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burlingtonbandit

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Everything posted by burlingtonbandit

  1. burlingtonbandit
    I have to say it is kind of ironic Shapiro criticized AA about trading the prospects meanwhile the Jays have really struggled at drafting/developing young talent in the 8 years since. I wouldn’t even call the 2020 season contending, they were 4 games above .500 in a shortened season with expanded playoffs. 2021 was the best team in the “window” they have had which is funny since they didn’t make the playoffs ironically. Atkins certainly isn’t the worst GM but I think people also again don’t take into account the payroll when comparing what AA had to work with back then. Remember the ST when he basically had to go around to players asking for deferred money to try to get Ervin Santana since Roger’s didn’t want to spend.
  2. burlingtonbandit
    Jansen also a free agent after this season which could be a big loss. Having 2 good catchers I think is really nice luxury to have given how demanding the position is. I’d like to think you can replace a lot of the bullpen guys with the glut of prospects the jays have. Manoah and or Ricky T emerging as number 3 SP would be huge given kikuchi is also a FA. Outside those 2 arms the jays don’t really have much in impact young talent, more so a lot of platoon type guys or guys who look like they can hit but have defensive question marks. It’s kind of sad to think how bad the lineup would look like without Vladdy and Bo. Signing a Soto/Tucker next offseason would help though.
  3. burlingtonbandit
    Sounds like people are finally realizing Atkins isn’t that good of a GM. The expectation right now seems to be 3rd wildcard team and even if a lot of stuff breaks right, the division still seems out of reach. They really need more power, as the playoffs it’s magnified even more. For a 230M payroll the team doesn’t seem very good.
  4. burlingtonbandit
    Its fair but from the team side I think you have to sign the deal. Alternative is he just leaves for nothing in 4 years. Even if he opts out you got him in his prime/peak years. By 30 hes already going to be declining anyways. By 2027 it could be 15M/Win on the FA market.
  5. burlingtonbandit
    Its the new reality of the market so I would say yes. 2024: $2 million 2025: $7 million 2026: $13 million 2027: $19 million 2028: $30 million 2029: $35 million 2030: $35 million Getting 3 FA years for 30-35 per year has a lot of surplus value as does 39M for the 3 arb. years. There is the risk he gets hurt/becomes ineffective in which case the player options will suck for the team but that's just the cost of doing business these days.
  6. burlingtonbandit
    Those 2, Grichuk, Duvall and Grossman would certainly be upgrades on this roster IMO. Not having a Luplow/Lukes see PA is an upgrade in itself not to mention would provide depth in an area the Jays don't have much of.
  7. burlingtonbandit
    Ironic because the Royals just signed one today...lol
  8. burlingtonbandit
    Probably just easier to look at the team's projections against other teams instead of looking at this year vs last year etc.. Not sure how accurate it is but Fangraphs in their 2024 projected standings page has them as the 8th best team in baseball (however 4th in AL East) at a .524 Win% (85 Wins). If the Jays are "done" for the offseason then they probably fall down a bit as well given there is still quite a few FA still out there.
  9. burlingtonbandit
    Even BNS article says the Jays should look at targeting a RHH corner OFer. As of right now you could go: LF Schneider 3B Turner 2B Espinal 1B Vladdy Or have Turner DH with IKF at 3rd but it seems like such a low cost to sign a Tommy Pham and then you could have Schneider play 2nd/Espinal at 3rd with Turner DHing. Hell you could even have Schneider still play LF and Springer slide to CF with RHH playing RF and you wouldn't have to start KK/Varsho. Also provides injury insurance/depth in the OF which I think is overlooked given KK, Springer and Turner's age (Turner not playing the OF but Springer will have DH days as well)
  10. burlingtonbandit
    I thought his range wasn't that good from what I saw but admittedly I didn't watch every inning. He looked really bad in what I say from him at 3rd base so perhaps theres bias from that and that we don't really have any minor league scouting reports about the defense since he wasn't considered a prospect before last season. Hopefully he can be a passable defender at 2nd and can continue hitting because him being a 3WAR everyday 2nd baseman would really help the Blue Jays outlook going forward.
  11. burlingtonbandit
    The Jays also have ran a pretty high payroll of late so I'm not sure a 90 win wildcard team is really that big of an achievement if you are spending 230-250M on payroll. There is no doubt Atkins has done well in FA and in trades for the most part, but if you told me back in 2016 when Shapiro/Atkins were first hired that the team wouldn't have a single division title with no playoff success in 7 years Id be pretty disappointed based on expectations. The big blemish on Atkins ironically is the lack of developing young talent as well as his communication or lack there of. He's terrible with the media and comes off really unauthentic which I think is a big reason why casual fans don't like him. And there seems to be a big disconnect with the communication with the players as we saw last season.
