2013 draft

[Angrioter]

Frazier going not past Red Sox goes without saying. And I think Meadows>Mcguire in prospect terms.

 

What is up with diminishing the argument of McGuire is really a defensive catcher. Haven't heard that line in a while.

 

Kurt Suzuki Vs Grady Sizemore

[StevieRay]

Haven't heard much regarding trading for those competitive picks. Wondering what value GM's place on those. Have to think they are approximately equivalent to compensatory picks, would it mean a minor league (Sanchez, Norris) worthy of a compensatory pick being traded? That seems to be a lot to offer.

[ace3113]

I'm still hoping one of Frazier or Meadows falls to us, but short of that some of you guys might want to stay clear of any sharp and pointy instruments tomorrow night.

 

Kiley McDaniel ‏@kileymcd 3m

Sounding like Ball is the guy at 10 RT @TheReal_BMA Interesting. Fair to say the Jays will get one of McGuire or Ball?

[Abomination]

It would be nice if Ball could both hit and pitch in the minor leagues. I don't understand why we don't ever see this when it happens in High School and College all the time.

 

If we take Ball, then I hope we do that. I'd rather we didn't take him though.

[TheHurl]

I can't believe that the draft is 7:00 start. I turned down golfing with a beautiful lady on Thursday.

[theblujay]

Omfg please don't be Ball...he's the only one I want less than McGuire.

[TheHurl]

High schoolers made sense when the farm was looking good, we had lots of picks and money to spend. Now it might make more sense to look for a college bat who is closer to ready. However, the two best bats are looking like they will be gone and DJP while I love his swing, the questions of whether he is more of a product of the stadium leaves enough questions to not take him at 10. So I would take the most advanced of the high school bats...which is Frazier from everything I've read. I do really believe that Meadows is our pick though.

[ace3113]

Not sure if it's been posted but here's our slot bonus break down.

 

Round--Overall--Bonus

1---------10------$2,921,400

2---------47------$1,168,200

3---------83------$650,800

4---------115-----$446,100

5---------145-----$334,000

6---------175-----$250,100

7---------205-----$187,400

8---------235-----$156,900

9---------265-----$146,500

10--------295-----$ 136,800

 

Total - $6,397,800 + $255,912 (4% overage)

 

If the Jays employ the same strategy as last draft (i.e. over-drafting college seniors from rounds 4-10 and signing them for around $5,000 each) they will have about $1,878,712 to play around with. I'm assuming they'll go over the bonus pool by 4% again and pay the 75% tax on overage to give them a little more financial wiggle room. That 1.8mm should allow them to get at least 2 pretty good talents that might fall, as every signing bonus handed out after the tenth round gets an extra $100,000 that doesn't count against the pool. So they could offer 1 guy 1.9mm or 2 guys 1mm each. If we do go with Hunter Harvey at 10 and he signed for say 1.5mm, then you can add another 1.4mm to the bonus pool.

[TheHurl]

Jays and all the mocks (I've ignored any posted prior to May 1st) Tonight I'm throwing together a spreadsheet of the top 30 via mock.

 

BA (Callis) - Trey Ball

Perfect Game (staff collaborative, Simpson drafting on behalf of the Jays) - Manaea

Minor League Ball (Garrioch) - Meadows

Minor League Ball (Sickels) - Ball

Big League Futures (Kevin R) - Stanek

Big League Futures (Grabusky) - Ball

Prospectus Pros - Kohl Stewart

Rule 4 Draft - Moran

Sports Illustrated - Stanek

Scout.com (Kiley McD) - Meadows

Bleacher Report (Rapp) - A. Wilson

Bleacher Report (Wells) - Frazier

MLB Draft Insider - Ball

Crawfish Boxes - Stanek

MLB Draft Prospects - Wilson

Through the Fence - JP Crawford

[GD]

Ugh, please, no Ball. I'm okay with McGuire though because it shows we're at least open to saying to hell with Arencibia.

[ace3113]

Jays and all the mocks (I've ignored any posted prior to May 1st) Tonight I'm throwing together a spreadsheet of the top 30 via mock.

