Blue Jays prospects: Sleeper, bust and new legit guy

[Angrioter]

Angrioter

 

New legit guy:

Tirado

DJ Davis

Lopez

Stroman

 

Sleeper:

Pillar

 

Bust:

Jake Anderson

_________________________________

 

Frag

 

New legit guy: Davis, Lopes, Stroman

 

Sleeper: Andrew Burns, Santiago Nessy

 

"Bust": Deck McGuire

 

_______________________

 

 

Lipchitz

 

New legit guy: Smoral

 

Sleeper: Nessy

 

Bust: Deck

_____________________

 

herps

 

Sleeper: Burns is a sleeper, he doesn't get mentioned much. Nessy is just a prospect.

[mitchf]

You mean our first round picks haven't flopped out after a one year? There's no way..

[Anemic0ffense]

Deck looked like he could at least be an innings eater/#4 type... Man what a bust that pick was... Terrible job by Anflopolous

[GD]

If this is the point of the thread...

 

----------

 

GordieDougie

 

New legit guy: Nolin, Tirado, Smoral, Stroman

 

Sleeper: Pompey, Lopes, Anderson, Burns

 

Bust: Thon Jr., Murphy, Sweeney, McGuire, Knecht, Hawkins

[Angrioter]

If this is the point of the thread...

 

----------

 

GordieDougie

 

New legit guy: Nolin, Tirado, Smoral, Stroman

 

Sleeper: Pompey, Lopes, Anderson, Burns

 

Bust: Thon Jr., Murphy, Sweeney, McGuire, Knecht, Hawkins

 

This post was created April 20th 2013

[Angrioter]

Angrioter

 

New legit guy:

Tirado

DJ Davis

Lopez

Stroman

 

Sleeper:

Pillar

 

Bust:

Jake Anderson

_________________________________

 

Frag

 

New legit guy: Davis, Lopes, Stroman

 

Sleeper: Andrew Burns, Santiago Nessy

 

"Bust": Deck McGuire

 

_______________________

 

 

Lipchitz

 

New legit guy: Smoral

 

Sleeper: Nessy

 

Bust: Deck

_____________________

 

herps

 

Sleeper: Burns is a sleeper, he doesn't get mentioned much. Nessy is just a prospect.

 

update

[Dr. Dinger]

Deck was a bust last year, it's kinda hard to keep piling on. Apparently, the Jays put a 1 on him (on the 2-8 scale), ie org guy. Could have had Taijuan Walker (among numerous other legit prospects).

[GD]

Deck was a bust last year, it's kinda hard to keep piling on. Apparently, the Jays put a 1 on him (on the 2-8 scale), ie org guy. Could have had Taijuan Walker (among numerous other legit prospects).

 

Yasmani Grandal, Chris Sale, Kaleb Cowart, Mike Foltynewicz, Christian Yelich, Gary Brown, Zach Cox, Jesse Biddle, Zach Lee, Nick Castallenos, Mike Olt okay I'm gonna stop typing now because this is saddening.

Edited August 21, 2013 by GD

[Frag]

I guess Deck McGuire shows us why you shouldn't draft pitchers with average stuff that high in the first round for reasons like "most likely to reach majors" and whatnot.

[ace3113]

New legit guy:

Mitch Nay

Franklin Barreto

Daniel Norris

 

Sleeper:

Zak Wazilewski

Matt Boyd

Shane Opitz

 

Bust:

Jacob Anderson

Tyler Gonzalez

[Angrioter]

I guess Deck McGuire shows us why you shouldn't draft pitchers with average stuff that high in the first round for reasons like "most likely to reach majors" and whatnot.

 

Yeah. Beede and Bickford were perfect picks.

[GD]

If this is the point of the thread...

