Stoeten, AA the latest on starters!

[DuckDuckGose]

For me Tanaka and/or Garza make the most sense. Neither cost a draft pick and both project at least as good number 2/3 starters.

 

Garza is the top name IMO. I'm a believer in Tanaka but he isn't Darvish. Garza and Tanaka are in the same ballpark talent-wise but Garza will be significantly cheaper IMO. However, if the cost is about the same either would be a good get.

[jaysblue]

Fat chance Parker is ever a 5 WAR guy as well. He's much more of a mid-rotation guy albeit a good one. For what it would cost it doesn't make sense for the Jays IMO.

 

I don't see Parker ever being an ace - he's more of a mid rotation guy like you said, especially in the AL East. He's young and under control which makes him valuable, though you can likely sign a veteran FA for a decent price year-to-year who could provide a similar amount of value.

[G-Snarls]

Garza is the top name IMO. I'm a believer in Tanaka but he isn't Darvish. Garza and Tanaka are in the same ballpark talent-wise but Garza will be significantly cheaper IMO. However, if the cost is about the same either would be a good get.

 

Neither will be tied to draft pick compensation either which is nice. I want AA in hard on one of them.

[DuckDuckGose]

I don't see Parker ever being an ace - he's more of a mid rotation guy like you said, especially in the AL East. He's young and under control which makes him valuable, though you can likely sign a veteran FA for a decent price year-to-year who could provide a similar amount of value.

 

Just sign Garza and keep whichever of Sanchez/Osuna/Stroman it would cost then. Spending some money and keeping your top prospects is the best route right now IMO. Unless a true star is coming back, then give up some talent and get your guy -- we're talking the Lee's, Scherzer's, and Verlander's of the MLB though, not Parker.

[DuckDuckGose]

Neither will be tied to draft pick compensation either which is nice. I want AA in hard on one of them.

 

Couldn't agree more. I'm expecting a protected pick and AA to go hard after McCann so the draft pick is less of a concern for me. Hopefully they're picking 8th and 11th and they don't have to worry about comp picks as much. That being said if they somehow slip outside of the top 10 there will be even more of an incentive to land one of those two players. Keeping the draft pool and 2nd rounder would be a nice bonus either way though.

[GeorgiaPeach]

It's very unlikely that Sanchez is a 5 WAR guy. Parker also makes no money and is plenty controllable, so it's not like it would be a definite "win-now" move. I say go for it.

 

I have no idea why Sanchez +++ should be going to Oakland for Parker, but I guess fans want wins immediately, so lets just empty the farm and everyone can all have a good cry in a few years when there's nothing left.

[DuckDuckGose]

I have no idea why Sanchez +++ should be going to Oakland for Parker, but I guess fans want wins immediately, so lets just empty the farm and everyone can all have a good cry in a few years when there's nothing left.

 

You hit the nail on the head, wins immediately.If payroll doesn't go up you can bet AA will be selling a part of the farm for immediate wins.

[jaysblue]

Just sign Garza and keep whichever of Sanchez/Osuna/Stroman it would cost then. Spending some money and keeping your top prospects is the best route right now IMO. Unless a true star is coming back, then give up some talent and get your guy -- we're talking the Lee's, Scherzer's, and Verlander's of the MLB though, not Parker.

 

+1

 

The Jays are in no position to dump the farm, unless its for an elite ace like a Chris Sale, Bumgarner, Price etc. I have no problem with the Jays signing Garza, though depending on what the cost is. Perhaps something similar to what Burnett signed with the Yankees back in 2008 is what I'm guessing is the benchmark. Even if the Jays miss out on signing Garza, I have no problem with them going after Ubaldo Jimenez or Tim Lincecum, both whom could likely sign a modest 2-3 year deal.

[Olerud363]

Fat chance Parker is ever a 5 WAR guy as well. He's much more of a mid-rotation guy albeit a good one. For what it would cost it doesn't make sense for the Jays IMO.

 

There's a chance Parker is a 5 WAR guy once at age 26... there is a chance Sanchez is. There is an infinite number of possibilities.

