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bluejaysinternNo5

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Everything posted by bluejaysinternNo5

  1. bluejaysinternNo5
    They thought they were smarter than his .290 xWOBA in his final year in Arizona. They were not.
  2. bluejaysinternNo5
    I mean I get it - it's the beginning of the season. The first month is where you experiment. I would hope Atkins is aware of the sunk cost fallacy. Sucks though because IKF definitely would have gotten like 5M over 1 year if Atkins didn't jump on him.
  3. bluejaysinternNo5
    So much talk of good defense and yet so much sloppy play
  4. bluejaysinternNo5
    Clement is officially a guy
  5. bluejaysinternNo5
    That was effortless
  6. bluejaysinternNo5
    Biggio and Schneider will combine for 6 WAR
  7. bluejaysinternNo5
    Kirk has some juicy thighs
  8. bluejaysinternNo5
    I honestly think there is mass psychosis regarding Vlad. I don’t think I’ve seen this much fanfare for a s***** player ever.
  9. bluejaysinternNo5
    When do we hear about Vlad losing his arb case
  10. bluejaysinternNo5
    Under the projections tab click on Steamer600, which are the projections for every player prorated for 600 plate appearances. Ernie is projected for 1.6 WAR over 600 PA.
  11. bluejaysinternNo5
    Does this mean he’s the full time 3B to start the season? If so I can see him being pushed out later in the season if Barger or Orlevis push him out. If he can provide great defence at 3B then I don’t hate it considering the alternative was to give a declining Chapman 5+ years.
  12. bluejaysinternNo5
    He has to be. Even if the team doesn’t believe he’s real you have to give him consistent playing time in April and May for him to prove he’s not.
  13. bluejaysinternNo5
    Hoskins is the way. Very consistent player and like others have said very possible we could get him on a one year deal. Perfect.
  14. bluejaysinternNo5
    Thoughts on Rhys Hoskins? I’d rather have him than JD Martinez
  15. bluejaysinternNo5
    Grab Sean Bouchard from the Rockies to spell Varsho against lefties, before he turns into an all star.
  16. bluejaysinternNo5
    Mods can we make a new thread for f***ing chicken talk
  17. bluejaysinternNo5
    Just out of curiosity, how much of batting average with RISP evening out in the second half was because of the Buffalo call-ups? Davis Schneider and Ernie Clement hit .280 and .667 with RISP, respectively. Probably not much in the grand scheme of things.
  18. bluejaysinternNo5
    Preller does lots of things. Can absolutely see him making a trade like that.
  19. bluejaysinternNo5
    It's not fair to consider Varsho getting injured and missing the whole season to be the equivalent of Varsho failing at the plate, when Varsho has an xwOBA of .298 in 2022 and an actual wOBA of .293 in 2023. There was a very real chance that he hit like he did in 2023.
  20. bluejaysinternNo5
    This is also another good point - although I would say Bichette had a bit more of a track record but I do see what you mean.
  21. bluejaysinternNo5
    You make some good points as well! True it will be nice to have possibly the best center fielder in baseball to watch next season. I am excited for that. Here's hoping we see 4 WAR Varsho in 2024.
  22. bluejaysinternNo5
    Honestly I don;t really hate the trade in a vacuum either, although it may appear I do. I think that most of the backlash comes from the fact that Atkins really needed a big obvious win of a trade, not one that might look good in July 2025. I still wouldn't have made the trade personally but I don't think it's horrendous - just mediocre.
  23. bluejaysinternNo5
    You're completely right! I'm not saying you shouldn't trade value or pay up for good players. But those players have to be ACTUAL superstars. To me personally, a defensive specialist with around a league average bat is NOT a guy you want to push all your chips in on. To you, he was! That's completely fair. We'll see in the next 3 years who was right, but I disagree with the move. Personally, I would love to trade Tiedmann this winter for an actual superstar. Just not for Varsho.
  24. bluejaysinternNo5
    I find that looking at players with a Bayesian mindset really helps. You have to think about the probabilities of events occurring based on your prior beliefs, and those prior beliefs may be based on many things. For me, I'm always skeptical of defensive first players who straddle the line of league average at the plate. True, if they are league average they provide tremendous value. But if their bat ever falters they lose tremendous value. A good example might be Andrelton Simmons, who had back to back 4.9 and 4.5 win seasons (age 27 and 28). He played amazing defense and was barely above league average with the bat. In his next 4 seasons he had 2.9 war TOTAL. That's the downside that Varsho has.
  25. bluejaysinternNo5
    Want to make a bet? In 10 years if Varsho's 2022 was his peak, I win. Otherwise, you win. 100 bucks?
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