MiLB Recap, May 19

[GD]

I know the numbers wont carry

 

Just for the shits in giggles.... (if there's anything wrong with my math I'd love to know because I've never done this)

 

http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/36-Call-ups-coming-soon?p=4226#post4226

 

Using that formula, regressing Jim Negrych to a .300 BABIP...

 

.300 * (123 - 16 - 3 + 1) + 1

 

... gets him 32.5 hits. Rounding up gets him 33 hits. That's a .234 BA in AAA.

 

Now, running those 33 hits in those 123 ABs in this minor league equivalency calculator (hyper linked) gets you a whopping .200 batting average, on the dot. It also gets you a .264 OBP when adding in his walks, which is hardly call up worthy.

 

But you know the saddest part? The .264 OBP Negrych would probably be getting?

 

IT'S 19 POINTS HIGHER THAN J.P. ARENCIBIA'S OBP.

[o2cui2i]

Yep having depth that you will actually use/callup creates a atmosphere of competitiveness and noone ever feels there job is safe and thats a good thing.

 

hard when the GM comes out and publicly says that Bonifacio is a great player. bet AA is wishing he has kept his mouth shut on that one.

[John_Havok]

Does he have a chance to make it? Or is he a complete bust?

 

5th year pro, 3rd straight at Current level. Still just 21 but pretty much busted

[o2cui2i]

Just for the shits in giggles.... (if there's anything wrong with my math I'd love to know because I've never done this)

 

http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/36-Call-ups-coming-soon?p=4226#post4226

 

Using that formula, regressing Jim Negrych to a .300 BABIP...

 

.300 * (123 - 16 - 3 + 1) + 1

 

... gets him 32.5 hits. Rounding up gets him 33 hits. That's a .234 BA in AAA.

 

Now, running those 33 hits in those 123 ABs in this minor league equivalency calculator (hyper linked) gets you a whopping .200 batting average, on the dot. It also gets you a .264 OBP when adding in his walks, which is hardly call up worthy.

 

But you know the saddest part? The .264 OBP Negrych would probably be getting?

 

IT'S 19 POINTS HIGHER THAN J.P. ARENCIBIA'S OBP.

 

 

blanco .172

Boni .224

Izturis .242

JPA .245

Lawrie - .256

 

Negrych would be a powerhouse at .264.

[Angrioter]

the team has a lot of young arms in the system, just not quite ready yet. Beginning next year there should be a lot of pitching.

 

A

Sanchez

 

B+

Osuna

Stroman

 

B

Tirado

Nolin

Smoral

 

C

Norris

Stilson

Cardona

Cole

McGuire

[GD]

Negrych would be a powerhouse at .264.

 

Well that's just depressing.

 

Nothing wrong with my math, though?

[Caper]

A

Sanchez

 

B+

Osuna

Stroman

 

B

Tirado

Nolin

Smoral

 

C

Norris

Stilson

Cardona

Cole

McGuire

 

I was including Drew Dutchison, Kyle Drabek and Luis Perez in there as well. Drabek might have a hard time meeting his potential, but he's more of a wild card.

[o2cui2i]

asking the wrong guy about the math. lol I'm sure yours is better than mine. my geometry is not going to be very relative. so the millwright will let the mathletes do the work on stats. I understand the results, but dont have the patience to work them out.

[Tuco]

I was including Drew Dutchison, Kyle Drabek and Luis Perez in there as well. Drabek might have a hard time meeting his potential, but he's more of a wild card.

 

I've heard that Drew Dutchison guy is really good

[Angrioter]

I was including Drew Dutchison, Kyle Drabek and Luis Perez in there as well. Drabek might have a hard time meeting his potential, but he's more of a wild card.

 

Drabek can't throw strikes and 2 x TJS

Hutchison was legit before TJS

Perez is reliever and relievers are not the big deal, this year you're a God and the next you're s***.

[o2cui2i]

Drabek can't throw strikes and 2 x TJS

Hutchison was legit before TJS

Perez is reliever and relievers are not the big deal, this year you're a God and the next you're s***.

 

I really hope Drabek can find the strike zone.

[Angrioter]

btw

 

Rasmus with Jose Reyes barber, Dominican barber

http://instagram.com/p/Zg7aanoy4i/

[Deadpool]

I really hope Drabek can find the strike zone.

 

Hitler likes Drabek, so take that for what it's worth...

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xz5HB_Nd84c

[o2cui2i]

btw

 

Rasmus with Jose Reyes barber, Dominican barber

http://instagram.com/p/Zg7aanoy4i/

 

so instead of the Fabio look he's going for Vanilla Ice?

