BlueRocky

BA draft chat:

What if he falls short of those projections? Can he still stick?

I think out of the underslot options at 42, this guy has one of the higher upsides. I’m thinking he signs @ 1.2-1.5 M which would save 300-500k for Martin. Earlier this season, Baseball America had CJ Van Eyk mocked around late-teens to mid-20s. He’s a first round talent. And good pitch metrics for the analysts.

High spin-rate fastball with plus curveball. Third pitch is changeup, fourth pitch slider.

Ian Kennedy comp by MLB Network.. C.J. Van Eyk was considered a late first round pick not too long ago. Had some injury concerns, but if healthy he’s a first round talent. He didn’t get a full season to prove his health. Probably a slight under-slot deal. Outstanding curveball, sits 94-95, T97, four pitch mix, high spin-rate guy. This suggests to me they’ve got Martin’s bonus situation figured out.

2020 in Dunedin? Buffalo another option.

Tanner Witt sounds very much a Blue Jays pick. I want Cole Wilcox but don’t think we have the pool $, he’s a draft-eligible sophomores looking for first round money. What they do at 42 will be very telling of the bonus situation with Martin. If we go way underslot here, we are probably safe for a normal draft with 77, 106, 136. But this could indicate the Jays are moderately concerned about not having enough $ to get the deal done, as you’re giving up the opportunity at a real talent at 42. If we go over-slot and get a legit guy, we might be punting the next three picks. This is probably the way they go if there’s clarity about the bonus situation with Martin. We’ll get two legit guys and the rest will be lottery tickets (including the 20k guys). 5% overslot money = $485,825 Pick 42 = $1,771,100 Pick 77 + 106 + 136 = $1,764,700

Baltimore is playing some 4D chess and outsmarting the industry

He will get more than 2/3 of the pool. The slot value is already 64%. I’m guessing closer 3/4 or 75%

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2020-mlb-draft-first-round-analysis-four-storylines-that-stood-out/

That’s awesome, I hear he’s got some serious raw power and a great athlete. Sounds like a real upside player. I personally like Owen Caissie more than Calabrese, if we had to choose one Canadian kid this draft. But there’s definitely a lot of talent coming up locally.

Just for fun hypothetical scenario of trading pick 5 for pick 2 in past MLB drafts, here are a couple interesting ones: 1999: BJ Garbe (0 WAR) for Josh Beckett (35.7 WAR) 2001: Mark Teixeira (50.6 WAR) for Mark Prior (16.6 WAR) 2002: Clint Everts (0 WAR) for Melvin Upton jr (16.8 WAR) 2003: Chris Lubankski (0 WAR) for Rickie Weeks (11.5 WAR) 2004: Mark Rogers (1.1 WAR) for Justin Verlander (71.6 WAR) 2005: Ryan Braun (46.8 WAR) for Alex Gordon (35 WAR) 2007: Matt Wieters (18.2 WAR) for Mike Moustakas (15.3 WAR) 2008: Buster Posey (42.8 WAR) for Pedro Alvarez (5.1 WAR) 2012: Kyle Zimmer (-0.7 WAR) for Byron Buxton (9.8 WAR) 2013: Clint Frazier (-0.2 WAR) for Kris Bryant (23.9 WAR) 2015: Kyle Tucker (0 WAR) for Alex Bregman (22.4 WAR

Probably 2nd to 3rd round talent. But yeah, it really depends how much $ they need for Austin Martin. It’s almost like trading pick #5 and #42 for #2 and #75. Most teams would do that right?

Jim Bowden talks about the Blue Jays pick:

Who do you think it is? I mentioned there’s a huge difference between 5th and 6th pick. That one extra loss is the difference when they’re targeting very specific names that could be taken ahead of them.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2020-mlb-mock-draft-heres-every-prediction-weve-made-this-year/ A look at all of Baseball America’s mocks leading up to the draft I started posting about Zac Veen and Max Meyer between ver 1.0 and 2.0, at the time I thought it would be a slight reach but if they had a full season they would’ve gone higher. Funny enough the closest mock to the actual thing was ver 5.0 when they explored Zac Veen as the Orioles underslot pick, and cited Kjerstad as a possibility. But pretty much nobody saw Meyer to Marlins coming. The only time it was mentioned seriously was this morning from Keith Law that Meyer was on their short list for Miami.

The talent in this crop available in second round is very deep. There’s a bunch more names than this. I have a hard time seeing either Jared Kelley or JT Ginn sign without a very lucrative offer, we don’t have the money to pull this trigger. Even Daxton Fulton would require a significant bonus or he’ll choose college. But this is all just speculation. If we had to pick from who was left: Pitchers: Cole Wilcox > Jared Jones = Tanner Witt = Chris McMahon > Masyn Winn = Clayton Beeter = Cole Henry > Alex Santos = Carson Montgomery > Connor Phillips > CJ Van Eyk I could change my mind but that’s my current preference, don’t mind the order too much I didn’t thinking too hard about it. I don’t know some of these guys well enough to be convicted into one name, but heard good things about all the guys above to some degree. Position players: Casey Martin > Dillon Dingler > Enrique Bradfield = Daniel Cabrera > Chase Davis = Zach DeLoach > Kevin Parada > Petey Halpin > Blaze Jordan > Freddy Zamora = Anthony Servideo = Yohandy Morales

Blue Jays media panel instant reaction:

Yes the Blue Jays can go 5% over their $9,716,500

Mike saw the 1 in 14,000,605 futures & hit the nail on predicting Austin Martin to the Blue Jays on last week’s pre-draft podcast.

I think 5 PM ET

I’m thinking pitcher with the 42nd pick, based on how the first round is developing.

Plus to above-average tools across the board, most advanced college hitter in the draft, above-average power, threat to steal bases, plus defender at multiple positions, high IQ. Extremely patient at the plate with plus barrel control, plus plate discipline. Very competitive player, driven. In game he's got that same charisma you see in Bo Bichette, he just looks like a star player. It's about as can't miss as you can get in a college hitter. He bat leadoff for Vanderbilt in their college world series championship run, can also be a #2 hitter. Arm strength can still be improved, the frame has upside and not fully filled out. I don't even have a proper comp for him. When he was at 3B last year I comp'd him to a young Nolan Arenado. It's not a perfect comp, but his talent is off the charts. As a centerfielder, I'll have to think about it.