BlueRocky

Lengthy strike is imminent. The two sides have their own agendas, which is fine, but they have no idea how to talk to each other without needlessly getting the public involved, insulting each other, and pointing fingers.

This does look kinda bad on the MLBPA. When you have the players come out and say “Tell us when and where” on a 48 game season, then the owners propose 60 game full pro-rated (with caveats such as grievance waiver) only to be rejected, then countered with 70 games and bigger playoff bonus pool, it kinda defeats the whole integrity behind the “When and where” movement. That said, when half the league is getting paid MLB minimum, they have every right to fight for fair salary. But the whole mediation process was done very poorly from both sides. We’ll know very soon if there’s baseball in 2020, likely a decision this week.

Benny Montgomery is crushing at the PG Nationals. Will see how he does leading up to next year’s draft, looking like plus tools across the board.

It’s hard to criticize this draft result at all, even if they only took Martin and punted the 4 picks after it would be a huge win. But the 77th pick is quite curious, as there were some good talent available in the 3rd round that they passed on for Palmer. It would’ve made more sense as an under slot value if they needed more money for Martin, but that wasn’t the case as he signed for 850K. They must really like this guy and it’s an interesting decision. Other names available after #77: 78 - 2B Kaden Polcovich (Mike’s guy) 79 - RHP Nick Garcia (high riser) 80 - RHP Cole Wilcox (1st rd talent) 81 - LHP Sam Weatherly (One of the better lefties on the board) 82 - OF David Calabrese (Highest HS Canadian aside from Owen Caissie) 87 - SS Casey Martin (1st rd talent) 88 - OF Jordan Nwogu (Highest college Canadian, player vs Vanerbilt in 2019 CWS) 89 - 3B Blaze Jordan (monster HS power bat) 102 - 3B Gage Workman (Great glove in college) 117 - LHP Luke Little (Juco guy recent clocked at 105mph)

https://www.mlb.com/news/2020-farm-system-rankings #16 here back in March.. another article not too long ago had us @19-21 but I don’t remember where. https://theathletic.com/1641139/2020/03/02/keith-laws-farm-system-rankings-for-all-30-mlb-teams/ keith law ranked us 7th pre-draft

I wouldn’t agree that the overall talent of the SEC would be equivalent to High Rookie ball. A lot of these college programs are really advanced in both recruiting and development. They’re fully equipped with the type of tech available in the lower minors, and some programs like Vanderbilt do it even better than a lot of minor league teams. You have to be quite talented to be a starter or Ace in an SEC college program, so I have confidence that Martin can hit in the minors. Just to name a few SEC starters in upcoming and past drafts: Emerson Hancock, Cole Wilcox, Garrett Crochet, Carmen Mlodzinski, Asa Lacy, JT Ginn, Casey Mize, Tanner Burns, Zack Thompson, TJ Sikkema, Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Ryan Rolison, Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker. The overall pitching talent Martin played is around MWL, which are usually guys that can at least locate a fastball and have one usable secondary. The names above are more advanced than that, but this is the caliber of talent he’s facing when we look at his obscene .392 batting average in 2019 as a sophomore. FSL is like taking all the best arms in the MWL and putting them in one league, that’s sorta how the graduation system works itself out. I wouldn’t quite compare SEC college to FSL but it’s not that far behind. Guys down in rookie ball have very raw command, like we’re referring to kids fresh out of high school, like Kendall Williams who could’ve been a freshman and BP arm in Vanderbilt. Or guys a year removed from their IFA signing. High Rookie refers to the Appy league, typically age 17-19 IFA signings, high school draftees, or late-round college guys. We had a good program running down in Bluefield, with guys like Ryan Sloniger (OPS 1.031 - 2019/38th round), Spencer Horwitz (OPS .866 - 2019/24th round), Miguel Hiraldo (OPS .829 - 2017 IFA 750K). These are already some of the better names, and you’re right 90% of the ones passing through GCL or Bluefield will never make it to double-A.

Who do you have in mind? Where James Paxton is only going to cost money, trade is another option, but a “Sale/Verlander” caliber trade would cost us significantly in the farm. We’ll need pitching in 2021-2024 for sure if they are planning to compete. With expanded playoffs, they might not be that far off from being a playoff team.

