Baseball Prospectus - What scouts are saying about Lawrie

[Dr. Dinger]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/images/headshot_60009.jpg

Blue Jays 3B Brett Lawrie: "His detractors will tell you that his makeup makes him a risk or prone to streakiness, but I think that line of thinking is just caddywhompus. He plays at level 10 with an extra shot of espresso at all times, but he is still under control. He has impressive forearm strength that lets him snap the bat head through the zone, but he does a good job of staying back on balls and driving them the other way, whereas he was just looking to yank everything when he first came up. I think he is among the five best defenders at his position in the game, and he is only going to improve. He is very quick and has more than enough arm strength to make the toughest plays to his right. I am comfortable saying that he is going to be a superstar third baseman, and it's more likely to happen sooner than later."

 

 

Also, he's got a career 110 wRC+ through 247 games now, with 16.3% K rate. Per 162: 20/17, 4.2 WAR.

 

Not bad for a 23 year old.

Edited August 30, 2013 by Dr. Dinger

[P2F]

Appreciate the share.

 

I believe in Lawrie. He may not end up with the power we all thought he might have, but, with that great defense, I'll take whatever he contributes with the bat.

[Atothe]

So what happened to all the f***ing panicking ass fools saying lawrie isn't going to bounce back? Too much talent and a talented hitting coach in Chad Mottola

[Angrioter]

Also, he's got a career 110 wRC+ through 247 games now, with 16.3% K rate. Per 162: 20/17, 4.2 WAR.

 

Not a bad for a 23 year old.

 

Yeah. Lawrie will be a MVP caliber 3B.

Lawrie, Rasmus (extent him AA), Sanchez, and Stroman (Kimbrel?) could be a great core.

[havok24]

Yeah this Lawrie guy is pretty good at baseball.

[jays_fever]

A lot of people have been stating that hes already a league average third basemen, with the potential to be an all star type player. I doubt he becomes a 6 war type player though, probably more in the 4.5-5.5 range

[Errorcebia]

But if he can't stay healthy, none of this really matters...

 

Unfortunately there is a good chance he will be injury prone his whole career.

[DuckDuckGose]

A lot of people have been stating that hes already a league average third basemen, with the potential to be an all star type player. I doubt he becomes a 6 war type player though, probably more in the 4.5-5.5 range

 

If he hits like Beltre he'll be a 5 WAR guy. Lawrie isn't the type of guy I would put a cap on but, that has to be a fairly upper percentile outcome.

[Angrioter]

If he hits like Beltre he'll be a 5 WAR guy. Lawrie isn't the type of guy I would put a cap on but, that has to be a fairly upper percentile outcome.

 

Btw Beltre will be a HOFer

[jays_fever]

If he hits like Beltre he'll be a 5 WAR guy. Lawrie isn't the type of guy I would put a cap on but, that has to be a fairly upper percentile outcome.

 

Beltre is an elite hitter at the 3B position, so I wouldnt even say thats his ceiling. The 5.5 mark is really generous, 4-5 is probably more accurate. He really has to get on base more and use that speed to increase his war Id guess.

[jays_fever]

Btw Beltre will be a HOFer

 

I'll be shocked if he gets even a decent amount of consideration for it. Very good career though

[G-Snarls]

He's definitely starting to win me back as a fan

[TBJ12]

Is there a better defender at 3b in all of baseball?

 

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Lawrie put up a 5+ WAR season as soon as next season.

[jays_fever]

Is there a better defender at 3b in all of baseball?

 

 

Yes.

[TBJ12]

Yes.

 

Who?

[yudarvish]

Who?

 

He plays in Tampa.

[Dr. Dinger]

Beltre, Machado, Longoria

[TBJ12]

He plays in Tampa.

 

I don't agree. He's clearly better offensively but I don't doubt for a second Lawrie's a better defender.

[Laika]

Who?

 

Machado

Longo

Beltre

Lawrie

 

That's in order, with Beltre probably getting some legacy points to be ahead of Lawrie.

[TBJ12]

I understand you guys are probably looking at defensive metrics but, those same defensive metrics said Alomar was a negative defender. I'm not buying it.

[jays_fever]

Holy f*** Mac is at UZR is at 27..

 

Id also add Mike Moose to the the list for better defenders at third base. You cant be a top 3 defender at a position if you dont have a consistent, accurate arm.

[Laika]

I understand you guys are probably looking at defensive metrics but, those same defensive metrics said Alomar was a negative defender. I'm not buying it.

 

If you watched a lot of Rays games you'd be whistling a different tune. Longo might not have the flash that Lawrie or Machado have, but he's so f***ing steady at the corner that it's practically emasculating.

 

I won't crucify you if you want to put Lawrie on their level though. He's a defensive stud, no doubt.

[TBJ12]

I'd put Machado right there with Lawrie, not so sure about Longoria and Beltre though.

[TBJ12]

If you watched a lot of Rays games you'd be whistling a different tune. Longo might not have the flash that Lawrie or Machado have, but he's so f***ing steady at the corner that it's practically emasculating.

 

I won't crucify you if you want to put Lawrie on their level though. He's a defensive stud, no doubt.

 

Anyone remember late last season when Longoria made 3 errors or something in one series against the Jays? Maybe that series alone has swayed my opinion, either way your right, I don't watch enough Rays games to say for certain.

[TBJ12]

Holy f*** Mac is at UZR is at 27..

 

Id also add Mike Moose to the the list for better defenders at third base. You cant be a top 3 defender at a position if you dont have a consistent, accurate arm.

 

Are you saying Lawrie doesn't?

[Boxcar]

Anyone remember late last season when Longoria made 3 errors or something in one series against the Jays? Maybe that series alone has swayed my opinion, either way your right, I don't watch enough Rays games to say for certain.

 

The method of determining defensive value for Alomar is much different and less accurate than what is used now. That being said, I wonder if Alomar suffers from Derek Jeter syndrome. I was only a kid when Robbie played here, so I can't say, but I think a lot of people have it in their minds that he was the best ever and it's sacrilege to even question it.

[Laika]

Anyone remember late last season when Longoria made 3 errors or something in one series against the Jays? Maybe that series alone has swayed my opinion, either way your right, I don't watch enough Rays games to say for certain.

 

I think it was 3 misplays in one game. I remember watching it. It's pretty easy for anecdotal stuff like that to sway our opinions about baseball.

[TBJ12]

The method of determining defensive value for Alomar is much different and less accurate than what is used now. That being said, I wonder if Alomar suffers from Derek Jeter syndrome. I was only a kid when Robbie played here, so I can't say, but I think a lot of people have it in their minds that he was the best ever and it's sacrilege to even question it.

 

Alomar was my hero as a kid so I'd rather not believe that. I'm sure there's enough video on youtube to prove that theory wrong anyway, the man was a stud.

[GD]

Holy f*** Mac is at UZR is at 27..

 

Id also add Mike Moose to the the list for better defenders at third base. You cant be a top 3 defender at a position if you dont have a consistent, accurate arm.

 

I read Mike Moose as Mike Morse for a second and my head nearly exploded.

[TheHurl]

Completely believe in the glove and appreciate how valuable he'll be but just don't believe he'll ever be a consistent bat. He still can't hit anything but fastballs, part of his recent success is changes to the approach and stance, but it's partially that he's getting more fastballs as well.