Olerud363 answers Stoeten answering Griffin's mailbag

[Olerud363]

"This might be one of those pointless ‘what if’ questions (and I’ll get hammered by DJF I’m sure), but I’m curious to get your opinion on what the state and future of the Jays might have been if the Florida and Dickey trades had not been made in the off season. There would have been some tinkering with the lineup of course, but would we have been in a better position going into 2014 if they had never happened? I was really buying into the build for the future concept, but also bought into the trades." Rob Brander - Sydney Australia...

 

Hi Rob - It appears Stoeten did not bash your question but instead took it as a grand opportunity to go into full Rogers apology mode. I'll try to answer it. Sorry for the grammar and spelling and disrespect for Beeston and company. Keep in mind I'm just an insufferable sour puss, not a paid part of the media complex, and am just typing this out quickly in 20 minutes as I eat my breakfast and prepare for a day of work.

 

According to Stoeten the Jays had to go "all in" because of their stellar aging core of Bautista and EE... By the time the prospects develop in 2016 Bautista and EE will be too elderly to contribute. (note. Bautista may allready be too elderly... a great, great player but 33 next year missing 50 games a year).

 

This brings us back to the question of whether Bautista at 32 coming off of an injury and EE at 30 with one great season were really the kind of core players one goes "all in" with. In 1991 the core was really Alomar (23), and White (28) who would amass about 35 WAR over 91-93. Over these years their combined age was 25-27. I love Bautista and EE as hitters... and at their best are a core you'd go "all-in" with. But the reality is that Bautista's best won't even overlap with EEs best.... Do you go all in with a 30-32 year old and a 32-34 year old with huge injury flags??

 

Stoeten cherry picks a few failures (Snider, Drabek) and acts like he can predict the future path of prospects. He also does some sleezy tricks like failing to mention Syndegard in the list of core pitchers because apparently he is to young for a full work load... valid in a way, but disengenious in that Syndegard has just as much chance of providing 150 great innings next year as Morrow does.

 

So without the trades (and lets undo the Happ, Snider, and Thames trades as well.. they were really part of "all-in") the potential starters are Romero, Morrow, Syndegard, Hutch, Drabek, Nicolina, Woj, Stroman, Nolin, Redmond, DeSclafani. That's a very deep group. Young pitchers fail. But if you start with 10 and add in some guys who aren't on the radar yet?? I like the chances.

 

Without the trades there is depth at multiple positions. Escobar/Hech at short, Arencibia/D'arnaud at catcher, Gose/Marisnick/Rasmus in center, Snider/Thames/Pillar. Lawrie. And you still have Bautista/EE who can contribute or be moved for other young pieces.

 

So without the "all-in" the Jays would have tremendous depth. Would this translate into a good team??

 

It's easy to point out that many of these players have weaknesses or can be expected to fail. But (to give him credit) Stoeten rightly points out veterans fail as well. Baseball players both young and veteran often crash, burn and fail.

 

I remember in the late 90s the Jays had 4 good looking young middle infield prospects, Izturus, Lopez, Michael Young, and Aberthny. All were eventually discarded. Only Michael Young had a good run. Anyway when they were prospects no one predicted Young would be the best... The point is that no one, not the scouts, not the numbers guys, knows exactly how these guys will turn out. You need to start with multiple guys, and then have a player development process to develop and sort through them.

 

John Farrell mentioned the other day the Jays lack player development. Player development is often a process of taking many, many, many young players, teaching them, sorting through them and getting a few major leaguers out of the process. With a good player development system and a good base of young players an organization will do well in the long run.

 

So IF the Jays had a good player development process they would of been much, much better without "all-in". But John Farrell argues that the Jays don't have a good player development process. So I suppose in the end, if Farrell is right, the Jays had to go "all-in". If the Jays can't develop players, the only choice is to collect old guys and hope they defy age.

 

Great and complicated question. Best wishes.

Edited August 23, 2013 by Olerud363

[Angrioter]

Great read.

 

Getting talent, develop that talent and maximize their potential should be the main goal of a baseball organization.

[digiblader]

Problem is, you'd likely end up trading some of the prospects if there's no room on the 40-man.. don't forget about the Rule 5 draft.

[GNick]

I think Jays had to go all in last winter...I mean 19 years not even being on outskirts of a pennant race? At some point you have to put your best forward to keep fan interest. However, Anthopoulos made some puzzling moves. Some of his moves were not well thought out. Like Dickey trade or taking on players who failed miserably in similar stint with Miami just a season before.

