AMS528

I think it's a little odd to think we'd be able to replicate the value we got from those two signings. It's possible we resign one or both (Ray being much more likely I think). Ray is first in bWAR for pitchers and Semien is first in bWAR for position players (not including Ohtani). The odds of getting even close to that kind of performance from other short term value signings in incredibly incredibly unlikely. Like absurdly so given those signings often do not work out for teams across the league.

Honestly I like little updates on random prospects that may not go anywhere. It's interesting, especially when someone else can chime in and let us know that he's throwing over 100. These thread dies when our best prospects aren't killing it. It's nice when people keep it going with news. You don't always have time to go through every minor league box score day to day.

It has been pretty impressive just how consistent Lopez has been at every stop. Doesn't matter what level you've got him in, his numbers have stayed pretty steady with the bat. That kind of performance may speak to a pretty consistent approach. I was a bit skeptical at the start of the season, and I still am a bit given how he's always hit a lot of groundballs but it's worked for him so far. Playing at five positions this year makes him pretty much a plug and play guy as well. Sucks for Kevin Smith, but the reasoning is there.

I haven't even read the rest of this thread, but how on earth are you even implying that would be the situation for Deshaun Watson. When this dude got massages from like 30 different women, some of whom weren't even real massage therapists. Forgetting everything else, who the hell uses 30 massage therapists as a professional athlete, reaching out by DM each time. Like you've gotta purposefully oblivious to look at that situation and not think it's strange how he's going about getting massages. And that each massage goes basically the same way.

That's at least a 60 grade bat flip. He hit for a sterling .050 in college though so I'm skeptical we'll ever see it in action.

It really doesn't make much sense to wait until September to call up a guy who has clearly performed well enough to get a shot. It's not as if we care about his service time here.

It can be posted once per page so no one ever needs to ask for it.

He just keeps hitting for power. He's got speed, apparently solid in the infield, he's cut down the strikeouts to a reasonable level. Honestly there's really every reason to be optimistic he could turn out to be an everyday player. Recency bias obviously given Biggio has performed in the big leagues, but does Smith have a higher ceiling (and lower floor) given he probably won't suck at 3B defensively and can be pretty comfortably slotted on any given off day?

10-4 76 for 48 against

This is pants on head crazy. My man cannot walk to the mound with having some kind of issue and you want to possibly tie up ten million a year for over a decade??? He hasn't even performed at the MLB level yet. What would even be the basis on which that contract offer would be made? At best you could talk yourself into a Ozzie Albies type extension.

Just an aside, but with that comparison I think you have to compare the degree of difficulty in winning a championship between the two leagues. Last 40 years only 13 NBA teams have won a championship. 23 MLB teams have won in the last 40 years. In MLB it is significantly more likely that your team will eventually win. In the NBA you can luck into a superstar like Jordan or Duncan and with how much those guys can dominate a game really have a leg up on everyone else. Ujiri did not lottery luck into any superstar player like that, and built a team to win a championship that had no lottery picks at all. For me that at least puts him on par with Gillick. And depending on his next rebuild I think he'll be the best Toronto sports exec all time.

My response to that is those things may be true but also should note that the Jays did not get much of a discount for signing a non-star piece to a long extension. I remember even at the time people noted that was a decent chunk of change for a player like Grichuk. Obviously Acuna is a uniquely bad extension, but it's insulting how little of a difference there is in their salaries. I'm quibbling though, maybe they could have saved a couple of million a year on that deal. Ultimately like you said, he's not a complete zero so it's not the end of the world. It's just annoying, like a mosquito.

The Jays have three guys (Vlad, Semien, Springer), playing at basically MVP levels and Bichette a tier below that. Teo is having a solidly above average year as well. With Berrios/Ray/Ryu/Manoah/Matz as a solidly above average rotation it would actually be a tragedy to miss the playoffs this year, and especially knowing they've underperformed in terms of their expected wins thanks to their record in close games. You can't really rely on this level of performance repeating itself. Vlad is amazing but he might not be 180wRC+ amazing next year. Bryce Harper put together one of those ridiculous seasons and then settled into a solid star but has never come close to matching it. Semien may not be around and it's unlikely whoever his replacement is (unless it's like Correa or similar) will get close to what he's done this year. Springer will be one year older. Ryu is already showing signs. I don't doubt that with the prospects out there they'll continue to put out solid teams with consistent playoff chances, but man getting three position players performing at this level in a single year is tough. They're good enough to be in the playoffs. Really have to hope they continue their current level and at least get one game out of it.

