty stupid though.

 

The OP is basically saying your focus should be to increase your run differential (efficiently) at all times. Quotes from AA like the one he provided hint that the Fat Greek doesn't really get that.

[connorp]

Jays offense is filled with guys that are 50-50 shots for next year and beyond.. I feel better having a more balanced approach then thinking if we add some more runs on O (Ellsbury and Ruiz say), we will compete as our O will carry the day.

 

Our BP is 50/50 too, like most other pens.. so I think worrying over how many innings you expect your SP to give you next year isnt such a bad thing.

[G-Snarls]

Yeah, I'll still take a good starting rotation over a mediocre one. Thanks.

[connorp]

Yeah, I'll still take a good starting rotation over a mediocre one. Thanks.

 

Yeah, really. Great example with the 93 Jays too. Like saying saying if you have an offense like the NYY in years past, you can get away without having great SP... thanks tips

[dineke]

AA doesn't know that you win by scoring more runs than the other team? No wonder he sucks!

[Candy Maldonado]

lol @ using only one extremely rare example from 20 years ago.

[Olerud363]

This is a fairly poop analysis by yourself...

 

"It just worries me that AA doesn't seem to understand that teams win by scoring more runs then the other guys."

 

He does. Anyone does. You score more runs then the other team by BOTH scoring and preventing. So which is more ideal historically maybe?.. But instead of offering an educated analysis studying a bunch of recent playoff/winnings teams or something, you give a cherry picked example from a different era.. at least give some examples of what would happen (runs wise and what it might mean for W-L) if we would have gotten Player X instead of using Player Y. But even doing that is very easy in hindsight. Going into the season with a grand scheme is something else entirely

 

Idk.. just seemed like a pretty s*** post. "You win more games by scoring more than the next team.. AA doesnt understand that"

 

Myself and others have brought up this in more detail.

 

Izturus, Melky, Arencibia, Bonificia did the damage on the offensive side. Replacing these guys with average players would have a huge impact.

 

Ortiz, Lincoln, Romero, did the damage on the pitching side. The thing is no one was great pitching... but no one was awful either. Even Morrow and Johnson didn't have crazy negative WAR. So unless you get a number one pitcher it's going to be hard to improve upon what can be reasonably expected for next year.

 

Neither is more ideal historically... There both equal. But by assuming pitching is the "major" problem he's gonna end up making the pitching better but crash the offense.

[TBJ12]

Can you stop making stupid threads? Just have a massive Olereud thread for yourself.

 

I second this. He posts the same old s*** everyday.

 

We get it man, you don't like AA, Beaston, Stoeten or anyone else who's employed by the Jays.

[NorthOf49]

I'm pretty convinced based on his comments that he doesn't look at players in terms of how many runs/wins they project to create/prevent.

Yep. AA seems to believe (like some WAR haters on this forum do) that hitting, pitching and defense make up a constant percentage of production (perhaps 40%, 50%, 10%), and not that baseball is a game of run differential. He thinks that the team has filled its offensive quota, so now must focus only on pitching.

Edited October 4, 2013 by NorthOf49

[Olerud363]

I'm one of Olerud's biggest fans, and even I must say it's getting to be a bit much.

 

New threads are for totally new conversation topics. AA talking about pitching is covered in many other recent threads.

 

I don't mean to start topics that are allready covered. Perhaps I didn't explain the point I'm trying to make here??

 

As fans we can't go out and scout players (atleast regularly), we can't be inside the clubhouse... but if someone makes a statement like "If you are towards the bottom runs in Starters ERA you have no chance at all". We can go on the internet and see if that is true.

 

The 1993 Blue Jays were an interesting example because... well for one that was the last time we won. So if the GM of our own team doesn't seem to know the nature of our last playoff team?? I don't know that is... concerning.

 

The 2010 Yankees did not have great starting pitching, In 2009 the playoff bound twins were 3rd last in starting pitching. There are teams like this, similiar to the 93 Jays that make the playoffs every couple years.

 

In 2008 the Blue Jays were first by a wide margin in starting pitching. They did not make the playoffs.

[NorthOf49]

I don't mean to start topics that are allready covered. Perhaps I didn't explain the point I'm trying to make here??

 

As fans we can't go out and scout players (atleast regularly), we can't be inside the clubhouse... but if someone makes a statement like "If you are towards the bottom runs in Starters ERA you have no chance at all". We can go on the internet and see if that is true.