[digiblader]

True--but ANY team could've been stupid enough to trade for Miami's players and RA Dickey. Remember, other teams were linked to the players, like the Red Sox and Rangers.

 

And we'd be a 100-loss team without those trades.. most of the prospects weren't ready, several pitchers got injured, and Alvarez is an NL pitcher at best (and rather mediocre--he's still struggling to get K's.)

[z3r0s]

The Dickey trade really gutted us but who could of expected the acquisitions to perform so badly?

 

My stomach twisted when I heard we were sending d'Arnaud in the Dickey trade. I was literally in disbelief when the 'and a pitcher' turned into Syndergaard.

 

I legitimately didn't believe it. I figured some Mets writer was just throwing out some Jays pitcher they saw on a prospect list.

[Angrioter]

Nice post as always Olerud363. AA is taking after the Phillies, Braves and Reds: teams that rely on scouting and player development and not analytics. But it only works if you can actually develop the players, and this organization has not shown it can. How can people be making light of the development record? It's unquestionably atrocious.

 

Stoeten pointed to the A's an a team that has few homegrown players. But, Oakland also has a very different approach to team-building in general. They're big into analytics and are good at analytics. We're big into scouting and are bad at scouting.

 

An "all-in" team is 57-71 and is showing no improvement over the previous lost seasons. They're clearly the worst team in the division going forward, and this will be true following four seasons with the current GM at the helm. It's fine to say it's a "five-year plan" but if there's no improvement after the fourth, why not expedite the process and bring somebody new in?

 

The nightmare has just begun; In our recent future, several years of suffering are approaching.

[Angrioter]

If things go well we may contend by 2018 or 2019.

 

AA as commander of the ship? -- maybe 2025

With the theory "trade the talented young players for Tools" we're f***ed.

[digiblader]

Yankees and Orioles have bleaker futures than the Jays--Yankees due to retirements, lack of decent prospects and increasing difficulty plugging holes with free agency.

 

Orioles are bleak due to their lack of decent pitching depth--and their farm is nearly as bad as the Jays(if not worse)--the pitching issues are going to cost Baltimore any hope of a playoff spot.

[digiblader]

Try more like 2014. We just need pitching help to support Buehrle, Dickey, and health from guys like Morrow. Remember, we do hit--we just need a healthy starting rotation.

 

You want a team that won't compete until 2018-2019? Try the Angels..

[Angrioter]

Yankees and Orioles have bleaker futures than the Jays--Yankees due to retirements, lack of decent prospects and increasing difficulty plugging holes with free agency.

 

Orioles are bleak due to their lack of decent pitching depth--and their farm is nearly as bad as the Jays(if not worse)--the pitching issues are going to cost Baltimore any hope of a playoff spot.

 

Yeah, but.................Can the Orioles develop Bundy/Gausman/Harvey or maximize their potential?

We can't develop hitters; the O's can't develop pitchers.

[GNick]

Try more like 2014. We just need pitching help to support Buehrle, Dickey, and health from guys like Morrow. Remember, we do hit--we just need a healthy starting rotation.

 

You want a team that won't compete until 2018-2019? Try the Angels..

 

I have my doubts Jays will contend in 2014. They need too much, a catcher, 2 starting pitchers, 2b and possibly a lf. According to what Cabrera shows up next year. Most of Toronto's roster is injury prone. It would be amazing story if Jays in pennant race next year. AA has so many bad back-loaded contracts and no farm system left to trade for immediate help. I can't see how he can do it.

[Angrioter]

Angels:

Trout, Trumbo, Pujols, Hamilton, Kendrick, Aybar + 3 RLP = Bunch of runs.

CJ Wilson, Weaver, Garza and 2X(4,5 ERA) = Bunch of QS.

Bullpen = A damn good bullpen can find under the stones. You build it with discarded materials.

[digiblader]

True--Gausman still has a ways to go, and he's struggled in AAA. Bundy's not close due to Tommy John surgery. Hunter Harvey is 4 years away at best.

 

Oh, and Johnathon Schoop has bust written all over him--he's been disappointing in AAA this year, and he projects as an average player at best. Baltimore has very few bats that are MLB ready after Manny Machado's graduation.

