BlueRocky

The first four games Georgia didn’t face any particularly great competition, and sources closes to the team said Hancock was basically treating it like spring training while working on his breaking stuff, not leaning heavily on his plus changeup. I guess when the season is only 4 starts, things get blown way out. The models like the spin rate and movement guys, but I also like the FB/CU with control guys. It tells me the guy is a pitcher and executing pitches, not just blowing stuff past guys. The makeup and mental aspect is so important to pitching and can’t be quantified by graphs and videos, that’s why teams have scouts and cross checkers scouting these kids in person and talking to the players, their coaches, their teammates, families, etc. That’s the stuff we don’t hear about and don’t show up on mock drafts. And let’s not forget Hancock’s slider is actually pretty good, there’s a mix of 55 and 60 grades on it, and I’ve seen him use it effectively for Ks. His curve is an average pitch with potential, both pitches were developed with coaches at Georgia using rapsodo and edgertronic tech, he didn’t have those weapons refined coming out of HS. And his 6-4 frame really started to fill out in 2019, there’s still potential there.

A summary of the recent mock drafts, for others just catching up to all the mocks: Keith Law is saying college guy and leaning towards pitching. Baseball America has been mixed, mocking us with both arms like Lacy, Hancock, also citing Meyer. While also mentioning Gonzales, and Veen in previous mocks. Pipeline (Callis & Mayo) have cited Zac Veen + College Pitching if not available. Fangraphs (Longenhagen) has echoed the Zac Veen or college pitching sentiment with Max Meyer as the front runner, Jim Callis also believes the Jays are more enamored with Meyers than Hancock. Mason McRae from FutureBlueJays / Prospect365 is really high on Emerson Hancock and mocked him to us on several occasions. If the Orioles or Royals take Zac Veen, it basically comes down to Gonzales, Hancock, or Meyer. If you asked me two months ago, this would just be a dream scenario. I thought neither Gonzales and Hancock would even be on the table at #5. Now we’re choosing between Gonzales, Hancock, and Meyers as legit options, but that’s assuming the Orioles or Royals cockblock our pick. So the Blue Jays are in a pretty solid position either way. But I admit I’m higher on these three guys than most people. I think Gonzales is a legit 60 hit / 60 power guy with plus plate discipline. If his hitting translates to the minors, that’s a top 20 prospect like a Carter Kieboom, Gavin Lux, or Keston Hiura. So the question becomes if you believe in that bat or not. Both Hancock and Meyer have frontline potential. Do you want a FB/CU guy with bigger frame, better control, developing stuff and more pitchability? Or a pitching analytics darling with nasty spin rate, movement, FB/SL guy that touches 101 mph with a mind bending slider that touches 93 mph? His tools are loud while being uber athletic and can hit a bit as an outfielder, but has smaller frame. I don’t think you can go wrong here without the benefit of hindsight. The FB/SL guy seems like a bit of a risk as his effectiveness is directly tied to his velocity and stuff. But the ceiling is otherworldly and stuff is loud, it’s easier to dream on it. Where as the FB/CU guy with pitchability can fall back on control, and has already learned to pitch without velo as he was never a flamethrower back in high school. Now that he’s hitting 96-98 in games, changeup is already plus, he just needs the benefit of time and experience to refine the secondaries. The frame is also ideal at 6-4, 215. The options are great in either scenarios and it would be fun to follow the Blue Jays farm system watching a guy like Hancock or Meyer move up the ladder with Manoah, Simeon, Kloff, Kendall, and Pardinho. The pitching won’t arrive tomorrow, but the future rotation has become a lot deeper in just a few drafts. Apologies for long rant.

I watched it, I thought the documentary was well done. I almost teared up at a few parts to be honest. Brandy’s narrations were a tad irritating at times, but there are parts of the story impossible to tell without her perspective. I hold Doc in high regard, with or without the issues that has come to light. I hope there’s a link somewhere with full video to share for people that haven’t seen it.

That would be equivalent to grabbing like.. Austin Hendrick or Robert Hassell @ 5 and then reallocating those dollars to JT Ginn with the 42 pick. Surprisingly a lot of teams (e.g. Orioles, Royals, Padres) seem interested in the underslot tactic this year, esp for teams with multiple picks in the top 50. There isn’t a major gap between the top 3 guys, the next 3 guys, and the 5 guys after that. It’s a pretty strong crop at the top. And with only five rounds this year, weird s*** is gonna happen. Austin Hendrick is kinda like Brett Baty / Nolan Gorman from past drafts. And Robert Hassell is like a Corbin Caroll with a tick more power, less glove. Not a perfect comp, but neither are bad players. I actually like Hendrick. There’s just more intriguing options with the 5th pick. Funny enough, Blaze Jordan might be available with our 2nd pick. Dylan Crews is out of the draft now, and he was considered at top 10 pick just last summer.