[theblujay]

btw

 

Rasmus with Jose Reyes barber, Dominican barber

http://instagram.com/p/Zg7aanoy4i/

 

Hahaha

[ElNik2013]

btw

 

Rasmus with Jose Reyes barber, Dominican barber

http://instagram.com/p/Zg7aanoy4i/

 

 

 

Should've taken him to his batting coach

[KSaw]

Just for the shits in giggles.... (if there's anything wrong with my math I'd love to know because I've never done this)

 

http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/36-Call-ups-coming-soon?p=4226#post4226

 

Using that formula, regressing Jim Negrych to a .300 BABIP...

 

.300 * (123 - 16 - 3 + 1) + 1

 

... gets him 32.5 hits. Rounding up gets him 33 hits. That's a .234 BA in AAA.

 

Now, running those 33 hits in those 123 ABs in this minor league equivalency calculator (hyper linked) gets you a whopping .200 batting average, on the dot. It also gets you a .264 OBP when adding in his walks, which is hardly call up worthy.

 

But you know the saddest part? The .264 OBP Negrych would probably be getting?

 

IT'S 19 POINTS HIGHER THAN J.P. ARENCIBIA'S OBP.

 

Honestly, if I had to guess Negrych numbers at the MLB level (as an everyday starter) for an average season, I'd really figure .285/.335 with 30-35 doubles and 8-10 HR. His hit skill and eye at the plate translates. The thing with him is that he has little range, average to slightly below average hands and a slightly above average arm and way below average foot speed for a middle infielder. He can hit and walk, he just can't play plus defense and that has always kept his ceiling low.

 

Consider that he is a below average defender, whom isn't fast and who won't hit 20 HR. He is still a prototypical 2-hitter and is far better than Bonifacio.

[GD]

Honestly, if I had to guess Negrych numbers at the MLB level (as an everyday starter) for an average season, I'd really figure .285/.335 with 30-35 doubles and 8-10 HR.

 

Why would you figure that when I just demonstrated the opposite?

 

And Jim Negrych in the two hole would give me a heart attack.

[Caper]

Why would you figure that when I just demonstrated the opposite?

 

And Jim Negrych in the two hole would give me a heart attack.

 

 

 

... yes you clearly demonstrated the opposite...... Lets take Jim Negrych.... subtract almost all his hits and then lets subtract some more of his hits..... and we will call him a .196/.225 hitter...... that was a great analysis.

[GD]

... yes you clearly demonstrated the opposite...... Lets take Jim Negrych.... subtract almost all his hits and then lets subtract some more of his hits..... and we will call him a .196/.225 hitter...... that was a great analysis.

 

Just because you don't understand math doesn't mean it isn't correct, lol.

[KSaw]

Why would you figure that when I just demonstrated the opposite?

 

And Jim Negrych in the two hole would give me a heart attack.

 

Until or unless he hits at the MLB level, the thought could cause heart attacks. I was describing the type of hitter he is. I wasn't suggesting a spot in a batting order.

[KSaw]

Because a .300 BABIP for a contact hitter who often hits balls 10-15 feet over infielders or into gaps generally doesn't hit into many outs would be low. What's his FB rate? What's his career FB rate?

[GD]

Until or unless he hits at the MLB level, the thought could cause heart attacks. I was describing the type of hitter he is. I wasn't suggesting a spot in a batting order.

 

Your answer shall be found here http://minorleaguecentral.com/player?pid=502145

 

Great site, minor league central. Like the Fangraphs of the minors.

 

Because a .300 BABIP for a contact hitter who often hits balls 10-15 feet over infielders or into gaps generally doesn't hit into many outs would be low. What's his FB rate? What's his career FB rate?

 

Assuming it's low, even if you regress it to a .330 BABIP he's still a s*** hitter. I'd rather him over Blanco but he can't catch obviously lol.

[KSaw]

All styles of hitters are not created equal. Get a guy with tools and a quick bat and strength and you get really nice and powerful swings. You get a high ceiling and a shot at all-star production. But there is mystery. There is a decent chance at feast or famine. With a guy like Negrych, there isn't much mystery. You don't get the high ceiling but you don't often get much fall off at any level.

 

He's up there going with pitches that are hittable and laying off bad pitches. He doesn't crush mistakes but his approach doesn't set him up to do so anyway. He's the guy picking up the chubby girl in the bar at last call. He doesn't land the solid 9 but he doesn't often go home alone.

[KSaw]

End of the day, it doesn't make sense to expect that he'd be a s*** hitter considering that he was drafted as a hit skill player and has demonstrated through each pro season that he is exactly as advertised. His athletic and defensive limitations have held him back. Not his bat.