 

If the goal is to win in the next two years, then we need to ride someone's peak. Ryan Dempster had a nice little peak 7,3,3 WARs or so 31-33.

 

It's hard to predict this kind of thing. But keep in mind that if you use a sound philosaphy over several player aqcuisitions you'll win enough.

 

Parker's peak might be as good dempsters. No, neither are Cliff Lee... but we don't have Cliff Lee as an option (and even off peak he is a good option).

 

So the strategy could be to capture someone's peak. Age 25 to 29 or so.

[jaysblue]

I have no idea why Sanchez +++ should be going to Oakland for Parker, but I guess fans want wins immediately, so lets just empty the farm and everyone can all have a good cry in a few years when there's nothing left.

 

Everyone thinks Parker or Griffin can potentially be a No. 2 likely. They are solid young pitchers under control, though they are not elite talent. Having Griffin or Parker pitching in the AL East, in the Rogers Centre for a majority of their starts, pitching against teams like Boston, Tampa, New York, Baltimore 4-5 times a season, their numbers wouldn't be as good. They are nothing more than mid-rotation guys, and the Jays could easily go out and sign veteran No. 3 or 4's every offseason who could provide similar value.

[jaysblue]

There's a chance Parker is a 5 WAR guy once at age 26... there is a chance Sanchez is. There is an infinite number of possibilities.

 

If the goal is to win in the next two years, then we need to ride someone's peak. Ryan Dempster had a nice little peak 7,3,3 WARs or so 31-33.

 

It's hard to predict this kind of thing. But keep in mind that if you use a sound philosaphy over several player aqcuisitions you'll win enough.

 

Parker's peak might be as good dempsters. No, neither are Cliff Lee... but we don't have Cliff Lee as an option (and even off peak he is a good option).

 

So the strategy could be to capture someone's peak. Age 25 to 29 or so.

 

What would you trade for Parker if you were in the GM's chair?

[DuckDuckGose]

Lincecum is a great buy low guy. He'd fit in pretty well and has been fairly durable over his career, I'd also love to see if Jamie Evans can get his velo back up in to the upper 90's as well. Halladay is another guy I would look at if healthy.

[jaysblue]

Another trade option/buy low guy would be Gallardo. I'd rather trade for him instead of Jarrod Parker or Griffin and I'm sure Gallardo would come cheaper.

[G-Snarls]

Lincecum is a great buy low guy. He'd fit in pretty well and has been fairly durable over his career

 

Plus he likes the relaxed marijuana laws up here so...

[jaysblue]

Lincecum is a great buy low guy. He'd fit in pretty well and has been fairly durable over his career, I'd also love to see if Jamie Evans can get his velo back up in to the upper 90's as well. Halladay is another guy I would look at if healthy.

 

Lincecum likely will sign a one year deal, or a modest 2-3 year deal since that would give him a chance to up his value and hit free agency again around 32 which at that time he likely would be able to net a nice contract if he's pitched well. He's no longer the ace or Cy Young winner he was in 2008 and 2009, though he's still a dependable No. 3 guy I think. He's durable (can give the Jays 200 IP) and does have good K rates, despite the diminished velocity. I'd rather sign Lincecum then trade the farm for someone like Parker or Griffin.

 

As for Doc, I'm afraid he's done. He was clocked out at 83 mph in his last start and I'm not even sure he gets a guaranteed contract this offseason unless there's a team out there willing to take a gamble. I'd sign Doc to a minor league deal, though not a guaranteed MLB deal.

[jaysblue]

Plus he likes the relaxed marijuana laws up here so...

 

Plus him and Jeremy Jeffress could become best pals...

[DuckDuckGose]

There's a chance Parker is a 5 WAR guy once at age 26... there is a chance Sanchez is. There is an infinite number of possibilities.

 

If the goal is to win in the next two years, then we need to ride someone's peak. Ryan Dempster had a nice little peak 7,3,3 WARs or so 31-33.

 

It's hard to predict this kind of thing. But keep in mind that if you use a sound philosaphy over several player aqcuisitions you'll win enough.

 

Parker's peak might be as good dempsters. No, neither are Cliff Lee... but we don't have Cliff Lee as an option (and even off peak he is a good option).

