nmrch

BTW, Jace Peterson doesn't seem have SS eligibility on Fanduel, he's listed at 2b

JFas or anyone else, can you guys point me in the right direction with this? So my model is at the point where i have all rate stats calculated, with Home/away factors, Park factors and pitcher/hitter interactive factors accounted for. I'm having trouble calculating how many PA/TBF will occur for each pitcher vs team matchup, obviously the most important factor is the wOBA or FIP for that matchup but how do you translate that to PA's and TBF? Lets just say for simplicity sake the hitters only face the SP, i can obviously adopt that model to the hitters vs bullpen calculations where needed.

oh, i forgot the lineups weren't in yet, the Rangers one just came in. I only asked because i thought i could get a couple of entries in for the "after hours" games and i want to test out the optimizer on fantasy cruncher too, see if its worth it.

Would you mind sharing your projected points for those three games?

JFas, your evening projection is based on the three games at 7pm and later right?

Awesome! When you get the chance please post the projected point totals for the afternoon games, and i'll get the optimum lineups up!

JFas, you've noticed that your lineups violate the 4 player per team rule right? Is that a bug being caused by very few lineups being in?

I didn't have time to write an optimizer yet so i signed up for the Optimizer tool at Fantasy Cruncher, you can upload custom projections and it works pretty well. They have a 7 day "free" trial and i might end up paying for the month until i can find the time to write my optimizer. If you want to post projected point totals here, i can filter out the games and post the optimum lineups for everyone.

Are you gonna be playing the afternoon games on Fanduel? There obviously would be guaranteed lineups in that case, i might skip the all day contests and go for that.

that would be awesome, thank you very much

That's what Baseball press does too, i use it for my program and i think JFas does too, it would just be nice if there was a good source that makes best guesses before they're officially in.

JFas, what does your model do with late games? Your all day projection just ignores the games from which the lineups aren't in yet right? For 1pm starts, even on opening day i don't see the late lineups being declared officially before 1 pm. Todays lineup for the season opener at 8.30pm was sent out like an hour ago at ~3pm. If i might make a request can you add a column to your projections that say which game exactly are included in them as they get updated throughout the day, if that's not too much of a hassle. FOr my projection, I'm looking for a different lineup source than BaseballPress, one that makes best guesses but i can't find a good one, it sucks because doing them manually and formatting them for my program is a pain in the ass.

who's gotta a good stream?

This was nice, i now don't have to worry about whether i was doing the proper regressions, some wasted efforts but i also now only have to scrape a 1000 pages a day instead of 3000. Cuts down my program running time from 6 minutes to ~90 seconds and my IP's less likely to be banned by the admin over at Fangraphs.

Osuna's going to be okay, imo, he's gotta a major league slider and a feel for pitching that is advanced. He only threw ~30 innings last year, i'm not sure logging 65-100 as either a conventional reliever or a multi inning reliever will really hurt his development. The controlability factor sucks because i think he'll be a star but i'm also looking forward to watching him.

LTR and JFas, this might be a stupid question to ask and should tell you how new i am to this but am i wrong in assuming that if a LHH has more than 1000 PA's against LHP (or 1500 if want to use that as a threshold like some do apparently) than we don't have have to regress his splits. Same with 2200 PA(or whatever threshold you use) for RHH vs LHP and 600 PA's for switch hitters vs LHP. I would also appreciate it if you guys could shed light on what you guys are doing with switch hitters in general including what constant you're using.

At second look i noticed that Aoki has both a higher BB rate and a higher ISO against righties than lefties, the 110 point difference in BABIP is almost entirely driving those splits, not only does accounting for BABIP erase those reverse platoon splits but it would make him a conventional left handed hitter. But your bigger point is interesting, i'm pretty new to dealing with regressing splits so i'll defer to your knowledge. You're right that the whole point behind regressing splits is the assumption that all lefties do worse against LHP than RHP and all righties do worse against RHP than LHP and it leaves out the outliers. Yeah i've noticed that on the park factors page on fangraphs, but i question the validity because what explains these results? Thinner air doesn't because although Colorado makes sense why are Pittsburgh and Detroit showing up at the bottom and there doesn't seem to be a relationship with temperature or humidity either, there's a mix of cold weather and warm weather cities at the top and the bottom. But the results are statistically significant so there's some variable or a combination of variables that explain this, so maybe i should incorporate them

For platoon splits i do them on an individual basis and it works great and there are a few guys with neutral or negative platoon splits and i'm applying my numbers according to that. You mention Nori Aoki and my regression calculations don't see him with reverse platoon splits and if you look at how much BABIP is driving the difference in numbers against lefties versus righties it makes sense. For Ichiro, he has ~2500 PA's against lefties, that's enough to take his platoon splits at face value. The thing with home vs away numbers for individual players is you gotta separate park factors, i don't know how you do with that hitters because K to BB rates(which are theoretically stable from park to park) aren't that important for hitters. So for now i'm just applying home vs away league average differences.

hey thanks, its helpful and i know about this stuff, i'm just unsure about applying them as is to platoon splits. Like are 60 PA's really enough for a platoon difference in K rate to be statistically significant?

Also are you guys using standard league average splits when adjusting for home vs road instead of looking at home vs road splits for individual players and trying to regress them? That would obviously make sense since it would be a lot of work to separate possible park factors from differences in home vs road splits. Using league average differences obviously has its own problems, we'd be overestimating or underestimating the outliers, guys who for some reason perform worse at home and better on the road.

JFas, what kind of thresholds are you using to regress platoon splits on things like hitter K%, hitter ISO, pitcher K%, pitcher BB%, pitcher GB% etc My overall regressed splits look good(wOBA for hitters and xFIP for pitchers) but i'm just wondering what thresholds to use for the sub components.

But how many players on MLB lineups won't have Depth Charts projections though?

I don't like to say things like this but Osuna will be a star, the stuff's great and everything but he's got that feel for pitching that you can't teach, i like him more than Castro, or even Norris for that matter.

That was filthy

what happened to Osuna? Is he still scheduled to pitch?