 

----------

 

GordieDougie

 

New legit guy: Nolin, Tirado, Smoral, Stroman, Hollon

 

Sleeper: Pompey, Lopes, Anderson, Burns

 

Bust: Thon Jr., Murphy, Sweeney, McGuire, Knecht, Hawkins

 

Update:

 

New legit guy: Barreto, Norris, Tellez, Nay, Nolin

 

Sleeper: Dermody, Boyd, Brentz, Burns

 

Bust: Same as before, no one new

Edited August 21, 2013 by GD

[GD]

If there's a "future stud" category, Kal-El is my pick

[KingKat]

Seems like you shouldn't draft anyone without first-division upside in the first round. A lot of the time I see the term "safe" applied to players with lesser ceilings, which confuses me. What's safe about taking a prospect with inferior tools?

 

High-upside players are safer in that they can be a relative bust and still contribute at the MLB level. Some guys who project as front-line starters end up as #4 starters, and that's okay. But a lot of prospects who project as #4 starters end up topping out in AAA and never make any impact.

 

There's a strange logic that seems to equate low ceiling with high floor. Ricciardi in particular seems to specialize in the so-called safe picks that turned into low ceiling busts during his tenure (Adams, Purcey, Cooper, etc.). The fact that Rogers was being cheap kind of limited him to those kinds of pick but there was a belief that the cheap approach would provide value beyond the investment which it did a few times (Hill, Romero, Marcum, Litsch, Cecil) but not nearly often enough to justify all the high upside picks that were left on the table. The low ceiling approach was a bust overall.

 

At least on that point, AA is better than Ricciard. He gets that you should draft for ceiling although he often seems to draw way too much of an equivalency between athleticisim and ceiling.

[KingKat]

New legit guy:

Stroman (sure he was an early pick but he was also a signability guys too so there was reason to be skeptical. Results in AA do a lot to legitimize a prospect.)

Burns (really nice breakout in high A, best middle infield prospect at the moment although there could be a wave of them on the way)

 

Sleeper:

Deiferson Barreto (A guy with only two years in the Dominican Summer League on his résumé shouldn't be considered more than a deep sleeper but the dramatic improvement in walk rate is worthy of attention).

Michael De La Cruz (Another guy who spent most of the summer in the Dominican. He's 20 though and has looked awful so far in Rookie League so he may bust just as quickly as he broke out).

Emilio Guerrero (Raw infielders are a bit of a specialty for this club. Defense is questionable but it's been a nice offensive breakout)

Shane Dawson (Took a big step forward this year, looks great.)

 

Bust:

There were definitely dissapointments (slow progress for Sanchez, lost season for Osuna) but I don't know that anyone played himself out of prospect status this year. Dissapointments in the low minors are probably too early to dismiss but and there wasn't that much in the high minors. Deck didn't do worse than expected.

[DuckDuckGose]

Deck was a bust last year, it's kinda hard to keep piling on. Apparently, the Jays put a 1 on him (on the 2-8 scale), ie org guy. Could have had Taijuan Walker (among numerous other legit prospects).

 

It wasn't hard to pick Deck as the bust. He was still in the organizational depth chart in April which is why I included him. Basically saying count him out even though the org still hadhope. I'm thinking time is running out for Deck, even with the Jays FO, though.

[DuckDuckGose]

update

 

Thanks for the update Ang. I'd like to revisit this at the end of the MiLB season as well.

 

Hopefully the board has blog style posts, in which a member can do some in depth recaps of the whole system, by then.

[GD]

Thanks for the update Ang. I'd like to revisit this at the end of the MiLB season as well.

 

Hopefully the board has blog style posts, in which a member can do some in depth recaps of the whole system, by then.

 

I would be down to doing one of those, I'm not a terrible writer.

[GD]

I was going to make an organizational depth chart for the top row (by position), but then players started being promoted and demoted and I don't even know where to start to fix it. I also wasn't sure how to make it look good rather than just text

 

I can make a Fangraphs custom report?

[GD]

That sounds good

 

Oh god this is going to take forever lol

[GD]

Easy, open a tab for each teams roster page (BUF, NH, DUN, LAN, VAN, BLU, GCL, DSL)

 

And start with Buffalo and rank each player by position they play

 

Oh, I included the MLB team too lol.

