Fan Graphs WAR

[Olerud363]

Notes:

 

One real weird thing, I have Alvarez twice because he actually was one of the Marlins most productive hitters, 5th or so in hitting, weird, in the final estimate of WAR given up I took this out, obviously it wouldn't of happened with the Jays.

 

Did this a couple of ways. Looked at the main trades. I did take out the Indians trade (because that was a bit of fluke that biases things but it still happened so I mention it). I also did the final calculation without Boni/Hech. The reason being Hech had huge negative value. He would not of played 150 games with the Jays (assuming Escobar). Boni and Hech were both negative, but Hech would of had much less playing time with the Jays. So when evaluating the net impact of the trades it's not really accurate to say "thank god we got rid of Hech, he would of dragged us down a couple wins, probably he would of got enough playing time, but who knows.

 

1 Million other ways one could analyze this making assumptions on playing time

 

All this being said the net impact of the trades was nothing, 73 wins last year, 74 this year. If the trades were not made how would we of replaced 400 innings from Dickey/Buerhle??

 

AA (fat non-functional mind) can't answer that question. But the rest of the world can. Henderson Alvarez would of replaced 1/4... Cecil would probably of Started. You get lucky with a Kazmir or Liriano... give Romero starts but get Unlucky, give Nolin some starts it works, or maybe doesn't, same with Stroman, even Synd is on the radar.

 

You throw s*** around, some of it works, some it doesn't, in the end you get the 400 innings at slightly less value then Dickey/Buerhle... but you also have better defense with Escobar and someone not Melky in left. So the wins even out.

 

All the crazy stuff last winter did nothing. No need for analyis, win loss record tells that story,.

 

******************************Incoming********************************************

 

(from Marlins)

 

Reyes 2.2

Boni -0.4

Beurhle 2.5

Johnson 0.5

 

4.8

(positive from marlins) 5.2

 

(from Mets)

Thole -0.5

Dickey 2.0

 

Melky -0.9

 

Rogers 0.4

 

Total - 5.8

(Without Indians trade) 5.4

 

FINAL ESTIMATE OF WAR COMING IN

(Without Indians and Hech/Boni without Alvarez hitting) 4.5

 

*******************************Outgoing************************************

 

To Marlins

 

Marisnick -0.2

Alvarez 0.5

Mathis -0.5

Hechavaria -1.9

Alvarez 1.9

Escobar 3.9

 

(total outgoing to Marlins/Rays) 2.8

(total positive to Marlins/Rays) 5.8

 

To Mets

 

d'Arnaud 0.1

 

To Indians

Gomes 3.7

 

Outgoing 6.6

(without Indians Trade) 2.9

 

FINAL ESTIMATE OF WAR GOING OUT

(Without Indians and Hech/Boni) 4.9

Edited September 30, 2013 by Olerud363

[Olerud363]

One final thing: An obvious thing. These trades were designed to "win now" but they had neglible impact on the now.

 

Things probably get worse from here in unexpected ways. And we've allready seen that with Yan Gomes.

 

Our prospects are now all over the place, Miami, New York, Houston... and in the coming years there will be nonlinear unexpected happenings... a few will burn us (like Michael Young and Jeff Kent did). As we add up the WAR next year, the year after, etc. it may get much, much worse in unexpected ways.

[G-Snarls]

I have more of a problem with the s***** performance of the guys we got (Johnson, Bonifacio especially) more so than what we gave away in the Marlins trade.

 

Hech is brutal and paid a lot more than league minimum, so it actually helped to get rid of him. Marisnick is not looking like anything special. Escobar hurts but it was a forgone conclusion that he was leaving. Alvarez hurts a bit and I liked him, but I'm very happy with Buerhle and Reyes, contracts notwithstanding. If Josh Johnson had had even a 2 WAR season (he should have surpassed that) then it wouldn't hurt nearly so bad to see what Alvarez did this year.

[TheHurl]

I have more of a problem with the s***** performance of the guys we got (Johnson, Bonifacio especially) more so than what we gave away in the Marlins trade.

