BlueRocky

I agree. Keep this thread for mock drafts, scouting reports and articles.

There’s like a 70% chance the Royals will take Zac Veen, and Max Meyer would be the pick. That’s the sense I’m getting heading into the draft. But that’s assuming pick 1-3 goes chalk. Everyone ready for draft day?

Continued draft chat from yesterday

I'd tried to answer this earnestly, but honestly my personal rank doesn't matter. They're going to take their guy tomorrow, and whoever they take I'll follow closely in the minors just as I did with Bichette, Pearson, Groshans, etc. If you go back and just glance over my posts, the guys I like are pretty obvious. Or just catch the pod Boxy posted, we literally went on for 2 hours talking about the draft.

Whoever they're taking tomorrow, they really like their choice. Positional need is completely irrelevant in the decision making process and they put a significant premium on high character profiles.

Blue Jays Cental @ home with Jamie, Shi, Ben, and Jim Callis: https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/will-blue-jays-draft-highest-pick-since-1997-blue-jays-central-home/ Arash, Shi, and Ben talk draft: https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/2020-mlb-draft-preview-instant-analysis/

Kyle Glaser stepped in for Collazo in the draft chat. I guess they don’t have a lot of confidence in Rob Manfred’s “good faith”

Both Kiley McDaniels and Carlos Collazo has made this comp on their mock drafts. Comps are never going to be perfect, they're usually inaccurate. It's just there for people to compare their build and tool package. Kinda like an elevator pitch for people that don’t follow these guys. Meyer's delivery actually has some similarities to Buehler, but it's not just that. He checks a few boxes in this comp like: - upper 90s fastball (sits 96-97, touches 100) - Meyer's slider has been clocked 87-91, T92-93. Buehler throws both a slider (87) and a cutter (92), there's a lot of horizontal movement in the way he gets guys out. But Buehler has a curveball to round out his arsenal, Meyer doesn’t. - both are very athletic and don't have monster-sized frames Meyer 6-0 to 6-1, 185-200. Buehler 6-2, 185. - both drafted out of HS in the late rounds and opted for college: Buehler (Vanderbilt). - Buehler really broke out after integrating driveline and pitch technologies (trackman, rhapsodo, edgertronic data) and added his cutter. Meyer was on MLB Tonight two days ago and literally said he never touched those things despite his high spin-rates, and the panel unanimously said he could be even better once he starts looking at that after going pro.

There’s a ton of questions completely unrelated to our pick. I didn’t post those.

So you’re saying height doesn’t measure bat-speed? #HDMB

More BA draft talk: The chat is still on going. JJ Cooper stepped in for Carlos, now he went for lunch and Carlos is back.

Tanner Witt is ridiculous. Thanks for posting Slade, great articles. These readings are pretty consistent to stuff we posted before. But still, seeing a 96.8 avg and 99.7 peak on Meyer is pretty bonkers for his size. He throws harder than Carraway which is a reliever. I heard Beeter is getting first round traction by teams in the late first round range, not sure he’ll be there at 42.

Madrigal has buffed up in the offseason and they were expecting more consistent power numbers in 2020. I’m not so sure about the Nick Madrigal comp, he was projected way more hit over power since the draft. 55 is the lowest power grade I’ve seen on Nick Gonzales which projects @25 HR these days.

He would’ve had the chance to prove it against better college competition and not just one series against Asa Lacy & Texas A&M. Teams absolutely put weight into college numbers. The draft rankings are practically a stock market where confidence is the measurement, of current tools and future projections. Asa Lacy’s stuff hasn’t change from last year, yet he leap frogged Hancock as the consensus pitcher in the class after a very good spring and even entered discussions of being 1-1. There’s nothing Gonzales can do to prove that. Cape data only proves he has done it with wood and against better pitching than Western Athletic Conference, which were both question marks before last summer.

But it’s not like he had one good junior season, Gonzales has raked every year in college. The cape-cod sample was just to diffuse the notion all his power comes from altitude and he can do it with wood. In these recent mock scenarios, KC will take Zac Veen. So it’s going to be between Gonzales or a college pitcher.

Honestly if they really wanted a hitter, Nick Gonzales isn’t a bad consolation prize. If those video game numbers lasted for a whole season, there’s no chance he’s available at 5. I would’ve banked on that happening and Hancock bouncing back rather than Asa Lacy holding up his dominance for a full stretch, pitchers generally don’t shake off poor command in just six months and his delivery hasn’t drastically changed at all from last year. But it seems the Blue Jays are highly connected to college pitching with the 5th pick, you guys already know who I like. But yeah, I can understand their love for Max Meyer IF the rumors are true and they take him. If they’re that high on him, they’re ultimately thinking Walker Buehler with Max Meyer and not Marcus Stroman.