 

BA (Callis) - Trey Ball

Perfect Game (Simpson drafting on behalf of the Jays) - Manaea

Minor League Ball (Garrioch) - Meadows

Minor League Ball (Sickels) - Ball

Big League Futures (Kevin R) - Stanek

Big League Futures (Grabusky) - Ball

Prospectus Pros - Kohl Stewart

Rule 4 Draft - Moran

Sports Illustrated - Stanek

Scout.com (Kiley McD) - Meadows

Bleacher Report (Rapp) - A. Wilson

Bleacher Report (Wells) - Frazier

MLB Draft Insider - Ball

Crawfish Boxes - Stanek

MLB Draft Prospects - Wilson

Through the Fence - JP Crawford

 

These are my preferences. Though I doubt we'll draft a Boras guy (Manaea, Stanek), which is a shame. If we can get Riley Unroe somehow in the second I'll be happy. He apparently wants 1.4mm though.

[Dr. Dinger]

Of the guys who might realistically drop to us, I'm intrigued by Manaea.

[Dr. Dinger]

I also have a feeling this is going to be a pretty Ricciardi-esque draft for the Jays.

[GD]

These are my preferences. Though I doubt we'll draft a Boras guy (Manaea, Stanek), which is a shame. If we can get Riley Unroe somehow in the second I'll be happy. He apparently wants 1.4mm though.

 

I agree with you completely except I wouldn't mind JP Crawford either. Unroe or Milone would be cool in the 2nd. Or maybe Jon Crawford if he slips.

[GD]

Of the guys who might realistically drop to us, I'm intrigued by Manaea.

 

Boras client. We probably won't even look at him.

 

I also have a feeling this is going to be a pretty Ricciardi-esque draft for the Jays.

 

In terms of quality or philosophy?

[Dr. Dinger]

I agree with you completely except I wouldn't mind JP Crawford either. Unroe or Milone would be cool in the 2nd. Or maybe Jon Crawford if he slips.

 

f***, I didn't realize Stanek & Manaea are Boras clients. They will literally, literally not be on the Jays draft board.

[Dr. Dinger]

Boras client. We probably won't even look at him.

 

 

 

In terms of quality or philosophy?

 

In terms of AA has gone all-in on this core, and will draft almost-ready college products in attempt to save his own job.

[GD]

f***, I didn't realize Stanek & Manaea are Boras clients. They will literally, literally not be on the Jays draft board.

 

I doubt we've even sent any scouts to see them lol.

 

In terms of AA has gone all-in on this core, and will draft almost-ready college products in attempt to save his own job.

 

I think he sticks with the prospect porn guys like Ball which pisses me off even more.

[TheHurl]

It's not about paying. Boras will not deal with the Jays if possible. He blames Beeston for purposely screwing over Paxton (which I agree with).

[Dr. Dinger]

It's not about paying. Boras will not deal with the Jays if possible. He blames Beeston for purposely screwing over Paxton (which I agree with).

 

You would, Vic Rauter.

[TheHurl]

Time to forgive and forget. We can't just not acquire the best players possible because who the agent is.

 

The Jays aren't the ones to forgive though. If Boras isn't willing to play nice with the Jays it's best to avoid him. There should be some belief that he'll do best for his client but Boras has advised clients to do odd things before. Manaea and Stanek were both ranked in the top 3 pre-season...they probably don't kill themselves by going back but I don't see them getting back into that top 3 equation.

[ace3113]

I agree with you completely except I wouldn't mind JP Crawford either. Unroe or Milone would be cool in the 2nd. Or maybe Jon Crawford if he slips.

 

I love Crawford's tools but I worry a little about the bat. In the games I saw him play at many of the big events, he didn't impress me very much with the stick against top-level competition. If the bat translates to the next level though you have a potential all-star I would think.

 

I think we could get Milone in the 3rd, and he would be excellent value there. I desperately want Unroe at pick 47 but there's buzz that either the Rangers or the Rays want him in the supplemental. He's a guy I really think will hit in pro-ball, and he's not short on tools either.

[GD]

I love Crawford's tools but I worry a little about the bat. In the games I saw him play at many of the big events, he didn't impress me very much with the stick against top-level competition. If the bat translates to the next level though you have a potential all-star I would think.

 

I think we could get Milone in the 3rd, and he would be excellent value there. I desperately want Unroe at pick 47 but there's buzz that either the Rangers or the Rays want him in the supplemental. He's a guy I really think will hit in pro-ball, and he's not short on tools either.