 

The 1993 Blue Jays were an interesting example because... well for one that was the last time we won. So if the GM of our own team doesn't seem to know the nature of our last playoff team?? I don't know that is... concerning.

 

The 2010 Yankees did not have great starting pitching, In 2009 the playoff bound twins were 3rd last in starting pitching. There are teams like this, similiar to the 93 Jays that make the playoffs every couple years.

 

In 2008 the Blue Jays were first by a wide margin in starting pitching. They did not make the playoffs.

You did make good points, I'm just saying you could have found some other thread to post in. Four of your threads are in the most recent 20.. that's too many!

 

Any team can overcome any amount of hitting/pitching failure as long as they post a good run differential. As Peter Brand said, "In order to buy wins, you need to buy runs." Net runs, that's the name of the game.

 

AA puts his faith in 1880s-era adages, and in worshipping them is blowing tens of millions of dollars.

[connorp]

You did make good points, I'm just saying you could have found some other thread to post in. Four of your threads are in the most recent 20.. that's too many!

 

Any team can overcome any amount of hitting/pitching failure as long as they post a good run differential. As Peter Brand said, "In order to buy wins, you need to buy runs." Net runs, that's the name of the game.

 

AA puts his faith in 1880s-era adages, and in worshipping them is blowing tens of millions of dollars.

 

Idk.. I think if you're going to indict AA for the failure, you would have to base it on talent evaluation or something. There wasnt any problems with his premise (in adding W's I mean) as he in fact added W's on both sides of the ball this year. Most thought he gave away too much (which I agreed on but that's a separate argument).. but most of us thought he put a playoff team together. I think that was fully backed up by projections.

[connorp]

Yeah, Im not saying it took any skill to do what AA did. He's a s***** GM.. wasnt endorsing him

 

but.. I mean the hope was the team was going to be a contender for 2-3 years.. not one.. but now it's a mess

[connorp]

That hope was always too optimistic. They projected at like 88 wins in 2013, JJ was expiring, their best players are older than 30, and payroll had to increase in 2014 just to maintain the 2013 roster sans JJ. 2013 was always going to be their best shot with this current group. That's what I hated at the time - it felt like they had one chance in 2013, and if that went wrong they were f***ed.

 

Well, in an ideal world Dickey, MB, and Morrow were 3 good SP options for 2-3 seasons. Reyes, Melky, JB, Edwin, Rasmus, Lawrie had spots. With supporting pieces that was supposed to be a good core for 2-3 year run. When youre winning its easier to add.... Easy to laugh at now though. But I really think AA sucks in the draft so it would have all crashed eventually. Happy if he goes.

[TheHurl]

Focusing solely on your starting pitcher's ERA is pretty stupid though.

 

The OP is basically saying your focus should be to increase your run differential (efficiently) at all times. Quotes from AA like the one he provided hint that the Fat Greek doesn't really get that.

 

I love the way OPS is his offensive go to stat and Starters ERA is his pitching stat...keeps the Jeff Blair's of the world believing that AA "teeters the line between Scouting and stats"

 

As for Olerud...there have been 19 teams that have won championships since the 1993 team, maybe we don't need to emulate 92 or 93 and just focus on lucking out with the talent we have or can acquire (look at the Braves they are an incredibly ugly team and have their version of JPA batting clean up) yet they are still alive in these playoffs. Improving the pitching staff will help the Jays...plain and simple!

[Howard Roark]

And in what world is 2-3 years of contention some kind of promised land? WTF? Whatever happened to all that talk of building a quality organization that hopes to contend on a near-perennial basis based on maintaining a quality farm?

 

Even allowing for their bait-and-switch lowered expectations, they f***ing failed hard.

[connorp]

And in what world is 2-3 years of contention some kind of promised land? WTF? Whatever happened to all that talk of building a quality organization that hopes to contend on a near-perennial basis based on maintaining a quality farm?

 

Even allowing for their bait-and-switch lowered expectations, they f***ing failed hard.

 

Well yeah.. But by the end of 2012 it was pretty clear we werent going to be a good team in the near future. All that "superior scouting" s*** was exposed as a mirage.

 

Was either play to win or switch horses (GM)

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Can you stop making stupid threads? Just have a massive Olereud thread for yourself.

 

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