nmrch

really? After posting wRC+'s of 97,93 and 101 in the last three years he's being projected for 110 next season which seems awfully generous to me.

Graveman is projected for 0.3 WAR in a 104 innings, even if he miraculously throws 200 innings it won't bridge the difference between Lawrie and Donaldson.

Here's an interesting graph i came up with poking around on Excel trying to figure out how to properly project runs. I didn't think speed has this much of an effect on the rates at which players score runs. There's probably an even bigger effect if you take out doubles http://s4.postimg.org/swug6uxwd/Untitled.jpg

I'd be in for facing any of you guys for a dollar everynight, the rest of my meager bankroll i'll use it in the public leagues. Playing just for bragging rights would be great too, we can use this thread to post lineups (after the lineup deadline for those of us who are not as generous as Jfas) and keep track of results. On that note, i'm thinking of using the three most optimal lineups(with different %es of bankroll invested based on the most efficient to the third most efficient) instead of just one to reduce variance. For all the veterans out there, that makes sense right? I'll find my true win rate faster in exchange for slightly fewer wins, if my model is crap i'll find out sooner and then i can either fix it or get out of the game.

Or it could also lead you to consistently play suboptimal lineups when you put your finger on the model. To be fair this will be the first season i'm gonna be relying completely on my model and i'm pretty new to DFS overall, so you your experience might be saying something.

He hasn't been that bad in the big leagues even in a small sample size, not that its a reason to ignore his minor league record, last season he was actually quite good,

How are you taking previous framing out of projections?

Pillar is projected to be a top ~5 4th outfielder and he's a borderline starter, the hate against him on this forum and among Jays fans in general seems to be personal but i have no idea why.

anyone else interesting pitching today?

oh, i get what you're saying and its an excellent point. I just completely ignore what steamer and zips say about rbi's and runs and start from scratch, there's no threat of overestimating or underestimating guys. I start with a theoretical league average rate of scorings runs and getting rbi's per plate appearance and then adjust them accordingly trying to account for a number of factors.

Sorry i'm being unclear on this, i only use my own calculations to projects runs, rbi's and plate appearances. I still use Steamer and Zips for rate stats, i just think the regression analysis which is what those systems do to project counting stats like runs and rbi's is too crude, you gotta take into account lineup order and composition.

I agree with this but lineups change from year to year, player could be shifted around season to season and they could have new teammates, and this could have a significant impact on runs and rbi's. I just find the the projections to be too crude when it comes to forecasting runs and rbi's, so i'm using a combination of individual factors and teammate factors to predict runs and rbi's on a given day.

I adjust the wOBA's for those factors, i run my program each day after the lineups are posting so its not hard to adjust the daily projections based on lineup order.

Yeah i'll probably just hardcode the ID's on my master list for guys with the same names, not worth spending too much time on it. Right now i'm working on automating weather and vegas line data, i don't know if the latter is worth it or its easier to manually load the gamelines

Would you be interested in sharing your formula for runs projected and RBI's, the problem i have is mine are somewhat instinct based without a lot of concrete data backing it up. For runs, my weighing is 55% wOBA 15% speedscore 30% lineup position and surrounding teammates wOBA similar methodology for RBI's but i also include speed scores of surrounding teammates.

I appreciate the insight from both you and JFas, i won't be using his lineups but it'll help cross check my methodology because i'm pretty much doing the same thing as him. I'm also using my own formula to project Runs and RBI instead of using the projections. Since you guys are so generous with your secrets, allow me to add my insight. I wrote a program that scrapes data from Fangraphs, i only have to feed it a list of fangraphs ID's and it spits out data on the players including projections, splits or anything else i need. i'm doing this with another scraping program, it gets the players names and matches it to a master list of fangraphs id's i have and then i feed the lineups just in the form of player id's to my other program. One problem i'm running into is players with the same names, i'm still working on fixing that. I plan on running my program 30 minutes before the first game, this should ensure all the lineups are in on normal days. Weekends are a problem with the afternoon games but the DFS sites usually skip those games anyway.

Miller Park is just as homer friendly as the RC, if not more so. Estrada has a chance to surprise people, it'll come down to whether or not he can stop the velocity loss on his fastball, whether that's due to aging or the pile of injuries he's dealt with we don't know.

First of all Norris doesn't owe the Jays anything, he can decide to quit Baseball today and still get to keep his bonus money on clean moral grounds. Second, as the article describes over and over again he's really into the outdoors and its a core part of his identity, that can't be anything but a positive sign when it comes to fitness, the risks of injury with his lifestyle are minor to non existent.

Just to add to the previous comment about Norris, doesn't sound like a RWNJ to me http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12420393/top-blue-jays-prospect-daniel-norris-lives-own-code

I think you'll be surprised by the answer. He does seem to be a deeply religious man but he shouldn't be pigenholed, he's not the typical good ole boy from the south from what i've read about him. He has this openness to experience trait that you don't usually see in conservative religious people, i would be atleast somewhat surpised if he shared the same beliefs as he Daniel Murphys of the world.

Java, and Jsoup for the scraping. That part was pretty but i'm not an experienced programmer and have little database experience, so building the database is going pretty slowly.

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wow, this is along the lines of what i'm doing, my model will account for a couple of more factors but you nailed the basic structure. Automating it though has proven to be much more challenging than it sounds.

Anyone want to start a 2015 mlb dfs thread? We can share ideas, strategies and general insight I'm gonna be going all out this season, i just started building my program, my goal is to have everything as automated as possible which would cut down on the both the time i would have to spend in season and also the error resulting from human biases. I'm only about 15% of the way through and have almost exactly a month to finish this, gonna have to find a ton of free time to work out, it will be close but it should be ready for the first full slate of games which i believe is on April 6th. I'll focus exclusively on fanduel 50/50, they're the simplest and they're the best way to measure whether my model is on point at all

Its amazing how much sympathy Josh Hamilton gets compared to the average athlete struggling with substance abuse problems, not saying he doesn't deserve it but it would be nice if other athletes struggling got the same support, wonder what's different about him.