Trade Deadline 2025, Exploring the Blue Jays' Weaknesses: Starting Pitching

I think a lot of baseball fans would be surprised to hear that as of July 8, the American League East-leading Blue Jays have received a 4.59 ERA and just 3.8 fWAR from their starting pitchers, the sixth and seventh worst marks in MLB so far this season.

Those numbers don't really seem like they pass the eye test, but the Jays’ 16-10 record in one-run games (the fifth best winning percentage in baseball in such contests) and 18-30 record when allowing more than four runs (third best) has helped cover up a lot of their starters’ struggles so far this season.

Blue Jays starters also owe much thanks to the position players that have led a productive offense and the best defense in baseball, according to Fielding Run Value.

Digging into the performances of individuals makes the overall stats a little bit easier to come to terms with. If it weren’t for the consistent efforts of Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and José Berríos, a lack of starting pitching may have already sunk the Blue Jays’ season. While none of the three are having particularly eye-popping seasons statistically, they’ve pitched a boatload of productive innings. 

Bassitt and Gausman both have ERAs over four but are on pace to throw over 175 innings. In his age-36 season, Bassitt isn’t quite as effective as he once was, and opponents are having more success against him. At 34 years old, Gausman is on a similar trajectory; his days of contending for Cy Young Awards as a clear number one starter may be behind him. But while neither has been consistently dominant, Gausman and Bassitt have been invaluable to this Blue Jays team as middle-of-the-rotation starters.

In a similar boat, Berríos has quietly been putting together yet another extremely solid season. His ERA sits just above 3.50, and he leads Blue Jays pitchers with 12 quality starts and 112.1 innings pitched. He is outperforming his xERA by nearly a full run, but that’s something he’s done consistently throughout his career, especially as a Blue Jay. 

In order to simply get through the grind of a 162-game season, much less win enough games to make the playoffs or win a division, hundreds of innings need to be eaten, and the Gausman, Bassitt, Berríos trio has done an incredible job of that. The Blue Jays are one of two teams with three pitchers to have thrown 100 innings so far this season.

But the question I’d ask is which one of these guys do you want starting game one of a Wild Card series? What about games one and five of a division series?

There’s not really a clear answer. Further to that point, there’s not a team in the American League playoff race that doesn’t have at least one starter having a definitively better season than any of the Blue Jays' top starters. 

That’s why when we’re putting together our wishlist for the trade deadline, and taking a look at where the Blue Jays could improve, a top-end starting pitcher is the big ticket item. I would trust any of Gausman, Bassitt, or Berríos to start playoff games, but when talking about ways to raise the ceiling of this team from one that goes on a regular season run to one that strings together some wins in October, I think they need an ace.

To put this in terms Blue Jays fans will understand well: I’m asking for the David Price trade. 

That’s not to say the Jays have to go big or go home when looking to acquire starting pitching at the trade deadline.

At times early in the season, it looked like a lack of starting pitching depth was going to be the downfall of this team. 

Bowden Francis and Easton Lucas proved that they weren’t the answer in the fifth spot of the rotation, the Spencer Turnbull and José Ureña experiments didn’t last very long, and further options to come up from Triple A were seemingly non-existent.

More recently, the rotation has stabilized. Eric Lauer has emerged as a reliable arm, working a 2.65 ERA across 13 appearances and seven starts, and Max Scherzer has made three starts in a row since coming off the injured list a couple of weeks ago.

Still, the Blue Jays are one injury away from asking Lazaro Estrada to pitch the bulk innings in bullpen games, and while his four-inning, one-run MLB debut was encouraging, I’m not ready to see him step into Scherzer’s shoes should the veteran require another IL stint.

Alek Manoah is a name that’s been kicked around as a potential option to start down the stretch, and while he is on my radar, I would consider any contribution he makes to the 2025 Blue Jays found money. Not only was he extremely ineffective the last time we saw him, but he’s coming off of major elbow surgery and has yet to start pitching in rehab games. 

It will come a lot cheaper than the ace I asked for earlier, but it’s still important that the Blue Jays find a way to add a contingency plan to start games, especially considering Scherzer’s thumb has continued to hold him back from throwing deep into contests.

I’m thinking about a Ross Stripling / Ryan Yarbrough / Mitch White-esque deal that we’ve seen Ross Atkins pull off in previous contending seasons.

With the trade deadline just over three weeks away, we’re close to teams declaring themselves buyers or sellers, and close to having an idea of which names Atkins and the Jays will have their sights set on before July 31.