 

Yeah that's my worry with him, he's not *high* on my list because of his hit tool (or lack thereof).

 

Unroe seems like a really nice pick. I kinda want Karen Whitson in the later rounds.

 

I seriously cannot wait until the draft tomorrow.

[GD]

Can't remember if I posted this already, but I found an old list from my old laptop of prospects I've kept an eye on since about August/September: Clint Frazier, Austin Meadows, Kris Bryant, Trey Ball, Sean Manea, Jonathan Crawford, Ian Clarkin, Stephen Gonzalves, Oscar Mercado, Austin Wilson, David Denson, Dominic Smith, Karen Whitson, Jeremy Martinez, Zach Collins. Crawford, Clarkin, Gonzalves, Denson, Martinez, and Collins have all kinda faded, and Mercado has too to an extent. Wonder if we could get some late round value there.

[TheHurl]

Found this blog. I'm going to try and get this guy to start posting here. Not that he's posting anything groundbreaking but he's obviously got a passion for the draft.

 

http://www.bluejaysplus.com/2013/06/what-to-expect-from-blue-jays-heading.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

 

What to Expect From the Blue Jays Heading Into Draft Day

 

THE MLB RULE 4 DRAFT IS THIS THURSDAY, AND IN THE FIRST ROUND, THE BLUE JAYS WILL BE PICKING 10TH OVERALL.. THIS IS THEIR HIGHEST SELECTION SINCE JPR PASSED UP ON TROY TULOWITZKI TO TAKE THE GREAT RICKY ROMERO. I WILL BE PREVIEWING THE TOP PROSPECTS IN THIS DRAFT THAT THE JAYS HAVE EITHER BEEN LINKED TO, OR LOOK TO BE DRAFTED AROUND THE AREA WHERE THE JAYS ARE DRAFTING.

 

I feel it’s safe to assume that certain players are bound to go ahead of the Blue Jays' tenth pick in this year’s rule four amateur draft, but after those five players anything could happen. The players I believe will be picked of the Jays are: Jonathan Grey, Mark Appel, Kris Bryant, Kohl Stewart, and Colin Moran.

 

Here are the players, after those five, that could end up being selected by the Jays. They’re in order of who I would want the Jays to take once their pick arrives. The list is derived from videos I’ve watched, along with scouting reports I’ve read. I don’t own a pitcher or batter bias, rather, I prefer the best player available, with the most projectability and the least risk, in my opinion. I am not a professional scout, I have just watched some video and read a lot about each of these players. Keep in mind that when the Jays have gone with position players in the top few rounds under the AA regime, they seem to go with toolsy players who don't necessarily need to stick in the outfield, so Frazier and Meadows are likely being targeted at this point.

 

1-CLINT FRAZIER – OF – 6’1 – 190 LBS -- 18 YEARS OLD

Frazier’s unique combination of speed and power put him near the top of most draft broads, and if the Jays are lucky enough to have him fall onto their laps, they cannot pass on him, in my opinion. He’s outstandingly athletic with room for growth, and again, the power and speed are quite evident. He could have a 70 power bat in the future, and 50 hit tool. He plays the game all-out, which can have its pros and cons obviously, evident in the constant drama that surrounds Brett Lawrie.

 

2-BRADEN SHIPLEY – RHP – 6’3 – 190 LBS -- 21 YEARS OLD

This solid college righty has really raised his draft stock, especially when considering he wasn’t drafted out of high school, at all. Shipley throws 3 solid pitches that all project as possibly above average offerings, with a fastball that sits in the mid-90s, and has been seen up to 98mph. His change up is considered by many as his best pitch, and he throws it in the mid 80's and it's very hard to pick up out of his hand. His curveball is pretty non-existent right now, defintitley not a plus pitch yet, but it does have some movement and he throws it in the high 70's. He projects as a #2 out of college.

 

3-AUSTIN MEADOWS – OF – 6’3 – 200 LBS -- 18 YEARS OLD

Meadows and Frazier are practically tied on many boards a product of their similar skill sets and same home state, but Frazier’s raw power intrigues me more than Meadows even 5 tools. Meadows is, like Frazier, a projectable high school outfielder with crazy bat potential, but with less power and more speed. I would be thrilled with Meadows if he ends up with the Jays, because he’s a very projectable corner-outfielder with 5 tools.

