Owen Hill

Welcome to Jays Centre’s coverage of the 2025 MLB Draft! Here you can follow all of the day’s events, and join in on the conversation surrounding the newest Toronto Blue Jays. This year’s draft will once again consist of 20 rounds, the first three taking place on Sunday evening starting at 6 P.M. ET, and rounds four through 20 taking place on Monday. The Jays have just two picks on day one of the draft, the eighth overall selection in the first round and the 81st overall pick in the third round. The Jays forfeited their second round pick when signing Anthony Santander, who had received a qualifying offer from the Baltimore Orioles. The Blue Jays have a bonus pool of $10,314,600 to divide amongst their picks. We're excited to show off the Blue Jays Draft Tracker, which will be kept up-to-date not only during the draft but through the entire signing period. So keep coming back for updates! The draft is a busy, fast paced event, and we’ll be updating articles and providing scouting reports on the Blue Jays picks as things happen, so stay tuned, and feel free to make your thoughts known in the comments! The draft will continue with day two on Monday, starting at 11:30 A.M. ET.

I think a lot of baseball fans would be surprised to hear that as of July 8, the American League East-leading Blue Jays have received a 4.59 ERA and just 3.8 fWAR from their starting pitchers, the sixth and seventh worst marks in MLB so far this season. Those numbers don't really seem like they pass the eye test, but the Jays’ 16-10 record in one-run games (the fifth best winning percentage in baseball in such contests) and 18-30 record when allowing more than four runs (third best) has helped cover up a lot of their starters’ struggles so far this season. Blue Jays starters also owe much thanks to the position players that have led a productive offense and the best defense in baseball, according to Fielding Run Value. Digging into the performances of individuals makes the overall stats a little bit easier to come to terms with. If it weren’t for the consistent efforts of Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and José Berríos, a lack of starting pitching may have already sunk the Blue Jays’ season. While none of the three are having particularly eye-popping seasons statistically, they’ve pitched a boatload of productive innings. Bassitt and Gausman both have ERAs over four but are on pace to throw over 175 innings. In his age-36 season, Bassitt isn’t quite as effective as he once was, and opponents are having more success against him. At 34 years old, Gausman is on a similar trajectory; his days of contending for Cy Young Awards as a clear number one starter may be behind him. But while neither has been consistently dominant, Gausman and Bassitt have been invaluable to this Blue Jays team as middle-of-the-rotation starters. In a similar boat, Berríos has quietly been putting together yet another extremely solid season. His ERA sits just above 3.50, and he leads Blue Jays pitchers with 12 quality starts and 112.1 innings pitched. He is outperforming his xERA by nearly a full run, but that’s something he’s done consistently throughout his career, especially as a Blue Jay. In order to simply get through the grind of a 162-game season, much less win enough games to make the playoffs or win a division, hundreds of innings need to be eaten, and the Gausman, Bassitt, Berríos trio has done an incredible job of that. The Blue Jays are one of two teams with three pitchers to have thrown 100 innings so far this season. But the question I’d ask is which one of these guys do you want starting game one of a Wild Card series? What about games one and five of a division series? There’s not really a clear answer. Further to that point, there’s not a team in the American League playoff race that doesn’t have at least one starter having a definitively better season than any of the Blue Jays' top starters. That’s why when we’re putting together our wishlist for the trade deadline, and taking a look at where the Blue Jays could improve, a top-end starting pitcher is the big ticket item. I would trust any of Gausman, Bassitt, or Berríos to start playoff games, but when talking about ways to raise the ceiling of this team from one that goes on a regular season run to one that strings together some wins in October, I think they need an ace. To put this in terms Blue Jays fans will understand well: I’m asking for the David Price trade. That’s not to say the Jays have to go big or go home when looking to acquire starting pitching at the trade deadline. At times early in the season, it looked like a