glory

So he got Shun money. Curious to see what Sugano ends up getting.

The odds of Vlad becoming an average 3B defensively, much less a good one, are so small that I'm not sure what the point of putting him there in 2021 would be aside from appeasing his ego. Not every player has to be versatile and play multiple positions. It doesn't look like he's going to provide much defensive or BsR value in his career, so just put him in a less demanding defensive position that he might be average at over time (1B) and make sure to maximize his greatest strength (bat). The latter is way more important to the team's success over the next 5 years. I guess we'll know based on who the Jays pick up this winter. If it's someone with a proven track record (ex. Turner), then Vlad playing 3B is probably out of the question aside from emergency situations. If it is someone like Kim, who has no track record and is more risky as a player, then they can be a bit more flexible in their decision making.

Agreed about DJ not signing with the Jays. I'd be shocked if any team is offering 5 years (which would take him to age 37), and the team he actually wants to sign with is already offering 4, so it's only a matter of time before they agree to a number. The Jays definitely need an infielder, though. Vlad isn't (/better not be) playing 3B so they'll need someone there at the very least.

Abreu, Robert, Moncada, and Grandal in the same lineup, and all of them are very good/great players. The White Sox are going to be a desirable landing spot for Cuban players moving forward.

Between the two, I would agree Springer is the one to go for. Lindor is a MLBPA rep now. I'm not sure he "settles" for 8 years when he has the leverage of going to free agency next year instead. He knows if the Jays trade for him then they have to extend him. He doesn't have to do anything. Teams should have more money to spend next winter as well if revenue recovers in 2021 (it won't recover all the way but certainly more than 2020).

I'll never say never but the chances of the Jays signing Springer, trading assets for Lindor, and then extending Lindor for a decade seem very, very small. That's a lot of payroll tied up to two players, one who is already in his 30's and the other who (on a 10 year deal) would still have 5 expensive years left on his deal when Vlad/Bo/Biggio are free agents. I could see one or the other but both seems very unrealistic, and would have a high likelihood of looking bad in a few years.

LeMahieu's camp is probably using the Jays to get more from the Yankees, but who knows. No other team wanted to go 4 years for Ryu, and Atkins did. If he's fine with offering 5 years, and that's too much for the Yankees, then there could be a chance. Not sure I'd want DJ on a 5 year deal, but that's likely the only way the Jays even have a shot to lure him from the Yanks. Springer seems more likely.

That too.

After Bauer, I'm not sure there is a right answer as far as which SP to sign. There are a lot of pitchers coming off down years or injury, and a pitcher like Tanaka whose arm will always be considered a risk. Sugano could easily be the 2nd best SP on the market despite the uncertainty of how he will perform in the Majors. I'm sure there will be at least one SP out of the group of risks (Odorizzi, Kluber, Paxton, Quintana, Tanaka, Archer, etc) that will end up having a great season in 2021, but it's really a coin flip, and hard to know whether those pitchers would even want to sign with the Jays if their intention is to increase their value for a future payday. Ray falls under that same group, but he just happened to pitch here for a month so the Jays got the advantage of building a relationship with him. If Passan is correct and the Jays could steal Springer from the Mets, then a Springer/Kim/Sugano off season would be pretty good, IMO. Even if Springer signs with the Mets, the Jays could spread the $25m that they would have paid Springer into multiple holes (ex. JBJ and another SP). CF might be the hardest position to fill if Springer and JBJ sign elsewhere, but other than that, the Jays are in a good spot.

The good thing about this is that there is a deadline to sign him (Jan 1). So we will know within 2 weeks whether he's a Jay or not. Not sure what Sugano's date is, could be a week or later. So if the Jays have interest in both then shouldn't be too much longer to find out what the end result is. The other FA's might bleed into Feb/March.

The bigger issue for the Raptors with Harden is that he's likely going to a East team, so between that and Giannis staying in Milwaukee, it's going to impact them long term if Harden goes to a team like Miami or Philly or Brooklyn. I doubt the Rockets will get a better player than Siakam in a trade from any of those teams (unless the Sixers offer Simmons). The Raps would be very small with a lineup of Kyle, Fred, Harden, OG, and Baynes, but f*** it. Make the deal and then figure out the lineup afterwards. I'm not sure about the numbers, but trading Siakam+ for Harden might still give the Raptors a max slot next season. Opens up more possibilities for them. It's a long shot, but Masai always thinks big, so can't rule it out.

Yeah, Pascal for Harden is a no brainer. It was worth keeping options open in case Giannis was available, but now that he's not, have to strike when a legit top 5 talent becomes available.

If MLB plays at least 120-130 games in 2021, then I'll probably be fine with it. I want 162 like everyone else, but I can see the logic in pushing the start of the season back a bit beyond just the financial reasons. If they play less than that, or even worse less than 100, then it's BS. Although with Manfred wanting 14 playoff teams as early as 2021, I don't even know if a 162 game season even means anything at this point aside from records.