 

4-RYNE STANEK – RHP – 6’4 – 190 LBS -- 22 YEARS OLD

This near-23 year old has fallen on some draft boards, and is truly a wildcard, meaning he could go anywhere in the first half of the draft. Stanek’s a projectable right hander with a mid-90s fastball that’s been seen up to 97. The slider is lethal at times, but is seen as inconsistent. Also shows a curve and change, both in progress, but could turn into solid offerings. The fear that his all-out effort delivery could force him into the bullpen could let him slip down in the draft, right onto the Jays’ lap if they wish to select him.

 

5-TREY BALL – LHP/OF – 6’6 – 180 LBS -- 18 YEARS OLD

 

Ball has been continuously linked with the Jays according to Keith Law of ESPN and others. He seems like the most likely pick at 10. He has played two positions effectively, but I believe most prefer him, and his 6’6 frame, as a starting pitcher. As a lefty in the mid-low-90s with the fastball that can touch 96 out of high school, with a tight breaking curve (with a lack of experience with the pitch), there is much to love. Ball projects as a #2 starter (maybe even better), with the OF as a backup plan, if he was to need it. His mechanics are said to be very smooth and repeatable, something the Jays sure could use in their system.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*Line represents where, if I was drafting the Jays’ pick would be located. Meaning one of the other four would be mildly disappointing, unless the pick is paid under slot value, giving the Jays more money to buy high on a second rounder.

 

6-PHIL BICKFORD – RHP – 6’4 – 185 LBS -- 17 YEARS OLD

Bickford, like Stanek is a wild card. I, unfortunately, don’t know as much as I’d like to about Bickford. From the videos and reports I’ve seen, the fastball hits 97 and the slider has large break with big swing and miss potential. He throws from an unorthodox ¾ arm slot that makes his slider that much better, but also very inconsistent. He has top of the rotation potential, but has a long way to go, especially with the interesting mechanics possessed by the young right hander.

 

7-REESE MCGUIRE – C – 6’1 – 190 LBS -- 18 YEARS OLD

McGuire is a defense-first catcher, with room to grow at the plate. Some say he could catch in the big leagues at this moment—if it didn’t mean he had to hit. His elite defense is highly touted, and it only takes one team to believe in a decent bat to grab him early on, including the Jays. The track record of HS prep catchers is not good, to say the least, so risk is a huge factor here.

 

8-DOMINIC SMITH – 1B – 6’ – 195 LBS -- 18 YEARS OLD

Smith is a gold glove caliber 1B (ok), with bat potential to follow (obviously). Smith has been linked to the Jays, but I personally don’t see how they pass on at least three of the players ahead of him on this list. I also doubt the Jays could sign a high-school student with college commitments for under slot value, despite the possible overdraft.

 

9-JP CRAWFORD – SS – 6’2 – 180 LBS -- 18 YEARS OLD

Personally, I DO NOT want the Jays to select Crawford. He’s nothing special, and is only rated so high because there is literally no other SS with a chance to make the big leagues in this draft. There are guys I prefer over Crawford (minimally), but Crawford has been linked to the Jays, whereas others like Hunter Renfroe have not. Crawford isn’t a stand out in the field or with the bat. This is the one guy that I would be utterly disappointed with the Jays drafting, even if he signs under slot value.

 

For more info on the Draft, check out the latest episode of the BJP Podcast, where Gideon and Ewan talked with Jeremy Nygaard about the players the Jays might take.

 

You can follow me on twitter, @Canucks_BlueJay.

[GD]

Hah, Hurl, I literally just finished reading that. I read BlueJaysPlus occasionally. Only thing really wrong to me is that he ranked Bickford over Smith.

[TheHurl]

And probably the best draft story ever...and a big point towards scouts and a drum that some regulars have been beating to death here.

 

http://dirkhayhurst.com/2013/06/5308/

 

My Life Is A Lie

tag : Baseball, Blue Jays, Dirk Hayhurst, Kent State, MLB, Pitchingcomment : 0

My entire baseball career is built on a lie.