lack of starting pitching depth was going to be the downfall of this team. Bowden Francis and Easton Lucas proved that they weren’t the answer in the fifth spot of the rotation, the Spencer Turnbull and José Ureña experiments didn’t last very long, and further options to come up from Triple A were seemingly non-existent. More recently, the rotation has stabilized. Eric Lauer has emerged as a reliable arm, working a 2.65 ERA across 13 appearances and seven starts, and Max Scherzer has made three starts in a row since coming off the injured list a couple of weeks ago. Still, the Blue Jays are one injury away from asking Lazaro Estrada to pitch the bulk innings in bullpen games, and while his four-inning, one-run MLB debut was encouraging, I’m not ready to see him step into Scherzer’s shoes should the veteran require another IL stint. Alek Manoah is a name that’s been kicked around as a potential option to start down the stretch, and while he is on my radar, I would consider any contribution he makes to the 2025 Blue Jays found money. Not only was he extremely ineffective the last time we saw him, but he’s coming off of major elbow surgery and has yet to start pitching in rehab games. It will come a lot cheaper than the ace I asked for earlier, but it’s still important that the Blue Jays find a way to add a contingency plan to start games, especially considering Scherzer’s thumb has continued to hold him back from throwing deep into contests. I’m thinking about a Ross Stripling / Ryan Yarbrough / Mitch White-esque deal that we’ve seen Ross Atkins pull off in previous contending seasons. With the trade deadline just over three weeks away, we’re close to teams declaring themselves buyers or sellers, and close to having an idea of which names Atkins and the Jays will have their sights set on before July 31.

The Blue Jays followed a breakout May with a solid month of June, going 16-10. They played complete baseball, finishing in the month seventh in runs scored, producing the third most position player fWAR in baseball (5.3), and completely lapping the field when it came to defense, putting up 10.5 defensive runs above average, according to FanGraphs. That mark is nearly three times that of the second place team! The home run power we saw in May didn’t play as prevalent a role for the Blue Jays this month, as they hit just 26 after blasting 38 in May. Still, the team finished with a healthy wRC+ of 107, good for the 11th-best mark in the sport. The end of June gives us a chance to acknowledge the position players who made it a successful month for the Blue Jays. Honourable Mention Addison Barger - .239/.287/..489, 5 HR, 6 BB, 29 K, 115 wRC+, 0.7 fWAR It was hard to find a Blue Jays story with much more helium than Addison Barger’s breakout May. He finished the month with an OPS of nearly .900, he cut his strikeout rate to just 22%, and he tied Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with a 146 wRC+. He’s earned a regular spot hitting between Bo Bichette and Guerrero Jr., but June saw Barger’s production slow down a touch as his name climbed up scouting reports across the league. The biggest warning sign was that his walk-to-strikeout ratio went from 0.45 in May to 0.21 in June. The chart below shows that Barger is being pitched differently, facing breaking pitches nearly eight percent more often in June than he was in May. This means he’s facing fewer fastballs and even fewer offspeed pitches. This all makes sense when we look at Barger’s production against different types of pitches this season and see that he’s got an xwOBA of .525 against offspeed pitches, .371 against fastballs, and just .255 against breaking balls. via Baseball Savant This was an extremely roundabout way of saying that despite coming back down to earth a little bit, Barger had a very solid June, considering how opposing teams changed the way they were attacking him. He produced the fourth most fWAR on the Jays at 0.7, hit five homers, and posted an OPS of .776, plenty good enough for an honourable mention on my Blue Jays Hitters of the Month list. 3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - .290/.383/.516, 4 HR, 10 BB, 10 K, 153 wRC+, 0.9 fWAR It’s no secret at this point that the Jays go as Vladdy goes, so it makes sense that after being my choice for the number one Blue Jays hitter for the Month in May, Vladdy put up another productive month in June. Vlad continued to look just like himself, and as per usual, his baseball savant page is bright red as he combines some monstrous exit velocities with an impressive contact rate, and an ability to walk as much as he strikes out. You’re