A 6/1 K/BB ratio will help that. Before he got traded he had dropped down his strikeout numbers and increased his walks. If nothing else works as well for him he has a pretty elite eye and could be an OBP machine at a corner outfield position

This is a ridiculous display of power hitting from a 19 year old. Prodigious power honestly. Only other guy in the minors doing anything like this at that age is Marco Luciano who's a top ten prospect at this point.

I would absolutely love to see it, but is their any concern about having to use his arm in the outfield on a regular basis and how that would be risky for his pitching? I can see that being a reason to not put him out there, even though his numbers could be insane. I have no doubt he'd be a decent fielder. He's got the speed obviously. If he was in the outfield this season he could be on pace for like an 11-12 WAR season. Literally one of the 20 greatest seasons (by fWAR) all time. Even without those numbers if he finishes the season at the pace he's played it's one of the all time greatest seasons ever.

He's obviously hitting better than he can sustain, but also no one should be surprised that he's hitting much better than he was here. I'm pretty sure the few times I checked his xWOBA was significantly better than his actual results. He was gonna wind up hitting better at some point. He is a pretty decent hitter generally. For 1B you hope for a bit more, but he's better than a decent number of guys other teams are trotting out there. Honestly we also wound up with a decent return given we sold him while he was hitting so badly.

I tend to think the amount of wins a manager changes is pretty minimal, but between a bad bullpen and Montoyo this team has seriously underperformed it's talent level. We've got a real shot at winding up with one of the worst differences between our expected record based on run differential and our actual record. Run differential would have us as a 61-41 team right now.

I guess this deals feels a bit like the Twins got the absolute maximum value they could. They're going to feel pretty good about it about it. This deal (hopefully) won't land in the worst Blue Jays trades list like the Dickey for Syndergaard/D'Arnaud. Berrios is good but they better sign him to an extension. Giving up that many years of control over two guys, for one and half years of a very good but not elite pitcher would not make much sense.

I think it's been mentioned that Martin had a hand injury and has been adjusting hence the lower power so far this year. I don't feel great about this deal, if Martin's power creeps up even a bit, with his approach at the plate he's going to produce a lot of wins out in CF. Obviously no guarantees, but personally I think the Twins are going to wind up with a more wins from this deal than the Jays will out of this deal long term from Martin alone. And that's before adding SWR. Who maybe works out and maybe doesn't. Both of those guys is tough to give up. Martin plus a lesser pitching prospect should have been enough personally. And it's worse when you look at the fact that the Dodgers got Turner and Scherzer from a similar package. I don't see how this isn't an overpay when looking at that deal. Turner is better than Berrios by himself. And the Dodgers got Scherzer as well. And Turner has another controllable year like Berrios. How do you get from that deal to this deal?

I mean a bit, but is it really providing any helpful information in this case. It certainly doesn't include leverage. A 1 WAR starter and a 1 WAR reliever are not puttinf those numbers up in the same innings right? Graveman also has great win probability added numbers naturally. Graveman is having a better year than Liriano was when we dealt him even considering his ERA luck.

He is, but his fWAR is still really good. 2.88 is nothing to scoff at. He's striking out a lot more guys than he used to and he's still keeping the groundball rate as high as he generally has. I mean Liriano had an fWAR of like 4.73 when we traded him. They're getting better than that.

That's a pretty nice projection on a guy having a bounceback year in the minors. It's definitely past the point where he's deserving of a call-up so I wonder if they're committed to making a deal and Smith is the most likely piece to be included in any kind of deal.

I looked at this website and I don't know how accurate it is, but it says there are only two Max Muncy's in the country. http://howmanyofme.com/search/ That's incredibly f***ing weird. That the only two Max Muncy's that exist both play professional based, are both born on August 25th, and were both drafted by the Oakland A's. Just a remarkably unlikely set of coincidences.

I know everything he's doing is absurd, but it becomes laughable when you also consider his speed as well. The fact that he's going to do all the hitting and pitching, but that he could steal over 20 bases as well is beyond comprehension. He's one of the ten fastest guys in the game as well. You literally would not be able to recreate his skills in MLB the Show. Defies belief.