 

It started just after my junior year, on the day I wasn’t drafted but was told I would be.

 

I spent 2002 playing ace to my college staff, leading the squad to a regional bid, making the all-conference all-star team for my effort. My fastball sat in the low-90s, I struck out hitters in bunches, and ate up innings in big gulps.

 

A Cleveland Indians scout said I should expect to go in the top 10 rounds. You can’t imagine what that was like to hear. Me, a stupid kid, never had a paycheque bigger than $300, told I’d get drafted to play my dream and probably make a $100,000 or so in the process. Surreal.

 

The day of the draft I sat in my room, on the floor, surrounded by dirty clothes, useless textbooks and dorm room furniture. The only thing I’d bothered to unpack was my phone, which I held, waiting for it to ring.

 

The call never came.

 

I thought there had been a mistake. I had no reason to doubt my sources. Besides, I was one of the best in my conference and the best are supposed to get drafted, right? Turns out that was just another naive belief, one of many I had about the professional baseball world.

 

That 2002 draft day taught me a valuable lesson: Baseball is cruel. It will tell you one thing and do another. And if you want to make the most out of your time in it, you have to be willing to do the same thing.

 

I came into my 2003 season angry. I wanted answers for why I didn’t get drafted, but even more so, I wanted answers for why I was told to think I’d get drafted, and drafted high, when I wasn’t on anyone’s radar.

 

But scouts aren’t very definitive about things like why your dreams aren’t fulfilled. Some say it’s you; some say it’s the league; some say it’s timing and fate and baseball. General cliché statements that sounded like baseball’s version of, “It’s not you it’s me.”

 

After watching video and consulting my coaches, we came to the consensus that I needed to showcase more potential tools, leave something up to the imagination and create something for scouts to “project,” as they are fond of saying.

 

It was a violation of one of baseball’s doctrines, to fix what wasn’t broken. I was a two-pitch pitcher – fastball and curveball. I had broken Kent State’s all-time innings pitched and strikeout records throwing them. I could run and sink my fastball, raise and lower my hook, but that was it. No changeup, no cutter, no splitter and no slider.

 

I was told to mix them in. Things I’d never thrown before in my life. I was told that when the right counts and situations presented themselves to make sure scouts could write down more than “fastball/curveball.”

 

And so my entire 2003 season was one of waste pitches that looked like backed-up sliders and tumbling splitters, and change-ups that were about as deceptive from my fastball as a fake mustache.

 

But throwing mystery pitches was only part of it. I had to talk the talk. That’s why, when a certain scout from the San Diego Padres plopped down next to me in the stands of my college, asking why I didn’t throw my slider during the previous day’s game, instead of telling him I didn’t have one to throw, I told him it was because I had a blister on my finger.

 

As fate would have it, I had a Band-Aid on my middle finger. Not from a blister, but because throwing my sinking two-seamer caused my fingernail to split. Damn thing was split all the way into the centre of my nail and kept catching on my jacket and pulling open. Hurt like hell. A Band-Aid kept it closed until it grew out.

 

It also made a hell of a prop for my blister story.

 

“Ah,” the scout said, “sorry to hear that. I saw you down in Vanderbilt. I wrote down that you had good command, nice plane on your pitches, and a budding slider.”

 

I thought back to the day in question. I actually threw two curve balls sideways by accident that day.

 

“Yeah,” I said, “I wish I had it yesterday. Would have made the day a lot smoother, but,” I held up my finger and shook my head at it, “this stupid blister, ya know?”

 

“Let it heal up, son,” the scout said. “I’m just glad to know you still go it. I think it could be a real separator for you.”

 

Separator indeed.

 

On draft day in 2003, when I sat in my room, surrounded by boxes and useless text books and a pile of baseball equipment I wouldn’t use again if I didn’t get an offer from a pro team, my phone rang. It was the Padres. They were calling to tell me they’d selected me in the eighth round of the draft.

 

Two days later I signed a contract to play professional baseball, made it to the big leagues six years after that, and wrote a best-seller about life in professional baseball the year after that.

 

All thanks to a slider I didn’t throw.

[Boxcar]

Nice. Hayhurst is good at telling stories, and this is a doozy.

[Laika]

Hilarious

[GD]

Nice read.