  12. burlingtonbandit
    While KK and Varsho had elite defensive seasons I think you could see a drop off in performance there just because they set the bar that high with how good they were last year. Schneider is set to get more playing time this year and he looked like a below average defender at 2nd so there's that. Springer is a year older as well..
  13. burlingtonbandit
    Good defence and good pitching isn't fun when the team can't hit though (saying this generally not as it pertains to the Jays the coming season). Chapman at 3rd definitely was a difference maker though. I think saying the Jays won't be as good defensively doesn't make anymore more excited to watch the team lol. I would lump Vladdy into the bad defender category. -23 in OAA at 1st base in the last 4 years and he looked really bad last year. Turner at his age if he does play the field is likely quite a bit below average as well (at least at 3rd). Biggio and Espinal have been good defenders in the past so I can see them returning to above average at 2nd/3rd.
  14. burlingtonbandit
    I'm really surprised Atkins would go into the season with this roster given he's likely to be fired if the team doesn't make the playoffs (maybe even if they make it as a wildcard and don't win a playoff game). You would think if your job was on the line you would would want to maximize the offence and right now the lineup looks underwhelming. Some bounce backs from Vladdy, Kirk and Varsho could turn the lineup into a top 5 offence but you would think they would want more certainty. Also I know its a small piece but they still need a 4th OF that play against LHP and spell Varsho/KK. Last year we saw garbage like Jordan Luplow fail and it was infuriating to watch.
  15. burlingtonbandit
    My guess is IKF doesn't start many games and they use him as a defender late in games with leads. Have Schneider start at 2nd and remove him late in games to have the upgrade in defense. Biggio likely starts at 3B vs RHP if he looks more like the guy at the end of last season.
  16. burlingtonbandit
    AL East gets even tougher lol. At least the schedule is more balanced now, but long term Baltimore, TB and BOS all now have really smart FO. And the Yankees are the Yankees.
  17. burlingtonbandit
    This next year is going to be a big one for the farm system. Its why it feels a rebuild is on the horizon without many impact prospects coming up. Now if Ricky establishes himself as a number 2/3 SP, Roden can improve to a 55FV type guy and a few other prospects emerge into 3+ WAR potential, then you can build around a new core. Now if instead Manoah sucks and the farm system still is a bottom third at this time next year you're probably trading Bo and Vladdy and retooling for another couple of seasons.
  18. burlingtonbandit
    I mean its a Front Office's job to build a team, so I mean I think they deserve blame to how they have gotten to this point. The farm system isn't exactly busting at the seams with difference makers either. Given the budget, I think its fair to criticize paying 41 Million on KK, Tuner, IKF and Chad Green. Thats a lot of money for what those 4 players bring considering the holes on the roster. The lineup still lacks power and is super RH heavy. Personally, this coming season is the least excited I've been going into a year since 2019. I wish it wasn't the case but just feels the team is getting old and the window is closing like what 2016/2017 was. I'm really hoping they do well because its a lot more fun when the Blue Jays are doing well but I think a lot of the general fan base feels similar.
  19. burlingtonbandit
    The IKF signing looked terrible at the time and looks even worse now. To blow that much of the budget on a utility infielder who can't hit (not to mention gave him a f***ing 2nd year) is a waste of resources. Espinal at 2.7M is better value FFS, at least he can somewhat hit lefties. He was bad defensively last season but was really good the years prior. When you combine what IKF and Chad Green are making (18M) I would much rather take a FA bat over them.
  20. burlingtonbandit
    My point is I don't think this team is better than last years...
  21. burlingtonbandit
    If the Jays did nothing here on out you think they are a projected 90 win team? I'd take the under on that. It seems morel like a 87 win team that with some luck can get to 90 wins. They could also add at the deadline. Jays were super lucky with pitching health last season as well, a couple injuries there and it could get a lot uglier. (same can be said for lots of teams, but if we are comparing the Jays last season to this coming one)
  22. burlingtonbandit
    JDM also had a .370 xwOBA and is 36 while Turner had .336 xwOBA and is 39. For next season Id put money on JDM being the way better hitter.
  23. burlingtonbandit
    This offseason has been extremely underwhelming. The team really has to hope for some bounce backs because on paper they are a worse team than last season.
  24. burlingtonbandit
    Espinal has been a plus defender at 3B, Id rather have above average defence and a 105wRC+ bat vs LHP than a elite defender with a 80wRC+ bat at 3rd. Only so much you can do defensively at 3rd base anyways.
  25. burlingtonbandit
    I would say Espinal vs LHP is better than IKF.
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