The curse of the derby strikes again!

[Arkadium]

Chris Davis now 9 games w/o a HR...... discuss!

[Nox]

The curse of the derby is just a popular narrative of regression to the mean.

[Nox]

Sky Kalkman ‏@Sky_Kalkman26 Jul

The Doubles Derby must of killed his doubles stroke. RT @HardballTalk: Manny Machado stopped hitting doubles http://dlvr.it/3jWTRl

[Deadpool]

Sky Kalkman ‏@Sky_Kalkman26 Jul

The Doubles Derby must of killed his doubles stroke. RT @HardballTalk: Manny Machado stopped hitting doubles http://dlvr.it/3jWTRl

 

Lol at that guy having "published a book" and using the phrase "must of killed".

 

(Sorry, but that's one of those improper phrases that bugs me, like my friend who says "mind as well" instead of "might as well".)

 

Edit: funny comment though.

[Nox]

Lol at that guy having "published a book" and using the phrase "must of killed".

 

(Sorry, but that's one of those improper phrases that bugs me, like my friend who says "mind as well" instead of "might as well".)

 

Edit: funny comment though.

 

Couldn't agree more. That one drives me nuts too. I texted that tweet to a couple of my buddies and put a "despite the horrific use of the english language" qualifier on it.

[GD]

Lol at that guy having "published a book" and using the phrase "must of killed".

 

(Sorry, but that's one of those improper phrases that bugs me, like my friend who says "mind as well" instead of "might as well".)

 

Edit: funny comment though.

 

The fack?

 

I did think it was "for all intensive purposes" for longer than I'd care to admit, to be fair.

[P2F]

The fack?

 

I did think it was "for all intensive purposes" for longer than I'd care to admit, to be fair.

 

"I could care less"

[Arkadium]

People who think the HR Derby has no impact on a hitter don't really understand baseball; consistency, timing, and approach are fundamental... something like a HR Derby can disrupt those things just enough to impact the rest of a players season.

[Nox]

People who think the HR Derby has no impact on a hitter don't really understand baseball; consistency, timing, and approach are fundamental... something like a HR Derby can disrupt those things just enough to impact the rest of a players season.

 

People who think that it does don't understand random variation and haven't watched a big time slugger's last round of BP. It's the same f***ing thing.

[P2F]

People who think the HR Derby has no impact on a hitter don't really understand baseball; consistency, timing, and approach are fundamental... something like a HR Derby can disrupt those things just enough to impact the rest of a players season.

 

wat

[Arkadium]

People who think that it does don't understand random variation and haven't watched a big time slugger's last round of BP. It's the same f***ing thing.

 

You don't understand baseball.

[Fearthedoc]

"I could care less"

 

Agreed. This one drives me crazy.

[Nox]

You don't understand baseball.

 

Have fun on that island.

[GD]

You don't understand baseball.

 

You realize that Nox knows infinitely more than you about pretty much everything, yes?

 

Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk 2

[Arkadium]

Unfortunately you don't know as much as you think you know...

[GD]

Unfortunately you don't know as much as you think you know...

 

I don't, but Nox does, and he's right here.

 

Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk 2

[Arkadium]

I don't, but Nox does, and he's right here.

 

Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk 2

 

He's not right here, and there's a large enough sample size to show it's not just regression to the mean or anything like that.

[TheHurl]

the HR derby retroactively f***ed Cespedes swing as he hasn't hit one since June 21st.

[P2F]

the HR derby retroactively f***ed Cespedes swing as he hasn't hit one since June 21st.

 

Agreed. That pesky derby.

[P2F]

People actually believe this? Are they not aware BP is a thing?

 

BP is all oil drilling and pizza, bro. Batting practise, what?

[Deadpool]

The fack?

 

I did think it was "for all intensive purposes" for longer than I'd care to admit, to be fair.

 

That one bugs me, glad you have repented your sinning ways.

[Olerud363]

The curse of the derby is just a popular narrative of regression to the mean.

 

There is plausability to the theory... homerun contest might physically mess up your wrist...

 

Tricky to test this one. One could use month before homerun contest and month after... but month before home run contest is probably abnormally hot (players who are randomly hot more likely to be in contest).

 

Career stats and career injury rate vs. month after stats and injury rate??

 

Wouldn't work either. Players in homerun contest are more likely in their prime...

 

How about number of swings in homerun contest vs. performance after. 2 matched groups. Similiar performance before but high number of swings and low number of swings. If damage is like high pitch count guys who went deep into contest should be more likely to be damaged.

[Orgfiller]

There is plausability to the theory... homerun contest might physically mess up your wrist...

 

Tricky to test this one. One could use month before homerun contest and month after... but month before home run contest is probably abnormally hot (players who are randomly hot more likely to be in contest).

 

Career stats and career injury rate vs. month after stats and injury rate??

 

Wouldn't work either. Players in homerun contest are more likely in their prime...

 

How about number of swings in homerun contest vs. performance after. 2 matched groups. Similiar performance before but high number of swings and low number of swings. If damage is like high pitch count guys who went deep should be more likely to be damaged.