probably more than familiar with Vlad’s offensive profile by now, so I want to draw your attention to his defense. For the first time in his career, including when he won the Gold Glove in 2022, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is on pace to finish with a positive fielding run value. For a team that’s been one of the best on the defensive side of the ball for a third straight year, it’s really nice to see the Jays’ star player take on that identity a little bit. Of course, the conversation surrounding Guerrero Jr. is always going to start and end with his offense, and while he had a good June, we’re still waiting to see him go nuclear and carry this offense for an extended stretch. The power output has been disappointing in 2025, and he added just four homers in June to bring his season total to 12, a large part of the explanation for him coming up only third on this list. If you’re looking for some optimism going into the second half of the season: 2024: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. through June 30: .298 AVG, 13 HR, .848 OPS 2025: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. through June 30: .282 AVG, 12 HR, .840 OPS Right around this time last year is when Vladdy went unconscious and put up a 187 wRC+ over his final 75 games, so hopefully we’re on the verge of another explosion, and when I write this article at the end of July, Vlad’s name is the easy number one. One final fun note on Guerrero Jr.’s June: He led the Blue Jays in stolen bases with three. 2. Ernie Clement - .354/.398/.455, 1 HR, 8 BB, 6 K, 141 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR Year after year in baseball, there are breakout stories surrounding guys who weren’t on very many radars entering the year. For the Blue Jays, that story has been Ernie Clement. After getting hot in May, Clement has ridden the wave all the way through June. His elite ability to put the bat on the ball has been turning into a ton of hits, especially against left-handed pitching. This month, we saw Clement do something none of us thought was possible: walk (eight times) more than he struck out (six times). Considering that, and the fact that he hit over .350 with seven doubles, there weren’t a whole lot of questions surrounding the offensive side of his game in June. Clement finding some offensive consistency has made it easy for John Schneider to pencil his name into the lineup every day, but it’s always a surprise to fans where he’s playing. He started at all four infield positions at least once in June, including playing a very good back-up shortstop on days when Bichette was out of the lineup and a solid first base when Vlad took a day off. His 3.8 Def, according to FanGraphs, led all non-Alejandro Kirk Blue Jays in June, and his 1.3 fWAR brought his season total up to 2.7. Clement should be the current favourite to win the utility Gold Glove at the end of the season, but perhaps a spicier take is that he deserves some consideration to come off the bench for the American League in the All-Star Game in a couple of weeks. 1. Alejandro Kirk - .337/.385/.528, 4 HR, 7 BB, 9 K, 159 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR Speaking of guys that shouldn’t be making plans over the All-Star break, Alejandro Kirk would be a lock to start for the American League in Atlanta if Cal Raleigh wasn’t in the midst of one of the best offensive seasons a catcher has ever produced. Still, Kirky should be a safe bet to be the second catcher representing the AL. A big reason for that is the month Kirk put up in June. All facets of his defense remained elite, as his +14 FRV is currently the best mark in baseball this season. FanGraphs had him as the most valuable defender in baseball in June with a 5.7 Def, nearly a full run and a half higher than Nick Allen of the Atlanta Braves. Aside from his otherworldly defense, Kirk’s offensive profile has been something to marvel at this year. His 55.9% hard-hit rate is the seventh best mark among qualified hitters, while his strikeout percentage of 9.8% is the fifth best. There is no qualified player in the top 150 in hard hit percentage with a strikeout rate equal to or lower than Kirk’s. Kirk is one of the few players who’s both elite at putting the ball in play and hitting it hard when he does. It’s no surprise that peripherals like that helped him to a .914 OPS in June. Kirk’s 1.4 fWAR led the Jays this past month, as did his 159 wRC+, and he was an easy choice to be the Blue Jays Hitter of the Month. What a privilege it is to have him anchoring the team almost every night behind the plate and in the middle of the order.