The best guys in SEC is probably better than MWL, but about the same level as FSL. Typically the advanced college draft picks will debut around that level, and will move up to double-A if they rake.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2020-mlb-draft-analysis-for-all-30-teams/#BlueJays

It seems like Pipeline, Fangraphs, and BA have slightly different perspectives of the Jays farm system, but all have been pretty positive and trending upwards. You can kinda put Keith Law and The Athletic in this group as well, while ESPN is probably closer to Pipeline, though Kiley McDaniels probably shares some ideas with his former group at Fangraphs. MLB Pipeline thinks they’re top heavy and last I checked, ranks the farm system in the late-teens or early 20s out of 30, post-Bichette graduation. Fangraphs thinks they’re deep and puts more weight on the talent brewing in the lower minors, which is true. But they’re more forward thinking and have projected guys like Jansen, Kirk, and Martinez higher than other publications before they’re more universally recognized. They were also one of the first to really jump on Nate Pearson. Baseball America is somewhere in the middle and ranks them top 10 farm, pre-Martin. They’re also higher on Martin than #52 I think based on what I read from them, probably closer to 25-40. They do less projecting than Fangraphs and look more at current tools and latest results, but it’s understandable as their list is a lot more dynamic than the other two and changes constantly (with about 4-5 major updates every year to the overall rankings). I think BA was the first one to really pump the tires on Groshans after seeing him perform in Lansing at his age. They were also very high on Simeon Woods-Richardson after he dominated A/A+ at his age.

Easily half of them. Draft rankings are super volatile around this time of the year, 2021 class especially so with the circumstances around scouting. We had guys like Dylan Crews, Blaze Jordan, Jordan Walker, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Casey Martin, and Cole Wilcox really highly ranked 12 months ago.

I also think they have Martin’s number worked out. I guessed 7-7.5M on draft night, they’ll likely settle around 7-7.2 M, based on the amount of money left in the pool. There’s only $7,454,825 left to sign both Martin and Frasso, inclusive of the 5% overslot. In this case, Martin will be getting about a million over slot value. #5 value = $6,180,700 #106 value = $549,000

I’m thinking Trent Palmer will be under-slot #77 @ $805,600 value and Nick Frasso be around slot #106 @ $549,000 value

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/top-2021-mlb-draft-prospects 1. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt 2. Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt 3. Brady House, 3B/RHP, Winder-Barrow HS (Ga.) 4. Jud Fabian, OF, Florida 5. Christian Little, RHP, Christian Brothers HS (Mo.) 6. Braylon Bishop, OF, Arkansas HS (Ark.) 7. Matt McLain, SS/OF, UCLA 8. Luke Leto, SS/RHP, Portage Central HS (Mich.) 9. Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami 10. Tyree Reed, OF, American Canyon HS (Calif.) 11. Izaac Pacheco, SS/3B, Friendswood HS (Tex.) 12. Alex Binelas, 3B, Louisville 13. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (Calif.) 14. Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss 15. Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU 16. Ian Moller, C, Wahlert HS (Iowa) 17. Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State 18. Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College 19. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep HS (Texas) 20. Ethan Wilson, OF, South Alabama

Just to summarize some of the negotiation points since March: Players get: - Increased fully pro-rated salary from 48 (agreed in March) to 60-70 (proposed), earning @40% of their total regular contract. - Guaranteed service time as per last season - Postseason pool money IF season finishes and world series is played - Risk of contracting COVID daily while being subjected to rigorous and extensive testing and safety protocols Owners get: - 2020 MLB Draft cut to 5 rounds to save money - Unlimited 20K UDFA signings (RIP) - 2021 MLB Draft cut to 20 rounds to save money - MLB Draft bonus only 100K payable in 2020, rest is deferred to 2021 & 2022, to help cash flow - IFA postponed until Jan 2021 for further money deferral - Expanded postseason for 2020 & 2021 with 16 playoff team format to recover revenue due to shortened season (this will likely be permanent going forward) - Universal DH for 2020 & 2021 (also permanent) - Rights to sell advertising on all MLB uniforms (also permanent) - Opening day July 15-20 - World Series ends late October - Geographic schedules (July 19-Sep 28) - MLBPA grievance waiver - Lube included