 

Stopped reading after that. It is common knowledge by everyone in baseball that the last swings of BP is players attempting to hit long balls. A wrist injury doesn't just happen the one time because the player "was swinging too hard" seeing as every BP before the game the players also attempt to hit bombs just for fun. I'm sure Stanton doesn't practice his bunting a few times before the game starts.

[o2cui2i]

There is plausability to the theory... homerun contest might physically mess up your wrist...

 

Tricky to test this one. One could use month before homerun contest and month after... but month before home run contest is probably abnormally hot (players who are randomly hot more likely to be in contest).

 

Career stats and career injury rate vs. month after stats and injury rate??

 

Wouldn't work either. Players in homerun contest are more likely in their prime...

 

How about number of swings in homerun contest vs. performance after. 2 matched groups. Similiar performance before but high number of swings and low number of swings. If damage is like high pitch count guys who went deep into contest should be more likely to be damaged.

 

I think the beer drinking, partying and extra travel do more damage than the derby. just sayin..

[Olerud363]

Stopped reading after that. It is common knowledge by everyone in baseball that the last swings of BP is players attempting to hit long balls. A wrist injury doesn't just happen the one time because the player "was swinging too hard" seeing as every BP before the game the players also attempt to hit bombs just for fun. I'm sure Stanton doesn't practice his bunting a few times before the game starts.

 

The plausability is in the fact the guys are taking as many as 50 hard swings. You don't hit 30 bombs in batting practice.

 

To test the theory I mentioned that you should look at two groups. One group made of guys who made it deep into the contest so took 40 or 50 swings... the other group made of guys who were eliminated early and took only a few swings.

[Orgfiller]

The plausability is in the fact the guys are taking as many as 50 hard swings. You don't hit 30 bombs in batting practice.

 

To test the theory I mentioned that you should look at two groups. One group made of guys who made it deep into the contest so took 40 or 50 swings... the other group made of guys who were eliminated early and took only a few swings.

 

Bautista injured his wrist last year and he made a pretty poor showing, it wasn't because of the Derby, he always takes swings like that. And again, they many not all be HR swings but players do BP every day, and the last round of BP is usually a HR contest, then you couple that with the swings the players might take in games and that in itself takes a toll on the players' wrist throughout their whole career, not just the one time that they appear in the HR Derby.

[Nox]

There is plausability to the theory... homerun contest might physically mess up your wrist...

 

Tricky to test this one. One could use month before homerun contest and month after... but month before home run contest is probably abnormally hot (players who are randomly hot more likely to be in contest).

 

Career stats and career injury rate vs. month after stats and injury rate??

 

Wouldn't work either. Players in homerun contest are more likely in their prime...

 

How about number of swings in homerun contest vs. performance after. 2 matched groups. Similiar performance before but high number of swings and low number of swings. If damage is like high pitch count guys who went deep into contest should be more likely to be damaged.

 

There's just no measurable effect. It's complete hogwash.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/another-look-at-the-home-run-derby-hangover-effect/

 

There's an even better look somewhere on bpro that I'm trying to track down. Regardless, there's absolutely nothing to see here.

[Olerud363]

People actually believe this? Are they not aware BP is a thing?

 

People actually believe that pitchers can get injured if their overworked... or become less effective.

 

I don't believe that it disrupts their timing or any of that... It seems feasible that it could cause an injury, the workload is higher then batting average.

[Olerud363]

There's just no measurable effect. It's complete hogwash.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/another-look-at-the-home-run-derby-hangover-effect/

 

There's an even better look somewhere on bpro that I'm trying to track down. Regardless, there's absolutely nothing to see here.

 

I agree 100% that it does not reduce performance because of "timing" or some hogwash. I agree 100% that in theory it is similar to batting practice. I think the workload for someone who goes far in the contest is higher then batting practice. Some injuries (especially pitching) are thought to be workload dependent.

 

I am still not convinced that it is safe. I think you mentioned Nicholas Taleb on another post?? Before reactors get hit by a Tsunami we think they are safe through anything. The test is not what you think but what you'd do. The test is would you of put Bautista back in it in 2013?? Would you of put EE in it??

 

If both you think it's safe, if EE but not Bautista you think it could be dangerous for susceptible hitters. If neither you think it's dangerous.

 

Unless you become a GM or other high position in baseball operations, I will never know what you'd really do because you're not in charge of these players.

 

It seems to me AA doesn't quite think it's perfectly safe. But many of us think AA is an idiot... so does his opinion sway us??

[gruber92]

The plausability is in the fact the guys are taking as many as 50 hard swings. You don't hit 30 bombs in batting practice.

 

To test the theory I mentioned that you should look at two groups. One group made of guys who made it deep into the contest so took 40 or 50 swings... the other group made of guys who were eliminated early and took only a few swings.

 

IMO, this about sums up the HR Derby curse in a nutshell. When routine is broken up this drastically, it can create an inconsistency in his performance. The lay off itself can also factor in.

 

IQUOTE]