If it's not 100% chance, then it's damn close.
The problem is that baseball can't extend the season into November/December without weather playing a huge part. The NBA can realistically suspend the season for two months and just end the playoffs in August once they resume, and it wouldn't make a difference for them. In baseball, if you start the season in June, and have to end it two months later to get all the games in, it will be a disaster. They would have to eat up the revenue loss by eliminating the scheduled games in April and possibly May (depending on how long this scare lasts) and then play a shortened season. That's why I can understand Manfred trying to prolong this as long as he can, but it will ultimately fail. Spring training games will probably be shut down soon, and Opening Day likely pushed back. How far back is the question.
Between this and a potential lockout after 2021, our six years with Vlad/Bo/Biggio might seem a lot shorter.