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bluejaysinternNo5

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Everything posted by bluejaysinternNo5

  1. bluejaysinternNo5
    Honestly I don;t really hate the trade in a vacuum either, although it may appear I do. I think that most of the backlash comes from the fact that Atkins really needed a big obvious win of a trade, not one that might look good in July 2025. I still wouldn't have made the trade personally but I don't think it's horrendous - just mediocre.
  2. bluejaysinternNo5
    You're completely right! I'm not saying you shouldn't trade value or pay up for good players. But those players have to be ACTUAL superstars. To me personally, a defensive specialist with around a league average bat is NOT a guy you want to push all your chips in on. To you, he was! That's completely fair. We'll see in the next 3 years who was right, but I disagree with the move. Personally, I would love to trade Tiedmann this winter for an actual superstar. Just not for Varsho.
  3. bluejaysinternNo5
    I find that looking at players with a Bayesian mindset really helps. You have to think about the probabilities of events occurring based on your prior beliefs, and those prior beliefs may be based on many things. For me, I'm always skeptical of defensive first players who straddle the line of league average at the plate. True, if they are league average they provide tremendous value. But if their bat ever falters they lose tremendous value. A good example might be Andrelton Simmons, who had back to back 4.9 and 4.5 win seasons (age 27 and 28). He played amazing defense and was barely above league average with the bat. In his next 4 seasons he had 2.9 war TOTAL. That's the downside that Varsho has.
  4. bluejaysinternNo5
    Want to make a bet? In 10 years if Varsho's 2022 was his peak, I win. Otherwise, you win. 100 bucks?
  5. bluejaysinternNo5
    See , the thing is this isn't really true. Varsho had a .298 xWOBA in 2022 and .303 WOBA in 2023. Seems like that was the downside right there?
  6. bluejaysinternNo5
    Are you suggesting that teams don't see tweaks they can make in players to produce more value out of them that other teams cannot? Did the Dodgers just luck into Muncy and Justin Turner? And you are a mod? Hmmm.
  7. bluejaysinternNo5
    Great, you can read a Fangraphs page. We bought at the peak of Varsho value. Atkins bought high. In classical economics, typically you wish to "buy low" (unless, of course you are trading for a bona-fide super star, but I doubt many would claim Varsho to be one). Varsho's Statcast page did not paint a picture of sustainable, above average production at the plate. And his most recent 2023 campaign of an 85 wRC+ just kind of shows that. Now I'm not saying Varsho can't be good in the future. Just that the trade came with lots of downside at the time.
  8. bluejaysinternNo5
    The thing is Varsho came with incredibly low upside and incredibly high downside. Sure, you could see Varsho adding a little more power in Toronto but his Statcast page in 2022 was very poor. Meanwhile Moreno was basically all upside. If you trade Moreno, you have to get someone with more upside than Varsho, who was essentially 2021 Bradley Zimmer for us this year.
  9. bluejaysinternNo5
    Tiedmann is being traded this winter in a blockbuster trade in an effort for Atkins to save himself so I wouldn't worry about it
  10. bluejaysinternNo5
    Last offseason was the time to trade Vlad. I mean you can still trade him now I won’t complain but if you were gonna trade him it should have been done last year.
  11. bluejaysinternNo5
    Unless 90% of staff is gone and the Kirk, Vlad, and Manoah collectively lose 250 pounds I don’t think I can watch this team next year.
  12. bluejaysinternNo5
    Vlad simultaneously gets the benefit of the doubt of being a seasoned vet and a young player at the same time. "You can't move him down he's a vet he'll figure it out" and "Don't worry he's just young he'll figure it out" lol. Infuriating.
  13. bluejaysinternNo5
    lol vlad batting 3rd again. It's like watching Pujols decline with the Angels in real time. So fun.
  14. bluejaysinternNo5
    I'm pretty sure the tide is turning on Vlad even amongst the casual fans. Which is good news because I can barely stand to watch this team while he's on it.
  15. bluejaysinternNo5
    Our best lineup has Schneider and Belt in it. Sorry Vlad, no more coasting by on your name alone. Bench him.
  16. bluejaysinternNo5
    The Vladdy situation is tough because I think at this point there is a solid point to be made in riding your hot bats in Belt and Schneider and having Vlad ride pine with so few games left in the season. On the other hand, you can look at the advanced metrics and think he's going to breakout and carry the team into the playoffs. Personally I don't think he will (I actually think he's going to sink this team lol but I would love to be proven wrong). The easy decision is to let Vladdy keep playing so that's what's going to happen.
  17. bluejaysinternNo5
    Yeah if our RISP production was the same as non-RISP we would be tied with Baltimore, if not ahead.
  18. bluejaysinternNo5
    30% discount on his desired 300M or a 30% discount on his current overpaid salary?
  19. bluejaysinternNo5
    Let's get Schneider in over Vladdy no more fooling around
  20. bluejaysinternNo5
    Damn Paul Dejong just sped run being DFA'd. Good for him.
  21. bluejaysinternNo5
    Horowitz would have outproduced Vlad this season you can’t change my mind
  22. bluejaysinternNo5
    He’s broken
  23. bluejaysinternNo5
    Vlad just reminds me too much of Kendrys Morales and I don’t like it. From 2015-2019 Morales had a wOBA of .333 but an xwOBA of .372 because he hit the ball hard. Here me out: Morales has a fraction of the talent of Vladdy so Morales’ 2009 (his age 26 season) where he hit 34 home runs for 3.7 WAR is equivalent to Vlad’s 2021 (age 22) season, adjusting for talent.
  24. bluejaysinternNo5
    At this point you just have to accept that Vlad is just a personality for the casual fans - they absolutely adore him.
  25. bluejaysinternNo5
    Everyone loves to point to Vlad’s stat cast page as evidence that he’s just unlucky but I can’t reconcile that. Go take a look at Kendrys Morales’ stat cast pages - they’re soaked in red too and they don’t look at all that different from Vlad’s this year. There’s more to the game than hitting the ball hard.
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