On April 30, Eric Lauer made his Blue Jays debut against the Red Sox, throwing four innings in relief of the opener, Yariel Rodríguez. Lauer allowed a pair of runs on three hits in a game the Jays would storm back to win after falling into a six-run deficit. Since then, Lauer has been a mainstay of the Blue Jays pitching staff, making 10 more appearances, including five starts, and working a 1.96 ERA. He’s been a complete revelation for a staff that looked on the verge of falling apart after Max Scherzer left his first start just three innings into his Blue Jays tenure. For the last six weeks, Lauer-led bullpen days, whether he got the start or pitched bulk innings out of the bullpen, have been a fixture of the Blue Jays rotation as they’ve waited for reinforcements. When Lauer was recalled from Triple A at the end of April, the hope was that he wouldn't immediately sink the Jays every time he entered a contest, but instead, his appearances have had a direct impact on winning; the Blue Jays are 8-3 this season when Lauer appears in a game! Obviously, pitcher wins and losses don’t hold much weight (Blue Jays fans will remember Drew Hutchison famously going 13-5 with a 5.57 ERA in 2015), but Lauer doesn’t just make sure the Jays don’t lose, he helps them pick up wins. Opponents are hitting just .186 against Lauer, he has the best K-BB% of his major league career at 16.8%, and most importantly, he’s given up just 10 earned runs across 40.2 innings pitched for a 2.21 ERA. It goes without saying that those are pretty awesome numbers from a guy who was expected to be nothing more than depth coming out of spring training, but digging into how he’s getting to them is somewhat fascinating. Lauer’s four-seam fastball is in the 15th percentile in baseball when it comes to velocity. He throws it just 91.9 mph on average, but it’s been the most effective pitch of any qualified Blue Jay according to Statcast run value/100, as seen in the following table: Table is from prior to games on June 25. Maybe even more impressive than that is the fact that Lauer’s is the ninth most valuable four-seamer in all of baseball in the same statistic. His fastball stands up against those of guys like Zack Wheeler, Robert Suarez, and Edwin Díaz. It’s somewhat peculiar that Lauer’s fastball has been so effective at such a low velocity, especially considering his extension is also unimpressive, sitting in the 24th percentile in baseball at just 6.2 feet. This probably speaks to his ability to locate it so effectively and how well it plays off of his other pitches. Lauer has been featuring a changeup 10% of the time, but he throws three pitches that break: a cutter, a curveball, and a slider. All three play very well off of his fastball due to varied amounts of break and velocity changes. With Lauer at just 40.2 innings pitched on the season, we still must apply the small sample size caveat, and there’s a reason the Jays forced him to prove himself over several outings before giving him his own spot in the starting rotation without an opener. He also has just a 93 Stuff+ according to FanGraphs, and guys without above-average stuff are a lot more volatile than guys with above-average stuff, simply because the margin for error is smaller on their mistakes. But it cannot be overstated how positive a story Lauer has been for the Blue Jays this season. After a really poor 2023 starting for the Milwaukee Brewers, he had a 4.93 ERA pitching in Korea in 2024. Not many former major leaguers who perform that poorly overseas make their way back into big league rotations, but Lauer has done it. And he’s earned himself some leash. Lauer’s next start is scheduled to come against the Red Sox at Fenway Park on Sunday, and I can’t wait to see him get a chance to continue building on his success. Stats in article updated prior to games on June 25.

We’re just over a month away from the trade deadline, and the Toronto Blue Jays find themselves in sole possession of a Wild Card spot and within striking distance of the New York Yankees for the top spot in the American League East. In the time between now and the July 31 deadline, the Blue Jays will almost certainly make some moves to supplement the big league roster in hopes of widening the gap between them and the teams below them, and closing the gap between them and the Yankees. The Jays are expected to try to get their hands on a starting pitcher, and there are conversations to be had about opportunities to upgrade the lineup. Yet, typically the easiest and cheapest moves to make are for bullpen help. It’s not the most obvious area of need; Blue Jays relievers rank 12th in ERA at 3.66, 10th in fWAR at 2.1, and have the second best K-BB% in baseball at 17.6%. Still, there are definitely some question marks that need answers if the Jays are to be taken seriously down the stretch. There have been a few really positive stories to come out of the Blue Jays' bullpen this season. Names like Braydon Fisher and Mason Fluharty (despite his recent struggles) have seemingly come out of nowhere to step up in a big way and solidify the middle innings, acting as a perfect bridge to the back-end guys. Brendon Little and Yariel Rodríguez have