[digiblader]

Aren't you forgetting Stroman, Nolin, Sanchez, Osuna, Stilson, Jimenez and others?

 

And we have enough OFs in the system that we could probably fill the LF hole from within.

 

Most of the aim should be at 2B, C and SP.

[z3r0s]

True--Gausman still has a ways to go, and he's struggled in AAA. Bundy's not close due to Tommy John surgery. Hunter Harvey is 4 years away at best.

 

Oh, and Johnathon Schoop has bust written all over him--he's been disappointing in AAA this year, and he projects as an average player at best. Baltimore has very few bats that are MLB ready after Manny Machado's graduation.

 

Quite you! Your talking about two of my DDL minor leaguers :'(

[digiblader]

Not happening. Angels are tapped out financially. And the Angels have deeper problems beyond their pitching--Hamilton and Pujols are in decline.

[Angrioter]

Not happening. Angels are tapped out financially. And the Angels have deeper problems beyond their pitching--Hamilton and Pujols are in decline.

 

Hamilton and Pujols decline >> Prime of most in the league (2 or 3 years)

[digiblader]

Regarding the Josh Johnson deal--any team could've been equally screwed on the deal. Boston wanted him, if I remember. Nobody expected he'd get hurt. Good thing he's a free agent.

 

We had to trade Yunel Escobar--remember, he had on-field issues--and Hech hasn't impressed (his dWAR is actually negative). Reyes, had he stayed healthy, would've been very useful for the Jays.

 

Another thing--most of those prospects we traded were not close to the majors, outside of d'Arnaud. Marisinick shouldn't even be in the MLB--the Marlins rushed him.

[digiblader]

Regarding the LF hole--Pillar, despite his ineptness with the bat, has impressed defensively, and has been a major upgrade over Melky Cabrera and Rajai Davis. Remember, Mike Trout had similar problems when he first came up as well with the bat--be patient with Pillar.

 

If he starts hitting, I would consider him to be an everyday LF next season..Anthony Gose could be considered as well.

 

Look, we should focus on 2B, a C and pitching.

[Terminator]

Hey Olerud63, good idea but could I get a little formatting?

[GD]

Great read, Olerud, but like Terminator said, you may be better off bolding what the original quote was and leaving your writing in normal font, it makes it easier to read, like Stoeten does haha. Only difference is what you posted was intelligent

 

If things go well we may contend by 2018 or 2019.

 

I dunno, I see 2016-2017. We have lots of young pieces coming up or even settling in around then (Norris, Barreto, Sanchez, Osuna, etc) and Lawrie should be entering his peak. (This is after Beeston suddenly has a non-fatal heart attack causing him to step down, causing us to hire some wall street guy who realizes AA is dumn, punches him in the face and fires him and replaces him with another wall street guy, and compliment our young pieces with intelligent free agent signings.

 

And then I wake up.)

[SpeedyGose]

My stomach twisted when I heard we were sending d'Arnaud in the Dickey trade. I was literally in disbelief when the 'and a pitcher' turned into Syndergaard.

 

I legitimately didn't believe it. I figured some Mets writer was just throwing out some Jays pitcher they saw on a prospect list.

 

Me too. I was hoping and hoping that the Mets' beat writer was just f***ing up.

[CHRIS]

If things go well we may contend by 2018 or 2019.

 

Just as the JPA extension is winding down.

[Caper]

No one talks about the Yan Gomes trade.

[Angrioter]

No one talks about the Yan Gomes trade.

 

'cause he suck.

[digiblader]

JPA hasn't even hit arb yet..he could just as easily be non-tendered before then.

[P2F]

Me too. I was hoping and hoping that the Mets' beat writer was just f***ing up.

 

I remember it vividly. It was Mike Puma, who broke the news on Twitter (in tidbits). I, along with thousands of others, followed him that day in hopes that he was just pulling ******** out of his ass. Unfortunately, he was right about the pieces going back to the Mets.

 

That was a terrible time, and the worst is yet to come.

[GNick]

Think Riccardi could have played a role in Dickey lopsided trade as he knew Anthopoulos and his weakness?

[Angrioter]

I remember it vividly. It was Mike Puma, who broke the news on Twitter (in tidbits). I, along with thousands of others, followed him that day in hopes that he was just pulling ******** out of his ass. Unfortunately, he was right about the pieces going back to the Mets.

 

That was a terrible time, and the worst is yet to come.

 

Norris bandwagon begun.