It actually increases your odds of winning the game (Doug Pederson did the same thing a few weeks ago). Assuming a 50% chance of converting a 2pt conversion and a 95% chance of converting the EP, your odds breakdown as follows:
- Win (2pt succeed + EP) = 47.5%
- Tie (2pt succeed + miss EP OR 2pt fail + 2pt succeed) = 27.5%
- Lose (2pt fail + 2pt fail) = 25%
Assuming that you have a 50-50 chance of winning in OT, that gives you a ~61% chance of winning the game by going with the 2pt approach. By kicking FGs, your odds are as follows:
- Tie (EP + EP OR EP Fail + 2pt succeed) = 92.5%
- Lose (EP + EP Fail OR EP Fail + 2pt Fail) = 7.5%
Assuming a 50-50 chance of winning in OT, your odds of winning the game are only ~46%.