nmrch
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Everything posted by nmrch
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Just FYI JFas, your model hasn't been updated since 11.30, is that intentional or a glitch?
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9/10 up for the "early" game on FD
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looking good for me, although my offence only got in the black after the tulo double, they're now contributing a grand total of 2 points. I wonder what the odds are of not cashing despite your pitcher putting up a 20 point night.
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hey, thanks -
can someone share a link to a good stream?
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and also ZiPS and FGDC violate the 4 player per team rule
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2 rbi double, still need more though, it'll be close like last night
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JFas, can you post the link for your form again, i'll bookmark it this time. I'll fill out last nights games and todays' later in the evening. thanks again for everything you do!
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Interesting night, losing night overall but cashed in the majority of leagues because most of the wins came in the 1 dollar 100 player leagues and the losses came in the higher stakes 20 and 40 player league. FInished 11/20 and 21/40 in a bunch of leagues.
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man, its getting hard to see how we cash even with Norris' W
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holy crap that is some awesome luck, we're look good today as long as Norris doesn't s*** the bed.
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why concerns about his velocity? I'm using your FGDC lineup today btw, would have been nice to diversify a bit with Masterson, i might still do it
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JFas, any chance of a lineup for the evening games on fanduel, with the 6.40 game included? I missed the afternoon games, would love to get a couple of lineups in, if changing your code is too much of a hassle, can you post the projected points from those three games?
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JFas's Zips lineup is a lock to cash, with Carrasco doing well and Lind having a big game. FGDC and Steamer need McCarthy to have a pretty decent game but they're looking okay, especially FGDC
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can i ask you how you calculate IP and BF and what kind of adjustments you make based on opposing lineup strength? BTW, that chart was really helpful, shows me i'm on the right track Here are my (unadjusted for lineup spot) wOBA's against Sanchez and Arrieta 0.28274227366519 0.29028162333516 and this is without accounting for the pitchers spot, so i'm in the right neighbourhood when it comes to differentiating between pitchers but there's something in my calculations that tilting the numbers in favor of the pitchers.
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yes, sorry for not mentioning that
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Thank you, that makes sense. A follow up question, are you doing anything to adjust a pitchers expected IP based on lineup strength because one would assume that a pitcher is likely to pitch more innings against a weak lineup and vice versa. Also in general, are you using projected IP/projected starts to forecast how many innings a pitcher is likely to pitch per start? Or do you have a more sophisticated algorithm for that? I want to nail this down because a hitters PA per game are pretty stable, the value of pitchers on the other hand can swing pretty wildly if you change their projected IP by even one inning
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JFas, here's your data point. #1 Projection System used: ZiPS Points: 38.41 Finish position: between 16-25, median 20 Cashing point: ~28 #2 Projection System used: FGDC Points: 47.25 Finish position: between 8-15, median 10 Cashing point: ~28 edit: i play on Fanduel BTW
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Yup, i'll be following JFas' picks completely for the next few days until my model is ready, and then i'll start testing my projections.
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lol its Garza's turn to s*** the bed, just a bad night overall
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2 more clean innings with 2 more K's and we're back in business
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i know, i said break even - rake
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I'm glad i diversified a bit with Garza but with Karns s***ing the bed, the best i can hope for is a break even - rake night
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don't know how long it takes to get on Baseball press though edit: its up on Baseball press!
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