nmrch
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Everything posted by nmrch
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If knowing things is having the kind of opinions you have than i am proud to be ignorant.
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The stats don't tell a comforting story is what you really mean. I'm not necessarily faulting you or anyone for this, homerism is understandable but to attack others because they can actually evaluate things objectively while still being a fan is ********.
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Stats are misleading because its "our" guy and because we're invested in him, that's the argument, end of story!
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Its one thing i've learned over the years, there is no argument that will defeat homerism, its just not possible. People will always have a problem with objectively evaluating "our" guys and magical reasons for why bad results don't matter will always pop up. How long did it take for people to admit that Deck McGuire was f***ing useless, or Chad Jenkins, some still think he's worth something.
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Boxcar and all the other Hoffman skeptics are right, f*** Kiley McDaniel and all these useless f***ing scouts, they care more about a narrative than the facts. There is absolutely no excuse for Hoffman's horrible numbers, we can sit there and pretend like performance doesn't matter just because its our guy but things don't work that way. No one is saying Hoffman is a bust yet but results matter, always! This nonsense about secondary pitches or changing mechanics is just that, ultimately the game is about getting outs and so far Hoffman is not good at it.
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whatever you may think of Dave Stewart he's not the one running things, its La Russa
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And why aren't we blaming Scherzer for going that far inside, he would gotten pretty much any call, all of this is on him and the catcher. If he didn't care about risking a HBP and ruining the perfect game when he went inside why should Tabata?
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So you think its on the hitters to go out of their way to preserve a perfect game, that's just crazy to me. Tabata did nothing abnormal, he dropped his elbow in an attempt to get out of the way, i can see why people would think he dropped it to get hit but that's a very common reaction to that pitch.
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you say "leaning in"(and its actually leaning down if anything) others would say he's getting elbow out of the way. There's plenty of HBP that occur as a hitter is trying to get away from the ball. Leaning in means moving towards plate and getting line with the path of the baseball, where does he do that.
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whatever, its just crazy that people are blaming the hitter for doing what hitters always do. If you think Tabata did something drastically different from what hitters do on a pitch like that then you don't know s*** about baseball.
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I was watching, there's no leaning in, his movements are no different than how the average batter reacts on a pitch up and in. Blame Scherzer for going inside with a perfect game on the line, he should have known the risk of HBP when he decided to do that.
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Ever hitter "leans in" when the pitch is being delivered, that's all he did, he didn't significant alter his movements to get his elbow in line with the path of the ball. He kind of leaned down but that's a natural reaction to the ball coming up and in at you
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bush league for getting hit? Come on People who say he leaned in have no idea what it means
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People are also vastly overestimating the first year back from TJ effect, the differences tend to be marginal, its not a night and day thing. When you cut Hoffman slack for it, his numbers are extremely troubling. Even if you double the first year back from TJ effect and subtract that from his current numbers, he's still not average. Season after returning ERA HR/9 BB/9 K/9 One 5.80% 7.20% 5.00% -4.40% Two 0.60% -2.00% 0.70% -1.60% Three 0.20% 2.10% 0.70% -0.90% http://www.hardballtimes.com/a-primer-on-tommy-john-surgery-part-one/
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No, this is just homerism, the lack of K's is concerning even if you account for TJS and lack of experience, the latter is especially nonsensical given he's supposed to be an advanced college pitcher. Like someone said before the first year back from TJS does tend to be rough but its almost always command that suffers, not the swing and miss part. I don't know who it was someone in this very thread brought up Hoffman's relatively unimpressive K rate in college as evidence that he shouldn't be hyped up as much as he is, he/she is proving to be right.
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don't forget the unspeakably ugly ratios. Yes he is young for that level but Urena's numbers are mediocre after accounting for that.
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Hoffman has one walk in 14 and 1/3 innings, so that's nice but you want to see such a hyped up prospect put up wicked strikeout numbers and we haven't seen that, just 10 K's
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never mind, we're kind of in a high when it comes to Alford. Trust me, i'm excited about Alford and i never thought i'd be after those ugly numbers in Australia, i just think he's got a lot of developing to do.
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Fair enough, i can accept that BABIP's among top prospects will be in the range you describe. But you'd have to admit that there's a tremendous amount of luck going on with .465 , Alford's numbers(apart from the ridiculous walk rate) would look problematic even if he was BABIP'ing .400
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I actually don't know the research on this but i would be surprised if minor league BABIP and its distribution is drastically different from the major leagues. Maybe a few points higher but even .400 should be an extreme BABIP. Alford's BABIP is 20+ points higher than the next guy in the MWL, it would be 50+ points higher than the league leader in the SAL. Alford's average would look extremely mediocre if he was BABIP'ing even .400 and couple that with the strikeouts its clear he has problems with making contact regardless of where his average is right now.
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That's with a .465 BABIP, he's getting ridiculously lucky and combine that with the lack of homeruns, there are legitimate concerns that he's not making hard contact. The eye is elite and it can cover up a lot of flaws but he's gotta start driving the ball.
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Strikeouts and Walks don't have a mutually exclusive relationship BTW, high walk guys by definition also tend to strikeout a lot. Part of it is you gotta get in deep counts to draw walks which also lead to strikeouts and part of it is guys who strikeout a lot sometimes tend to hit for power and in turn get walked a lot. That's what's so interesting about Alford, he's drawing an absurd amount of walks for a guy hitting for so little power.
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AA is a f***ing idiot but i highly doubt he made a promise like that. I'm pretty sure Alford just saw that he didn't have a future in football and the Jays might have given him small financial incentive but no way did they make him a promise of fast tracking him the way you describe. But its so absurd to even think about Alford competing for a big league job next spring, that's worse than the Miguel Castro thing. You got a minor league manager saying he doesn't even know how to make throws from the outfield yet and he has some problems with strikeouts and hitting for power, we shouldn't be thinking about a potential big league future. That's atleast 2-3 years away.
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There's no need to rush Alford, i think a promotion for the last third of the minor league season might be appropriate but let him dominate MWL pitching even further for now
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Alford 2-3, both singles, 2 BB and 1 K. Common Anthony, its time start going deep, everything else is impressive, even the K's are down to a more manageable level but we need some homeruns Jansen and Urena went deep, Jansen's gonna end up with a very impressive offensive season, the kind you can't ignore regardless of when he was drafted. There's literally nothing flawed about him offensively, he's got power, he doesn't strike out and draws a lot of walks. Urena has Kevin Pillar level patience at the plate and its hurting his overall numbers but 6 homeruns in a 155 PA's means something. And he's the 2nd youngest player in the league
