I would say that biggest key is going to be, production from Morales replacing Encarnacion. We know we wont get anything out of the Smoak position anyways, So essentially Morales has to go a long way making up the gap. The second would be the tendor bullpen, and the third would be Tulo, donaldson Martin Health.
As long as Tulo, Donaldson and Martin are heatlhy its hard to see this team not competing for a Wild Card.