 

So the strategy could be to capture someone's peak. Age 25 to 29 or so.

 

Although he needs to still refine and harness his stuff Sanchez has better tools than Parker. Sanchez has the plus-plus FB and out true plus out-pitch to be a true ace. I like Parker, who also has good velocity but, he doesn't have the same upside as Sanchez. Don't get me wrong he does have a good shot to be a solid #2, he just doesn't have ace upside IMO. If the Jays are to be successful they need to develop their own star players. Selling off your top prospects for assets with a huge price-tag is an unsustainable strategy. Other organizations have sunk a large amount of money in to these players and have them under control for cheap for many years, they are in no urgency to move them. I'm sure AA could land a guy like Parker but, it will be at the cost of multiple high upside pieces against a GM with a penchant for pilfering talent.

[Olerud363]

What would you trade for Parker if you were in the GM's chair?

 

Obviously it depends what other moves are available. But say Sanchez+ for Parker is all that there is. So take it, or no big move in the winter. It still depends a bit.

 

If I was a fat-greek-sellout that was in a mess and had a bad boss, and I knew I wouldn't be GM when Sanchez was ready?? Knew that Rogers isn't as dumb as we think and there will be a total house cleaning after 2015?? Knowing that I would pretty much have to win in 2014/15. I think I'd have to make that trade. Sanchez+ for Parker.

 

On the other hand if I was a fat-greek-sellout, with sick ninja political skills, and I knew I'd be president of the Toronto Blue Jays by 2015 no matter what... I'd keep Sanchez, make a couple of bad but insignificant moves to humour the Beest, start planning for the rebuild in 2016. Possibly Sanchez would be a piece traded early to get all the pieces on the same timeline in 2020 or whenever the hell a real team arrives.

[G-Snarls]

Plus him and Jeremy Jeffress could become best pals...

 

#BongBuddies

[jaysblue]

Obviously it depends what other moves are available. But say Sanchez+ for Parker is all that there is. So take it, or no big move in the winter. It still depends a bit.

 

If I was a fat-greek-sellout that was in a mess and had a bad boss, and I knew I wouldn't be GM when Sanchez was ready?? Knew that Rogers isn't as dumb as we think and there will be a total house cleaning after 2015?? Knowing that I would pretty much have to win in 2014/15. I think I'd have to make that trade. Sanchez+ for Parker.

 

On the other hand if I was a fat-greek-sellout, with sick ninja political skills, and I knew I'd be president of the Toronto Blue Jays by 2015 no matter what... I'd keep Sanchez, make a couple of bad but insignificant moves to humour the Beest, start planning for the rebuild in 2016. Possibly Sanchez would be a piece traded early to get all the pieces on the same timeline in 2020 or whenever the hell a real team arrives.

 

I'd rather trade Sanchez + for someone like a Chris Sale, Madison Bumgarner, David Price etc. Wouldn't the Jays just be better to sign Tim Lincecum rather than trade Sanchez + for Parker?

[G-Snarls]

AA has really painted himself in to a corner

 

1. He can't go half assed in to next year (ie. fail to updrade SP and C) or he's doomed for failure and he knows it

 

2. He's (presumably) pushing payroll limits to some degree

 

3. He's already traded away half the good prospects and the ones he kept aren't all performing. He can't really afford to trade for a David Price or Chris Sale without losing the bit of quality farm (Sanchez, Stroman especially) he has left.

 

He really has no choice for 2014 but to throw good money after bad and pick up a FA catcher and SP and cross his fingers. If the team fails next year despite that it's time for a total rebuild and a new GM

[Olerud363]

I'd rather trade Sanchez + for someone like a Chris Sale, Madison Bumgarner, David Price etc. Wouldn't the Jays just be better to sign Tim Lincecum rather than trade Sanchez + for Parker?

 

if those trades were available, I'd make them instead... depending what the + is.

 

If we got Lincecum... Isn't he negative value right now?? Not sure what is going on with him. He is still pitching (unlike Romero) but not good. I'd want Parker + Lincecum, based on the idea neither is a sure thing and hopefully one gives you what you need (4 WAR) and the other either isn't a terrible negative or is injured or something anyway.