They don't seem to want Tanaka back regardless. Could be related to his always risky elbow, or maybe they view him as a backup in case they can't sign DJ. They could be in on Sugano, I have no idea, but from everything that has been speculated, it seems the Yankees are all in on DJ and that they don't want to spend much more than that. So my guess is their off season will be re-signing DJ and then making some smaller SP moves via FA or trade.

Definitely fewer games. Owners want to limit the amount of games with no fans in attendance, as they don't want to pay the players their full salaries if they aren't getting gate revenue. So they'll delay for a month or so, hope all the players and enough of the general population are vaccinated by the start of ST/the season, and then try for a season starting in May-June with at least limited capacity. It sucks, but not surprising. More bickering between the owners and PA in the mean time, combined with a painfully slow FA market. Fun times ahead.

If Springer signs with the Mets (which seems very likely), JBJ is the next best CF option. He'd be a really good stopgap option in CF. There will likely be real competition for him, though.

From what I've heard/read, the Yankees aren't going to be very active if/when they sign DJ. They lost a lot of money due to Covid and don't want to increase payroll by too much. So I'd be surprised if they signed anyone significant before DJ is signed. They want to bring him back.

If the Jays miss out on the big FA's (Springer, Bauer, DJ, Realmuto), then I don't see why Kim/Sugano would be a disappointment. Signing both of them would be risky in terms of projecting performance, they could both be good or both be busts, but the SP market after Bauer is pretty much riddled with risks (health/performance) and the non-SS infield market isn't that much better.

What will be interesting is that I believe Ha-Seong Kim's posting period ends on January 1. So I guess we'll know in a little over 2 weeks whether that's happening or not. If it doesn't happen, and DJ is back with the Yankees, then the Jays will need an IF from somewhere, and rumors might get out of control by then if Lindor is still with CLE.

The Jays are one of the few teams that are willing to spend money this winter, and presumably have a lot of it to spend. Supply is exceeding demand to a ridiculous level in the free agent market. The Jays best prospects are in low A, and the 2020 minor league season was wiped out, so they'd be selling low if they moved any of their top 10 prospects. The Jays don't need a SS. All of those things combined means the Jays should be prioritizing free agency right now, not a trade for a rental SS who will need a decade long extension to keep around. As painful as it is for fans, the Jays can afford to wait for every FA except Kim and Sugano (assuming they are in on one or both), since there is a posting deadline for them. Beyond those two, there are still very good FA's available even if the Mets sign Springer and Bauer, or someone else signs Bauer. Absolutely no need to trade for Lindor. It won't even benefit them in the box office in 2021 due to the pandemic.

McCann's the first domino. Realmuto's not going to the Mets, so they are probably going to end up overpaying Springer now that they have a catcher. Hopefully things will start picking up now. I could definitely see Realmuto still being unsigned late into January, unless Dombrowski gets the greenlight to spend. I don't see any obvious fit with money. Maybe the Nats?

Jeff Passan is basically MLB Woj and he thinks Lindor's going to the Jays or Mets. There's probably a very real shot. I've said before I'd be wary of a ridiculous FA style extension for Lindor (10+ years), but if the Jays do happen to trade for him and extend him, then I have enough faith in Mark and Ross to trust their judgment. When talking about signing Gerrit Cole, Michael Kay (announcer for the Yankees) said Cole was Brian Cashman's "white whale". He was going to get him regardless of what it cost. Maybe Lindor is that for Shatkins. Signing Kim, trade Gurriel for Lindor, and then moving Biggio to the OF seems like it would work. Grichuk still being in CF would suck, though. I'd still prefer something like Springer + Kim, but Springer is probably heading to the Mets.

Kim is younger than every position player on the team except Vlad, Bo, and Kirk. If he turns out to be good, and the Jays have him locked up for the rest of his 20's, then that would be a great outcome. Of course he has very real bust potential too, more than any of the MLB free agents they could sign, so that's where they have to use their scouting to determine whether they believe in his upside and ability to hit big league pitching/velocity.

The Phillies just gave Dombrowski $20m over four years. I don't think they hired him to rebuild or significantly cut payroll, so JTR going back to Philly has probably become a real possibility now. I tend to agree that the Jays are open to anything but are more likely to hit the middle of the market unless a big name falls to them. Springer (Mets), DJ (Yanks), JTR (Phils?), Bauer (Angels?) all seem like long shots now. The Jays are probably shopping in the Kim, Brantley, JBJ, Sugano, Paxton, Odorizzi, etc, market but are waiting to see what happens to the big dogs first.

The SP market is so underwhelming outside of Bauer. I wonder what Sugano ends up getting. He did play on the same team as Yamaguchi so I'm sure the Jays are familiar with him.