They’ll be testing the coaches and players regularly but someone getting infected is pretty inevitable. Reminds me of what happened with the NBA and Rudy Gobert. A 50 game season with expanded postseason is better than nothing. I think both sides want to play, it’s just about how much $.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-weigh-risk-reward-final-prep-unique-mlb-draft/ Based on Shi Davidi’s piece with Shane Farrell, they’re not going to change their draft approach at #5. They’ll be taking the best guy they feel is available regardless of industry consensus or “flee to a college pick” for safety. Reading between the lines, they aren’t scared away by riskier demographics such as HS position player like Zac Veen or a “risky with upside” pitcher like Max Meyer. All options will be on the table on draft day.

It’s hard to see any team making a profit this year short of a deep postseason run, even with prorated payroll. If season doesn’t happen, players get nothing and are one year older, I don’t see how that benefits them. Most teams will operate at a loss either way. A second wave of spread could happen and the season gets cancelled half way through, all it takes is a couple players or coaches to test positive to gut this entire operation. If they don’t get an agreement and start the season soon, there won’t be a season to argue about.

Austin Martin dropping to 5 would be sick.

Here’s some highlights from an elimination game last year, he was pretty impressive. http://

No one specifically, it’s hard to predict a pick that far down. But the pitching crop is especially strong in the second to third round range, so teams can grab intriguing arms with good stuff. But with Shane Farrell replacing Steve Sanders and the weird scouting scene, I’m not too sure what they’ll do tbh.

I’ve heard from a couple draft guys high on him as a second rounder too, he might be a late first round pick. Winn would be a bit of a project though, he’s only 18, he’d probably end up as a pitcher.

Here’s some brief footage of Max Meyer:

@Slade We’ll be swinging for the fences with this pick, but it’s a bit hard to pass on that right? Triple-digit fastball and 80-grade slider, it’s kinda hard to believe that package exists in a college pitcher and he’s not a consensus top 3 pick. Is his height really that big of a deal? I mean, didn’t Pedro Martinez consistently hit 97-98 @ 5-11, 195.

Good draft article here for anyone interested https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/top-2020-mlb-draft-prospects-by-the-numbers/

A month ago, Zac Veen looked like a bit of a stretch at #6 and now the Royals pick seem to be between Veen and Gonzales at #4. Bummer, we’ll see how things play out next week at the draft. Either way there’s a lot of options on the table for #5. If the Orioles take Gonzales underslot at #2, and Marlins’ prayers are answered with Austin Martin, Lacy probably falls to Royals at #4. This scenario is unlikely to happen though and just a rumor.

That’s probably like 99th percentile ceiling, I guess? That’s ultimately what the team drafting Gonzales is hoping for. It’s unlikely he will be the next Rendon though, Gonzales doesn’t even play 3B and probably an average defender at best. If we have to throw comps around, maybe closer to young Brian Dozier?

Shortstops and catchers are kinda our thing now. Gimenez: https://streamable.com/o58x1t Martin Gimenez could really spend time in a buffet.. like a week. So we're looking at: SS Manuel Beltre SS Martin Gimenez CF Yhoangel Aponte C Jonathan Peguero I'll see if I can dig up some info on these guys Edit: Jonathan Peguero swing: JDB baseball RD (@jdbbaseballrd) • Instagram video WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM 147 likes, 0 comments - jdbbaseballrd on September 4, 2018: "Jonathan Peguero C 2020Class from El niche baseball academy. Top prospect 2020Class www.jdbbaseball.com". Yhoangel Aponte pic: https://www.picuki.com/media/2145841641871676600

There’s such a divide between ownerships, let alone players union vs teams. We have clubs that are paying salaries and supporting all their full time work staff, then we have clubs like the A’s are not paying any of their minor league players, while Angels furloughing their scouting department a week before the draft. The financial situation is so varied from team to team. I think both sides want to see baseball happen, but it depends at what cost. I’m hoping they figure things out soon and there will be baseball in 2020, though it’s looking less likely with each passing week just from the fact that the season is running out of time. 100 game season probably means double headers like three times a week, assuming the season starts in July.. that’s probably not going to happen.

@metafour made some good points, I’d just like to add that even if teams discredit his obscene power numbers due to lesser competition and friendly hitting environment, when evaluating Nick Gonzales you also need to give him credit for his 82-consecutive game on-base streak. He’s reached base on every game this year.. and all 55 games in 2019, and a couple games in his freshman season. An on-base streak that last for three seasons is just absurd and hardly written off as pure luck, regardless if he plays at “college Coors field.” The 60 Hit/55 Power tool BA put on Gonzales is pretty fair, teams drafting him are probably hoping for a player that hits .280 with a 10-15% walkrate and give you 25 homers. He never got to finish the 2020 season, and I’m not going to extrapolate one series against Texas A&M and ignore the entire body or work. It takes an elite eye, plate discipline, and hitting ability for a streak like that to even manifest. And unlike Torkelson, Gonzales wasn’t being intentionally walked every other plate appearance (though there was talk of teams going to do that before 2020 ended). In regards to the Blue Jays specifically, I’m hearing from outlets like Jim Callis and other sources that have talked to their scouts, the Jays are very high on Zac Veen, but Gonzales and Max Meyer are also on their agenda if available. My guess is their current draft board looks something like this, assuming the top 3 doesn’t drop: Zac Veen > Max Meyer > Nick Gonzales > Emerson Hancock