 

Hech is brutal and paid a lot more than league minimum, so it actually helped to get rid of him. Marisnick is not looking like anything special. Escobar hurts but it was a forgone conclusion that he was leaving. Alvarez hurts a bit and I liked him, but I'm very happy with Buerhle and Reyes, contracts notwithstanding. If Josh Johnson had had even a 2 WAR season (he should have surpassed that) then it wouldn't hurt nearly so bad to see what Alvarez did this year.

 

Hech goes back to league minimum next year I believe. We paid him $8.25M of his $10M. Marisnick's AA performance put him back into prospect status even if his pro debut wasn't great. At a minimum he's going to be a guy that faces lefties, runs well and plays solid D. Assuming we are keeping Rasmus he's a million times better fit for this team than Gose right now. Nicolino's K's dropped off but he still had good results. Value is value and everyone who went to Florida has as much or more value now than when we traded them except for Hech.

[G-Snarls]

Hech goes back to league minimum next year I believe. We paid him $8.25M of his $10M. Marisnick's AA performance put him back into prospect status even if his pro debut wasn't great. At a minimum he's going to be a guy that faces lefties, runs well and plays solid D. Assuming we are keeping Rasmus he's a million times better fit for this team than Gose right now. Nicolino's K's dropped off but he still had good results. Value is value and everyone who went to Florida has as much or more value now than when we traded them except for Hech.

 

Didn't know that about Hech's contract. So we paid 8M ish to him and he never played a major league game in a Blue Jays uniform? Incredible. So much wasted $$ on this team lately. Romero. Happ. Johnson. Melky. Ug just Ug.

[Olerud363]

Just got a chance at lunch to clean up that report a bit. I am not Stoeten with the ability to spend all day on this stuff (and admittedly he does an OK job polishing it all up, grammatically, spelling wise, avoiding typos and mix ups etc.)

 

Actually had War out and War in mislabeled.

 

Based on some of the assumptions I made I estimate we sent 4.9 WAR out, and got 4.5 in. Lost 1/2 a win in all this. You have to make assumptions in this... cause you can't assume Hech would of played 150 games with the Jays... stuff like that. You have to decide wether to include Yan Gomes (I did not in the final).

 

But whatever. The moves did nothing either way. For the privelege of sending away much of the farm system the Jays neither lost or gained in 2013.

[G-Snarls]

He played a few

 

Oh yeah we had him at 2B a few times didn't we. Forgot.

 

I find most of our second baseman easily forgettable.

[Jays]

Oh yeah we had him at 2B a few times didn't we. Forgot.

 

I find most of our second baseman easily forgettable.

 

What about Alomar? errr... I mean Goins... sorry, sometimes I get the two confused.

[Angrioter]

Someone has the updated wOBA formula fangraphs?

 

 

2012

wOBA =*(0.691×uBB + 0.722×HBP + 0.884×1B + 1.257×2B + 1.593×3B +2.058×HR) / PA

 

Edwin Encarnacion

PA 644

uBB 84

HBP 11

1B 86

2B 24

3B 0

HR 42

 

wOBA = [(0.691×84) + (0.722×11) + (0.884×86) + (1.257×24) + (1.593×0) +2.058×42)] / 644

wOBA = 258.614/644 = .402

 

A difference of 0.006 regarding to fangraphs (Edwin .396 fangraphs wOBA)

[Angrioter]

You can always get the coefficients off their 'Guts!' page: http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx

 

I know. I used the correct coefficients for the 2012 season. and the results aren't the same.

 

I'm updating the formula for Dominican winter baseball.

[Angrioter]

You have to take intentional walks out.

 

So Edwin had only 72 uBB in 2012, with the wOBA denominator being 632, not the full 644. That should make up the difference.

 

(84 -12)/ (PA -12) = 84/PA

 

PA doesn't include IBB.............PA = AB + uBB + HBP + SF

[Angrioter]

If that were true, Barry Bonds would have recorded 737 PA in 2004. Plate Appearances cover every appearance at the plate. They're not like At Bats.

 

Yeah, My bad.

 

Thanks bro. Already resolved.

[Angrioter]

No problem. How's the team looking this year (or has the draft not happened yet)?

 

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