[DuckDuckGose]

I'd rather trade Sanchez + for someone like a Chris Sale, Madison Bumgarner, David Price etc. Wouldn't the Jays just be better to sign Tim Lincecum rather than trade Sanchez + for Parker?

 

Sanchez/Osuna + Nolin/Stroman/Hutchison + Lugo for Price/Sale/Bumgarner way before Sanchez + for Parker.

[G-Snarls]

Sanchez/Osuna + Nolin/Stroman/Hutchison + Lugo for Price/Sale/Bumgarner way before Sanchez + for Parker.

 

Osuna is TJS recovering isn't he? And so young too. I'd think any team would MUCH prefer Sanchez or Stroman.

[Olerud363]

AA has really painted himself in to a corner

 

1. He can't go half assed in to next year (ie. fail to updrade SP and C) or he's doomed for failure and he knows it

 

2. He's (presumably) pushing payroll limits

 

3. He's already traded away half the good prospects and the ones he kept aren't all performing. He can't really afford to trade for a David Price or Chris Sale without losing the bit of quality farm (Sanchez, Stroman especially) he has left.

 

He really has no choice for 2014 but to throw good money after bad and pick up a FA catcher and SP and cross his fingers. If the team fails next year despite that it's time for a total rebuild and a new GM

 

This is why is whole stupid idea of concentrating on starters is stupid.

 

Given Toronto is a slight hitters park, the offense is a tad worse then we think, the pitching a tad better... In terms of where we need to be?? Tampa is at 107 OPS+, 103 ERA+... Oakland 107, 105.

 

Toronto is 99, 96. Both offense and pitching need to be improved. So he has to go all out, unearthing every single rock. If the team has to be weighted one way or the other?? Fine. If somehow he could get Choo, McCann, and a second basemen?? Do it and hope the pitching comes together. If he could get Sale or David Price + Parker and have to find scraps for catcher/2b?? Do that.

 

He can't go into this offseason with any dogma.

[Olerud363]

Sanchez/Osuna + Nolin/Stroman/Hutchison + Lugo for Price/Sale/Bumgarner way before Sanchez + for Parker.

 

Sanchez+Stroman+Lugo for price?? sure. I'd do it if it was available and i was AA. Not if I was new GM hired to fix things**.

 

(**Edited: not unless I could turn Price around for better pieces)

[G-Snarls]

Which would you rather do?

 

A. Keep Rasmus, Stroman and Sanchez and sign Garza or Tanaka (good but not ace caliber starter at ~ 15MM per)

 

B. Trade Rasmus plus one of Stoman or Sanchez plus maybe Janssen for a higher level pitcher (eg. Price, Sale) and sign Choo or Ellsbury as a free agent

 

B makes the team better in 2014 than A does, BUT it costs you a top pitching prospect and costs more $$

[G-Snarls]

Which would you rather do?

 

A. Keep Rasmus, Stroman and Sanchez and sign Garza or Tanaka (good but not ace caliber starter at ~ 15MM per)

 

B. Trade Rasmus plus one of Stoman or Sanchez plus maybe Janssen for a higher level pitcher (eg. Price, Sale) and sign Choo or Ellsbury as a free agent

 

B makes the team better in 2014 than A does, BUT it costs you a top pitching prospect and costs more $$

 

(In either scenario I'm presuming we sign Ruiz or similar)

[DuckDuckGose]

Osuna is TJS recovering isn't he? And so young too. I'd think any team would MUCH prefer Sanchez or Stroman.

 

Yup, that's who I would take too. I've always liked binning guys together and letting them pick. Hopefully they pick the wrong one.

[DuckDuckGose]

Sanchez+Stroman+Lugo for price?? sure. I'd do it if it was available and i was AA. Not if I was new GM hired to fix things**.

 

(**Edited: not unless I could turn Price around for better pieces)

 

Only issue with Price is you're going to have to pay him a lot of money. I'd personally rather just keep the prospects and spend this FA. Go get Choo and McCann and this year's bargain durable mid-rotation guy.