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max silver

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Everything posted by max silver

  1. max silver
    That's not true. Chapman essentially hit like a superstar middle of the order bat for about half of his season (10 weeks total) and struggled for the other 10 weeks.
  2. max silver
    Seems to me like it was a winter bulk gone awry.
  3. max silver
    That's entirely possible but that doesn't somehow mean IKF needs to provide 3 wins to provide value on a $7.5 million contract. Despite lingering on the market in February Matt Chapman will still likely earn upwards of $20 million a season, and he would only be reasonably expected to provide 3-3.5 wins so it doesn't seem particularly reasonable to require IKF to provide similar wins on something like 40% of the salary.
  4. max silver
    Or conversely Kiner Falefa plays well and earns more playing time. Given how much competition there is for the third base position I don't see how he's going to receive unlimited rope if he largely struggles at the plate.
  5. max silver
    A 2 win season for $7.5 million would be perfectly acceptable (only averages $3.75 million per win), the dude isn't being paid $15-20 million after all so the bar for success is accordingly much lower.
  6. max silver
    That seems like an awfully long deal for a guy of Ryu's age and injury history. The dollars are so low that it also seems semi pointless to lengthen to term to lower the AAV as well, but I'm not particularly familiar with the economics of the KBO to comment too specifically about this.
  7. max silver
    Yeah that's a fair point in that Vlad is going to need to prove he's worth that kind of deal, but a 7 year $150 million deal only pays him a shade over $20 million which just feels a bit low if he reaches 150 wRC+ in consecutive seasons. Another key point is how much younger he is going to be when reaching free agency compared to those other guys as well so it's a bit tricky to come up with a prospective contract length.
  8. max silver
    I'd give Vlad that type of deal with no qualms right now.
  9. max silver
    I can't help but think back to JP Ricciardi's comments about how Adam Dunn didn't even like baseball.
  10. max silver
    Nice straw man argument. In real terms since Judge debuted and became a full time player he's only avoided missing major time due to injury in half of the 162 game seasons. He's one of MLB's scariest hitters when he's on the field but has historically missed a lot of time due to injury. This would still be the case if he played for the Blue Jays and not the Yankees.
  11. max silver
    Nate has the raw stuff to be an excellent closer, I think that would classify as a tremendous ceiling. I'm not claiming there's much likelihood of reaching that ceiling at this point and I'd be reasonably happy if he could even become a low leverage reliever at this point.
  12. max silver
    Or maybe everything comes together for him and he leverages his talent to become a fearsome middle of the order bat year in and year out. He was tantalizing close last season and hopefully the better conditioning and mechanical changes bridge the remaining gap.
  13. max silver
    My take on a lot of his struggles was that the opposition could largely ignore the offspeed pitches and zero in on the heater vs Nate tipping his pitches.
  14. max silver
    Is Nate a jobber in your view? He still has a tremendous ceiling, unlike Ryu who likely maxes out as a decent back of the rotation pitcher. They wouldn't even serve the same roles in the first place so I'm failing to see why you are directly comparing the two of them to start with.
  15. max silver
    In an interesting bit of news Nate suspects that he was tipping his pitches last season. I'm not necessarily buying that as a primary reason why he was so ineffective at times due to the suspect command but it certainly wouldn't help things any. https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/nate-pearson-working-on-new-pitch-for-blue-jays
  16. max silver
    Remains to be seen. I'd guess it comes down to whomever has the best spring. I suspect a bit of a platoon between Biggio and Schneider but that is up in the air at this point.
  17. max silver
    The only starter that Ryu would have any chance outperforming would be Manoah if Alek doesn't recapture his previous stuff and/or command. Trading any of the other starting options and replacing them with Ryu would be a step backwards both in expected results and likelihood to avoid the injured list.
  18. max silver
    Steamer projects them as a tossup offensively as each has a 95 wRC+ projection. Rosario had a butcher level defensive season at short stop (-16 DRS/-14 OAA). That's on par with how poorly Bo performed at short stop in 2022 for comparisons sake. It's far from a given his skills would successfully transfer to third base given how steep a defensive decline he's shown the last few seasons.
  19. max silver
    Nate underperformed his statcast expected stats by a decent degree. Add a touch more effective results on top of actual and expected stats lining up to a closer degree and you're likely left with a pretty effective reliever. (Stats are pulled directly from baseballsavant) Slider .320 wOBA .270 xwOBA Curveball .287 wOBA .254 xwOBA ERA 4.85 xERA 3.90
  20. max silver
    It would be imperative to have him throw primarily to Kirk as he's one of MLB's most effective pitch blockers.
  21. max silver
    The Orioles very well may be due for their own regression. Their rotation stands to start the season without two expected members of their rotation with top of the rotation stud suffering a partial UCL tear. The offense was more like the Blue Jays except with better clutch numbers, and they punched far above their expected win total.
  22. max silver
    There's no harm in giving this chance given the incredibly high ceiling he possesses. If he ever puts everything together he could be a high octane closer. Even if he's a step below and becomes a fireballing multiple inning reliever that's a fantastic outcome as well. The chances are obviously less than great but the potential upside makes it well worth giving him another opportunity.
  23. max silver
    Sounds like an epic movie title. If it were made I'd love to see a trailer with narration provided by the epic movie trailer voice guy.
  24. max silver
    I'm fine with whatever direction they go. If Nate can learn an effective splitter it could really help him moving forward. He doesn't quite have the same type of stuff as someone like Felix Bautista (139 stuff+ 94 location+) vs the 127 stuff+ 93 command+ for Nate. Bautista is the template for a high octane fastball/splitter/slider pitcher being an absolute terror for opposition hitters despite featuring similarly poor command to Nate.
  25. max silver
    The team might as well keep giving the guy chances until he runs out of options. This is a bit of a make it or break it season for him as at the very least he needs to show the team that he can provide some effective innings. Otherwise he would need to make the team out of spring training or would face the waiver wire. Given the premium stuff he'd be certain to be picked up by someone hoping to turn him around. It would be a nightmare scenario to lose the dude for nothing and see him develop into a closer for someone else.
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