 

It's literally writing down every name of player in the org and then doing some magic with HTML or something. I'll have it done in a while. This is where SQL would come in handy

[GD]

Example

 

Catcher:

J.P. Arencibia (TOR-MLB)

Josh Thole (TOR-MLB)

A.J. Jimenez (BUF-AAA)

Mike Nickeas (BUF-AAA)

Jack Murphy (NH-AA)

Pierce Rankin (NH-AA)

 

1B:

Edwin Encarnacion (TOR-MLB)

Adam Lind (TOR-MLB)

Mauro Gomez (BUF-AAA)

Luis Jimenez (BUF-AAA)

Gabe Jacobo (NH-AA)

Jon Talley (NH-AA)

 

Don't worry, you'll be able to sort by position, statistics, etc.

[Angrioter]

1 Aaron Sanchez

2 Roberto Osuna

3 Marcus Stroman

4 AJ Jimenez

5 Daniel Norris

6 DJ Davis

7 Matt Smoral

8 Phil Bickford

9 Sean Nolin

10 Alberto Tirado

11 Anthony Alford

12 Adonys Cardona

13 Christian Lopes

14 Andy Burns

15 Kevin Pillar

16 John Stilson

17 Chase Dejong

18 Clinton Hollon

19 Franklin Barreto

20 Santiago Nessy

21 Dwight Smith Jr.

22 Mitch Nay

23 Dalton Pompey

24 Dawel Lugo

25 Deck McGuire

26 Jeremy Gabryszwski

27 Andres De Aza

28 Jacob Anderson

29 Danny Barnes

30 Chris Hawkins

 

Only Jonathan Mayo can make a worst top-30 prospect list than bluejaysmessageboard.com

A bunch of idiots sabermetric who evaluate prospects using Baseball reference website

[Angrioter]

Is Nessy borderline bust/very fringe prospect?

 

Just a guy, nothing special.

[GD]

Is Nessy borderline bust/very fringe prospect?

 

He's alright. Some nice power. Not horrifying defensively. Kinda JPA-ish, so expect him to be up with the big club as soon as AA realizes who he is.

[GD]

Guys, I need help with the fangraphs custom report.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-sites-most-underrated-feature-custom-leaderboards/

The easiest way to get the FanGraphs player id for a large list of players is to use our Player Linker tool. From there, you can either type (or copy, if you already have the names in some other document/website) the players into the linker, hit link players now, and the page will reload with hyperlinks for each player. A hyperlinked player string looks like this:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1011327&position=OF

 

If you take that line and dump it into excel, you can use the parsing features of the spreadsheet to isolate everything to the right of the equal sign and to the left of the & sign in its own box, and those numbers (or letters and numbers, if it’s a minor league player) are the fangraphs player id. Now, you can just take that number and add it to the end of URL of your custom leaderboard, which will look like this:

 

(reallylongurlbeginning)=0&filter=&players=1906,3731

 

Just separate the player ids by comma (you can do this in excel too), paste them onto the end, and hit enter. You’ll have a full list of whatever players you wanted to have on a custom player list without having to add them individually.

 

I have no f***ing clue how to do that, I have all the players copied down but I'm stuck.

[DuckDuckGose]

I would be down to doing one of those, I'm not a terrible writer.

 

I think you'd do an excellent job, might take a few people to get it done in a reasonable time period.

[DuckDuckGose]

I was going to make an organizational depth chart for the top row (by position), but then players started being promoted and demoted and I don't even know where to start to fix it. I also wasn't sure how to make it look good rather than just text

 

This site would probably be a useful resource;

 

http://www.mlbdepthcharts.com/2012/10/toronto-blue-jays-2012-13-offseason.html#.UhVofJLVB52

[GD]

I think you'd do an excellent job, might take a few people to get it done in a reasonable time period.

 

We could have one poster do each level, and then have a round table at the end.

[DuckDuckGose]

Guys, I need help with the fangraphs custom report.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-sites-most-underrated-feature-custom-leaderboards/

 

 

I have no f***ing clue how to do that, I have all the players copied down but I'm stuck.

 

I add all the players individually for my leaderboards and then export the data to excel.