both stepped into big roles, getting some of the biggest outs of the season so far. Little leads Blue Jays relievers with 0.8 fWAR and is rocking an ERA in the low-2.00s, while Rodríguez has solidified himself as the guy John Schneider goes to against the opposing team’s best hitters before the ninth inning, especially in Yimi García’s absence. But for all of the positive stories, the volatility of relievers has reared its ugly head at times this season. Chad Green, owed $10.5 million in 2025, appears to be on the verge of a DFA, as his HR/9 has ballooned to 2.73, and his ERA is comfortably above four. García was solid when healthy, but he’s spent the last month on the IL. Jeff Hoffman, the closer and the same guy who had a 1.17 ERA through the end of April, has a 9.00 ERA in 21 games since May 1. It’s reasonable to be concerned about the Blue Jays' ability to continue to outrun negative production from Green and Hoffman, and to have questions about what García will look like upon his return. That’s why I expect the Jays to be shopping at the top of the reliever market, looking for a guy they think they can trust when the lights are brightest. The Jays are in a good position to add to the bullpen because they’re not in desperate need of any specific archetype. Lefty Blue Jays relievers, headlined by Little and Fluharty, have combined for a 3.27 ERA, which is 11th in baseball, and a 30.3% strikeout percentage, which ranks fourth. Righties coming out of Toronto’s bullpen also have the 11th best ERA in MLB at 3.85, and they have the third best strikeout percentage at 25.4%. If I had to point to the most glaring issue the ‘pen has faced, I’d draw attention to the number of homers it has given up. Jays relievers have allowed 32 bombs, which is the 16th most in baseball, putting them right in the middle of the pack. Naming potential trade targets more than a month before the deadline is always a dangerous game to play, but David Bednar of the Pirates is a name on an uncompetitive team that should be available. He would help address the home run problem and has experience pitching in high-leverage moments. The other way the Jays could potentially address the bullpen is by adding more of a long man. Their issues in the rotation have been well documented, as they’ve essentially run a four-man squad since the outset of the season, relying on bullpen days once every turn. Adding a long man would make this slightly more sustainable if Max Scherzer falters, Spencer Turnbull cannot return to last year's form, Alek Manoah is unable to contribute coming off of UCL surgery, or the Blue Jays don’t end up trading for a traditional starter. Deadline bullpen adds aren’t the sexiest moves teams can make, but they can make a huge difference in a playoff race and are often the deciding factor in a postseason series. The Jays have a solid bullpen, but is there a name or two on the market that could take it from good to great? Stats updated prior to games on June 25.

While the Blue Jays roster has seemingly started to click, enjoying an extended stretch of strong play over the last month and a half, the back-end of the rotation remains a massive question mark. The team has seen success essentially running a four-man rotation, using the fifth spot as a bullpen day, typically headlined by Eric Lauer. Yet, the spot held by Bowden Francis has been a major momentum killer every fifth day. In 14 starts this season, Francis has the fifth-worst ERA among pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched (6.05). With the same 60-inning minimum applied, he’s giving up a league-worst 2.67 HR/9. Perhaps most importantly, the Blue Jays are just 4-10 in games when Francis starts. To be frank, Francis had been among the worst-performing starting pitchers in baseball, and it was getting to be past time that the Blue Jays reevaluate his spot in the rotation and his role in the organization going forward. Should Francis have been afforded the opportunity to continue working through his struggles as a starter in the majors? Would he have benefited from a stint in the minor leagues? Would a breather in a low-leverage relief role have gotten him back on track? Or is this trip to the injured list the best-case scenario for him and the Jays? The Jays have told us what they think by placing Francis on the injured list with an impingement in his throwing shoulder. I'm sure Francis does not feel his best. Few players do two and a half months into a season. Still, if his results were better, I think he would more than likely have been afforded the opportunity to keep working in the majors. A decision like this can often be a difficult one to make, because the Blue Jays need to find a way to do what’s best for the big league team while also finding a way to put Francis in the best position to succeed. With that being said, I don’t think it would have made a lot of sense to keep Francis in the major leagues but relegate him to a role in the bullpen. There are a couple of reasons for this, but the main one is that if he's healthy, he needs to pitch; whether that’s in the majors, the minors, or at the development complex in Dunedin. The odds of Francis rediscovering