Can Dickey Blame the Offense Again?

[Nox]

I don't think anyone in the Blue Jays' FO besides maaaaaaybe Dan Evans know how to use a calculator, but I can imagine how that would go.

 

Dan Evans: Shouldn't we at least consider that his uptick in K% and O-Swing% may be unsustaina-

 

Beeston: Were those... stats?

 

Anthoupolos: What the f***? You're fired.

 

I'm guessing Dan Evans' primary role in that front office is to show AA how to print out his emails.

[crrr]

Based on that, ~$45M in surplus.

 

But keep in mind that that's using $5M/WAR which is pretty outdated.

 

Using something more up to date (but still very conservative) like $8M/WAR we're talking about something north of $60M in value.

 

No matter where we were on the win curve coming into the year justifies that sort of investment for 1 year of RA Dickey.

 

 

 

That works both ways though. Dickey has been s***** this year and has actually provided negative value.

 

Well he's at 0.6 war, if you increase that discount rate the value becomes much closer...

[crrr]

especially if you reduce the time horizon to 3, as it probably discounts very quickly...

 

Also, I'm not sure the evaluation for them was money based, so you have to keep in mind too. They wanted major leaguers now...

[GD]

But keep in mind that that's using $5M/WAR which is pretty outdated.

 

Using something more up to date (but still very conservative) like $8M/WAR we're talking about something north of $60M in value.

 

I've been wondering about this for a while, why's $8M better than $5? I think I read somewhere that this past winter, GMs payed about $4.75M/war.

 

I'm guessing Dan Evans' primary role in that front office is to show AA how to print out his emails.

 

I feel bad for the guy. He's a smart person, I think the one person who advocated the BP visit, and he's probably stuck telling Anthopoulos that control + alt + delete and kicking your computer isn't a good way to unfreeze it.

[Nox]

Well he's at 0.6 war, if you increase that discount rate the value becomes much closer...

 

So he is. That'll teach me for trusting NJH.

 

Though, Tango himself (the creator of FIP) has said it probably doesn't apply for knuckle ballers. And that's what the Fangraphs value is based on.

 

Buuuut I guess his RA9 WAR is around there too. So yah. Eff you njh.

 

Yah, we can increase the discount rate but it's going to take a pretty big adjustment to make up the gap. It's also a pretty good initial stab at it from other work I've seen. The biggest surplus from prospects come from their prearb years where the discount rate isn't as punitive.

[Nox]

I've been wondering about this for a while, why's $8M better than $5? I think I read somewhere that this past winter, GMs payed about $4.75M/war.

 

Last real study on this I've seen was in the Hardball Times Annual pre 2012 by Matt Swartz. It was north of $8M/WAR then. I recreated the study midseason last year and got something within $100K/WAR.

 

Shapiro said they had it projected to be $9M/WAR for this past offseason.

 

I can assure you that whoever came up with $4.75M did something wrong. The market didn't crash by 50%.

[GD]

Last real study on this I've seen was in the Hardball Times Annual pre 2012 by Matt Swartz. It was north of $8M/WAR then. I recreated the study midseason last year and got something within $100K/WAR.

 

Shapiro said they had it projected to be $9M/WAR for this past offseason.

 

I can assure you that whoever came up with $4.75M did something wrong. The market didn't crash by 50%.

 

... okay, I went back and saw that and the person who did that was Greenwood, I think. Now seems like a good time to burn my computer and delete my account.

[Nox]

... okay, I went back and saw that and the person who did that was Greenwood, I think. Now seems like a good time to burn my computer and delete my account.

 

Unfortunately I see this as the only course of action.

[GD]

Unfortunately I see this as the only course of action.

 

I went ahead and reported myself.

[mitchf]

Nox can you be our GM please?

 

Join the movement people!

[GD]

Nox can you be our GM please?

 

Join the movement people!

 

#NoxforGM #Top10GM

[GD]

I think this board would make a solid front office.

 

Nox - GM

JFaS - assistant GM

BTS - head maker of coffee

Kirksaw - Scout

 

 

 

Dogg - Reader of fanmail

[mitchf]

Supported.

 

Nox: I make a mean coffee. Keep this in mind.

Unfortunately Nox will have the luxury of keeping around a lot of great coffee makers if he does get the job.

[GD]

Unfortunately Nox will have the luxury of keeping around a lot of great coffee makers if he does get the job.

 

BTS' coffees are worth 10 fWAR.

[mitchf]

I think this board would make a solid front office.

 

Nox - GM

JFaS - assistant GM

BTS - head maker of coffee

Kirksaw - Scout

 

 

 

Dogg - Reader of fanmail

I want NJH as manager and Greenwood can play the role of Arencibia.

[GD]

I want NJH as manager and Greenwood can play the role of Arencibia.

 

Greenwood likes the hit tool too much. Greenwood is obviously Kawasaki minus the awesomeness.

[Nox]

Guys, I appreciate the support but I've created a new fantasy baseball league/format this year that I'm pretty into. Between that, my fear of other humans and desire to stay indoors at all times, it'll be a tough fit scheduling/logistics wise.

[Nox]

Time to come clean: I haven't had a coffee in about 5 years and probably make a terrible coffee. I don't know why I lied

 

This noble admission was noted.

[mitchf]

Time to come clean: I haven't had a coffee in about 5 years and probably make a terrible coffee. I don't know why I lied

Against all odds?

 

I quit after my freshman year, but once I got into the office scene there was no way I could pass up the coffee machines that always have a full pot.

[GD]

I'm just weird. I can get three hours sleep and still get a full day's work done and then play softball/soccer after without feeling tired. I'll probably die before hitting 50.

 

What's the longest you've gone without sleep?

[Nox]

Your ability to work 21 hours a day is also an asset.

 

So is your early death.

 

You just made analyst!!

[mitchf]

I'm just weird. I can get three hours sleep and still get a full day's work done and then play softball/soccer after without feeling tired. I'll probably die before hitting 50.

See I can do this, but I'll need to fit in a coffee before work and before hockey. f*** softball/soccer, lol.

[mitchf]

You don't play softball? I kind of assume pretty much every regular here plays softball.

I played t-ball and baseball right up through grade 12. Then never played baseball again aside from a few games we'd play on our own.

[GD]

You don't play softball? I kind of assume pretty much every regular here plays softball.

 

I tried out for my school team but a bunch of AAA players made it ahead of me.

[Nox]

You don't play softball? I kind of assume pretty much every regular here plays softball.

 

Softball is excellent. Having beers while hitting line drives at girls...what's better? Somebody tell me what's better!!

[havok24]

I never played anything serious, but I always play in at least one league of the type that its fairly common to man the OF beer in hand.

 

Yep. Got to love it.

[Nox]

I never played anything serious, but I always play in at least one league of the type that its fairly common to man the OF beer in hand.

 

"Serious" softball is right up there with male ringette in terms of lamest things in the sporting universe.

[GD]

"Serious" softball is right up there with male ringette in terms of lamest things in the sporting universe.

 

Women's olympics aside, is there such thing as serious softball?

[Nox]

Women's olympics aside, is there such thing as serious softball?

 

I assure you there is. All mens teams that wear sliding shorts and give signals.

 

I wish I was making this up.

[GD]

I assure you there is. All mens teams that wear sliding shorts and give signals.

 

I wish I was making this up.

 

That can't be real. What the f***?