Will update as I see them

It’s a fair question. With $9.7M pool and your first pick is worth 6.2M, if you can sign the guy for 5.5M, there’s an extra $700K for pick 42. Having $2.5M to work with instead of 1.7M is the difference between signing a Daxton Fulton, Jared Jones, or Enrique Bradfield vs a college player. Teams are not supposed to do pre-draft negotiations and deals ahead of time, but we know it happens every year. A college player isn’t bad, it’s just if they are targeting a specific guy in the second round the extra money doesn’t hurt.

Baseball America just opened an usually early 10AM draft chat, fire Carlos your questions here if you’re a subscriber: https://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1591706440

It’s just my opinion and you’re free to disagree. I also never said Max Meyer would be a disappointing draft pick, but simply don’t take all the rumours at face value, especially right before a draft. I’m not arguing this point, Meyer has both a better fastball and slider. I don’t even think reliever risk is the issue. Hancock’s frame is much more desirable, his track record is more extensive as a starter, his control is better, and his four pitch mix is typical in what you look for when trying to project a top-of-the-rotation arm. I’m not saying Meyer will fail, but for the teams making the selection it’s a matter of preference. There’s just so many pitchers taken high in drafts that never pan out, yet all of them had good stuff. It’s actually pretty alarming how often college pitchers fail in the top 10. I think teams that draft a pitcher this high need to be convicted in more than just individual tools, they evaluate the whole package and track record.

All teams have their draft boards lined up now, and they’re making calls around to get a feel of the players asking prices and who’d be a possible under-slot. Money is really at a premium in this draft as there’s tons of talent in the second round, prep guys falling hard and commit to college or juco unless they get their target bonuses. Even some draft eligible sophomores and juniors can play that leverage card, it helps a lot when teams have wiggle room. Both the Orioles and KC have multiple selections in the 30-40s and they’ll go for whoever falls into the second round. The mocks and rumors are saying the Blue Jays have Veen > Gonzo for position player and Meyer > Hancock for pitcher. I don’t buy it. I feel like the Max Meyer fiasco is smokescreen to create leverage for bonus negotiations. How often has this management been this transparent about their intentions? They’re the type to hold onto any competitive advantage they can get. “The Blue Jays loves Max Meyer” getting leaked everywhere a week before the draft, kinda smells fishy to me. Yes they’re analytically minded, so I can see them putting value in high velo with spin-rate guys like Meyer. But at the same time, they’ve trended towards large human beings with projectable upside like Kloff (6-5), Kendall (6-6), Manoah (6-6), Pearson (6-6). Max Meyer is 6-1 at best and doesn’t follow this trend, his stuff is also more “now” than projectable. But the key is they highly value makeup. Without all the fancy shenanigans associated with what that means, they evaluate players and choose a guy they really like despite what industry thinks. This is what happened with the Groshans/Kloff picks and we basically got two first round talents that year. They also really liked and drafted Alek Manoah despite hitters available (Baty, Caroll) and the draft was seen as a very weak pitching class. The Jays being high on Zac Veen is probably true. They have an undying passion for athletic young bats with projectable plus power and advanced hit tools. It might’ve been a bit of a secret two months ago when insiders were really high on Veen from last summer’s showcase, and he was a tad underrated being ranked 7-11. But now the cat is out of the bag and there’s very loud demand for him from teams directly behind our pick. I mean the Pirates, Padres, and Rockies would be floored if Veen fell to them at this point. I’m not entirely convinced the Jays will pass on Emerson Hancock over Max Meyer. I’m also not convinced Nick Gonzales is the third wheel here, the Jays might pass on both Veen and Hancock and take Gonzales. Now, I don’t think they’ll get a choice between the three, at least one of them will be taken ahead of #5. It might ultimately come down to Emerson Hancock and Nick Gonzales, I think KC will take Zac Veen. As a rule of thumb, I’d lean position player and draft Gonzo. It’s difficult to pass on such an obvious impact bat. The Orioles could completely throw this scenario out the window if they under-slot Gonzales at #2, if they don’t love Austin Martin (wtf?) they might value the extra money for their #30 and #39 picks. It’s the Orioles, one simply does not rationalize them. I personally done more research on Emerson Hancock and love his makeup, and would not be upset either way.

MLB: “We made excellent progress today.”

Good articles covering the Blue Jays pick from Keegan and Ben.