metafour
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Everything posted by metafour
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Actually, the fact is that Morales posted elite batted ball metrics last season, yet somehow that contact didn't result in base hits. His 41.1% hard contact rate was 5th highest in all of baseball...tied with Miguel Cabrera and Jose Bautista. He hit the ball harder than Encarnacion and posted a superior contact rate on pitches inside the strike zone as well. This reminds me of the JA Happ signing wherein we were "overpaying big time" despite the fact that hard analysis actually showed that JA Happ's stuff got better across the board the ~half season prior to us signing him. In Morales' case, his "average hitting" this past season doesn't even make sense given what he was actually doing at the plate.
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Final List: BJMB Top 15 Prospects, as of November 2016
metafour replied to King's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Huh? -
You think that his upside is as a 15 HR hitter who posts virtually the same ISO Power rating as Francisco Lindor? That sounds like Rowdy Tellez to you? Just because he hits the ball to all fields; doesn't mean that he is Billy Butler (who is the exact description of what a slap hitting DH/1B looks like). Billy Butler is 260 pounds and posts power numbers similar to half the middle infielders in baseball. His BABIP is abnormally high despite the fact that he cant run at all. He achieves this by...slap-hitting and selling out for contact. This isn't even a knock on Butler who during his prime was a very good contact hitter; I'm just not sure how you can conclude that Tellez turns into this TYPE of hitter just because they had similar AA stats. Butler did have power coming out of HS and going through the minors; but it seemed that once he hit the MLB he prioritized a level swing over driving the baseball. Tellez hasn't done anything to suggest that he will look to emulate that hitting strategy.
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I think that you are stat-line scouting. Butler has spent the majority of his MLB career as a contact-oriented slap hitter; which is why he ranks near the top in BA, BABIP, LD%, K%, etc. among qualified DH and near the bottom in ISO, Pull%, etc. I guess that it is possible that Tellez turns into Butler; but he hasn't really shown anything to suggest that he's going to come up and turn into a 6'4 240+ pound hitter who sprays line drives all over the field. Billy Butler is a career .320 BABIP hitter despite the fact that he possesses zero athleticism.
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His body doesn't even look bad. The "Tellez body" thing has quickly approached "Osuna body" hysteria wherein early worry about a "bad body" becomes gospel even after it stops being an actual concern. You can look at all sorts of footage of Tellez from this year; his body looks no different than ~95% of MLB 1B/DH types. He's clearly not very athletic, but it really has nothing to do with his body.
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Billy Butler never had much power, so I don't really get this comparison at all.
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Brett Cecil has made ~$10.6 million over 9 years since signing. He isn't giving anyone a discount, nor is he going to give a rats ass if the best offer comes from a team that is "contending".
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Did you seriously just ask that?
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Why would we lose our pick for re-signing our own free agent player.....?
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I'm talking about your hypothetical wherein he takes a one year deal to try and land some mega contract the next year...at which point he will be 37. No one is signing a 37 year old who can't play defense to a huge contract, even if he "rebuilds his value" next season. Bautista will take his guaranteed ~3 year deal right now; I don't care how "cocky" he is. He's not an idiot.
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Rebuild value? He is 37 years old next year. 37. Thirty Seven. What do you even think is going to happen even if he has a better year? Some team signs him for $100+ million? No chance, period.
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You guys are crazy. Thew Bautista/Texas thing would blow over in a minute if he signed there. Its all a bunch of guys with huge ego's: guess what, you 'hate' each other when you are on different teams, but the feeling flips when you're playing on the same team. Its sports.
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Predict the Blue Jays free agent signings
metafour replied to Dr. Dinger's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Were you the guy from the Moneyball movie? "We need to replace 'X' HRs and 'Y' RBIs!". -
Jose Fernandez killed in boating accident
metafour replied to Dr. Dinger's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
You smell ********? This was always the most obvious conclusion to what happened that night. -
Kimbrel is not better than Osuna.
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How was Cabrera a "came out of nowhere" surprise? He was worth 3.6, 2.6, 0.3, 1.6, and 2.2 wins the five years prior to the Mets signing him. Apart from that one 0.3 WAR season, he's been a consistent ~2-3 win SS, and he's a guy who's good for a consistent 140+ games a season. Its not like he was 40 when they signed him either; he was just turning 30 and therefore it wasn't ridiculous at all to assume that he had more performance left in him. That just looks like smart decision making, not "luck".
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Like I said; I don't even agree with this. The "process" of the trade was covering up a mistake (Reyes) by throwing MORE assets and MORE money on a BAND-AID that in short time was likely just going to turn into another mistake himself (Tulowitzki). It was a band-aid solution , and just like a band-aid, its probably going to hurt a bit once we get to the point wherein its time to yank it off.
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So 1.6 and 2.2 WAR as a younger player gets you $18.5 million, but I'm supposed to believe that 2.3 and 2.8 WAR is going to net the older player $74 million on the open market?
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Who cares? They are a rebuilding team and knew what they were acquiring. Not only did they get two top pitching prospects, but they actually LOWERED their future financial commitment as Reyes was owed much less money than Tulowitzki. Its not like Tulo's 2-3 WAR value would make any difference on their non-contending team. In reality, getting rid of Tulo allowed them to play Trevor Story at SS this season. Story actually put the exact same WAR as Tulo...in 30 less games LOL.
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...the Mets found that player for $18.5 million.
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Except that Tulowitzki looked like utter crap in his last half season with the Rockies, which kind of kills the entire claim that we were getting "one of the best players in the game". His 1.5 seasons so far in Toronto have confirmed that he is a shell of his former self; its almost as if Colorado knew what it was doing by dumping him while people still thought that he was a 5 win player. I'm not going to get into Hoffman/Castro. Its not like our best starter isn't a guy who had "stuff" yet couldn't strike batters out in the minor leagues. Like I said, I feel pretty confident that those two could have easily become high end relievers in the least. Imagine rolling out Castro/Hoffman/Osuna out of the bullpen for the foreseeable future.
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You think he'd get $74 million over his age 32-36 years after 2.3 and 2.8 WAR seasons the last two seasons? That seems like an awful lot for an injury-prone ageing player who is almost all-defense now.
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And its not like we just flipped the contracts of Reyes/Tulo; we gave up two top pitching prospects to get it done. Hoffman and Castro probably end up disappointing just like every pitching prospect ever in Colorado, but those two could have easily been elite relief options for us even if they never worked out as starters. Colorado literally used up all of Tulo's prime years, paid him a huge contract to keep him there, and then got another team to pay two top prospects to eat the ugly back end of his contract wherein he's no longer an elite player, all for the price of eating some of Reyes' contract, which wasn't even a big deal considering that they are rebuilding and therefore they can afford to pay a guy to just leave.
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He's an asset in that we just wound the clock back a few years on Jose Reyes; albeit he's not as useless from an attitude standpoint. A year or two from now this could easily be a situation wherein you're sitting on ~2+ years of extremely overpaid (while under performing) Troy Tulowitzki, which is exactly where we were sitting with Reyes. Asdrubal Cabrera was a better SS this season and he signed with the Mets for 2 years, $18.5 million last offseason.
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Exactly. This isn't an "oh, we're doing this so that we can build our own super-great baseball academies" situation; its a "we want to reduce owner costs so we're killing the market, but don't worry, we're building our own academies so there is really nothing to get upset about".