Yes many thanks Slade for posting the articles. Especially the ESPN+ ones, most of us have no access to. I am not surprised to see the Jays in on Max Meyer. It’s honestly not an easy choice between Hancock and Meyer if they’re going the college pitching route. Hancock’s lat injury from last summer doesn’t really concern me and I think the small sample of bad start is way overblown. If we’re completely ignoring Meyer’s lack of track record as a starter, Hancock’s medicals, and just look at their pitch profiles.. (Approx #’s) RHP Emerson Hancock, 6-4, 215 lbs FB 93-97, sits 95, T99 (60+) CU low-80s (65+) SL low/mid 80s (55) CB mid/high 70s (50) CMD: 60+ RHP Max Meyer, 6-0, 185 lbs FB 94-98, sits 96, T100 (70) SL low-90s (70+) CU mid-80s (50+) CB N/A CMD: 50+ Meyer’s stuff is more jaw-dropping with two double-plus pitches (the 90s slider with break especially impressive), he also is plus in athleticism. It’s sorta similar Marcus Stroman with a tick more height and velo, high-end BP could be a fallback option, I don’t have any data on his CB, he barely throws his changeup since FB/SL combo is completely dominating college hitters. Hancock has better command and still developing breaking stuff, but has a bigger frame and less reliant on high velo to get guys out, plus command and changeup with a FB that reaches back for 98-99. Hancock was a consensus top pick for two years now, while Meyer is seen as a popup guy that was considered late-first rounder last season. Which would I prefer? I’m more comfortable taking a guy like Hancock at no. 5 due to risks associated with Meyer but an argument could be made either way. I’d prefer either guy than Asa Lacy. And higher floor doesn’t necessarily indicate lower ceiling, I think Hancock could be really special when his breaking stuff further develops. Just three years ago he was a scrawny kid pitching 88-92 with no breaking pitches, so there’s unscratched potential IMO.

Nick Gonzales has hit everywhere he played.. freshman, sophomore, and junior. He was on pace to hit 30+ homers this season with elite plate discipline throughout college. Even now there’s talk he could go as high as #2 overall. The last second baseman to be taken this high was Keston Hiura, and Hiura wasn’t even this highly touted at draft time (2019 #17 top 100 prospect, Brewers #1 prospect). Gonzales also played exclusively SS this season, just to show he can be stretched defensively and he’s not a liability on the field. The only knock on Nick Gonzales is his small frame (5-10, 190), but he’s showed enough power and hitting ability to justify the top 5 considerations. He has average to above average exit velo, but that isn’t everything. He launches balls with a high barrel%, consistently high walk rate and does not strikeout. In 2020 he hit 448/.610/1.155 with a ridiculous 12.2 K%, 25.6 BB% and led all of college baseball with 12 homers in 16 games. That’s coming off 2019 year where he hit .432/.532/.773, then basically dominated with wood in cape cod over the summer and won league MVP. I’m not saying pick him instead of Veen, Hancock, or Meyers.. but to write off Gonzales and label him Russ Adams 2.0 is a bit silly.

Baseball America scouting grades, continued from above: Outfield: Shortstops: https://i.imgur.com/AS5I0ac.jpg Catchers: Despite the three prep bats getting 60 grades in hit, their consensus best prep hitters is Hassell > Veen > Hendrick. While Veen has probably the best plate discipline, Hendrick has the most power and aggressive swing, and Hassell the highest chance of sticking at CF and best pure hitter for average but lack power. Note that Tyler Soderstrom has a good chance of moving off catcher (RF/1B) and also has an impressive bat, Pete Crow-Armstrong isn’t too far behind. The separation between the prep class isn’t that big, as teams are missing the entire season worth of data to evaluate. PCA was actually the top prep player a year ago before falling off a cliff from possible fatigue and participating in too many amateur events, he did gain back some ground earlier this spring.

It’s still actually not that bad. Just from 1st round there’s three potential frontline pitchers in Pearson, Gore, and McKay. Jo Adell and Keston Hiura look like studs. There’s a couple guys with potential in Trevor Rogers, Clarke Schmidt, J.B. Bukauskas. Royce Lewis and Hunter Greene still could be something. There’s a few names past the 1st round that made top 100 lists. 2017 will prob be slightly above average, with the top names tipping the scale a bit when it’s all said and done. Typically about half of the first round picks make the majors and even fewer become stars.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/the-wild-west-milb-teams-on-chopping-block-scramble-to-find-mlb-partner/

There’s been studies done on pitchers that go to college from HS that suggest the largest leap of stuff often happens between 18 to 20 year by year. It’s not uncommon to see an arm throw 88-92 mph at 18, then with some professional strength and conditioning, improve to 91-95, then 93-97 by they’re 20 & 21. Both Adam Kloffenstein and Kendall Williams have added strength since the draft. Though neither are known for being fireballers despite their size, I wouldn’t be surprised to see 97mph readings when they reach double-A. They’re still just scratching the surface of their ceiling. Both have been on record of working on their breaking balls, particularly the slider and changeup has been their main focus in the lower minors and Kendall already has a fairly decent curveball.