his 2024 self would be very low if he rotted in the major league bullpen, waiting for days when the Jays are up or down five runs in the middle innings, to get some run. This scenario also assumes that he would have been physically able to continue pitching. That brings us to Toronto's reason for sending Francis to the IL. Despite being in dire need of an adjustment since the outset of the season, Francis fell victim to the snowball effect. His starts had been getting steadily worse as the season continued. In three starts in June, he walked more batters (10) than he had innings pitched (8.2) and gave up a ridiculous 73% hard-hit rate. For reference, Shohei Ohtani leads qualified batters with a hard-hit rate of 62.4%. With all due respect, we were at the point where he was at risk of hitting the IL with whiplash if he kept having to watch so many of his pitches get crushed into play. Further, on the season, Francis’ stuff is way down. He’s gone from offering two pitches that graded out as above average according to FanGraphs’ Stuff+ (his splitter, 102, and curveball, 107, with his fastball at a respectable 98) to having zero above-average offerings in 2025. His curveball has declined the most, sitting at a 95 Stuff+, while his fastball and splitter are at 94. This could very likely be a result of his injury, and his body not being 100%, which is all the more reason to give him a chance to get right. My hope is that sending Francis to the IL is going to give him a chance to work on his stuff and figure out what’s changed between last year and this year, whether that’s mechanics, pitch grips, or simply just his physical health. I’d expect a trip to the Player Development Complex in Dunedin is in his near future. This is a move we’ve seen the Jays pull off before with struggling big league arms, most notably Alek Manoah in 2023 (although that one came without an IL stint). It would give Francis access to all of the resources a pitcher can dream of and, just as importantly, offer a bit of a mental break from the constant grind of everyday games in which he is failing. A trip to the Complex is not what you want for a guy you expected to be a big part of your rotation, but if there’s a chance it gets Francis back to being competitive against big league hitters, it’s a course of action the Jays have to take. Unfortunately, the issue with the Jays following this path with Francis is quite glaring: The options to fill his role in the rotation may simply be worse than just having him continue to run out every fifth day. The next obvious option to start games on the big league roster right now is Spencer Turnbull. Yet, he has just 4.1 innings under his belt in 2025, and he's coming off of a very shaky rehab stint (he gave up 14 earned runs in 17.1 innings in the minor leagues before debuting with the Blue Jays earlier this month). I think the Jays would be wise to allow Turnbull to continue to pitch himself into shape before throwing him into the fire of his own rotation spot. That seems to be the plan, with Turnbull expected to throw bulk innings in a bullpen game on what would have been Francis' next turn. It’s a similar story when it comes to the depth, or lack thereof, in Triple A. Jake Bloss, who figured to play a role for the big league team as rotation depth, is on the shelf after having UCL surgery earlier in the season. Easton Lucas, who was one of the first names called upon this year to help the big league rotation, has an ERA over 6.50 in six starts in Triple A. From there, the only other name in-house that could potentially replace Francis in the rotation right now is the 24-year-old lefty Adam Macko, but he’s also coming off of an injury and has worked just seven innings at Triple A in 2025. It’s worth noting that Macko and Francis are lined up on the same day, but in my mind, it would be a really aggressive move by the Jays to expect Macko to produce in the big leagues at this point. With Lauer’s bullpen day already a fixture in the rotation, it doesn’t leave much room for error for the other four starters to have short outings, which makes the idea of having a second bullpen day in the rotation a bit of a scary thought. The other option for the rotation spot is, of course, a trade, but it’s rare and difficult to make trades six weeks in advance of the trade deadline, before teams have committed to buying or selling. It's good news, then, that Max Scherzer could be ready to return next week if his rehab appearance goes well today. The Jays will have to exercise caution with the 40-year-old and injury-prone future Hall of Famer, but if Scherzer can pitch like he did when healthy last season, he would make a huge difference for Toronto's rotation. The Jays are walking a tightrope when it comes to their starting pitching these days. On one hand, it was unacceptable for a team with playoff and World Series aspirations to continue running out one of the worst starters in baseball every fifth day, but the options to replace him may not be much better. The Blue Jays seem to be on the verge of putting together a run, but their lack of starting pitching depth could turn out to be a real Achilles' heel if another starter goes down.