glory

Signing Eovaldi over Bassitt would have been fine with me. I'm not sure if that was possible (it takes two to tango in free agency) or whether the Jays valued Bassitt higher due to less perceived injury risk, but performance/stuff/AL East history definitely was in Eovaldi's favor, and he got a shorter contract on a lower AAV. Thinking about it further, Atkins usually aims pretty highly in free agency (Ryu, Springer, Semien, Gausman, etc). In this case, Bassitt was a floor rather than ceiling signing, but still got a pretty large AAV. Could be worse though, the Jays could have been holding the bag for Rodon, which thankfully they didn't pursue.

Yeah, Kirk's ISO in his last 400 PA dating back to last season is .082 and wRC+ at 101. He was great in April-June 2022, but then fell off big time and hasn't rebounded. It's early and he's still young, so he could easily bounce back, but considering his weight and the fact that he's the slowest man on earth, I'm not sure him vs. Moreno moving forward is going to be a slam dunk unless Kirk's 2021-first half 2022 power comes back. Who is better for 2024-beyond is probably debatable, especially if Moreno develops even a little bit of pop. Of course if first half 2022 Kirk comes back, then it's a different story.

The 2026 talk doesn't negate the fact that 2023 (and likely/hopefully 2024-25) should be good, competitive seasons. It's just looking more and more likely that this is going to be a 3 year window, followed by a forced rebuild. I guess we have to hope Atkins has some Houdini trades left in him where he trades minor league junk and gets good, controllable MLB talent in return.

Yeah, it’s looking that way. Atkins has been a solid GM on the big league level but he’s built this team in the exact opposite way you would have imagined when Shatkins took over (massive investment in free agency, trading prospects, no extensions to young players, middling/poor farm system during competitive years). If Atkins, Click, or whoever the GM is over the next few years can keep the train moving without any rebuilding phase in 2026, I’d honestly be shocked at this point.

The Jays saw what happened in Game 2 of the WC series, knew they likely only had a three year window remaining, and decided to extend Schneider anyway. Whether it's him, the org's analytics, or both, they deserve whatever they get from this point on.

Why is Kirk pinch hitting for KK rather than Espinal?

We talk about Moreno and his lack of power, but should we be concerned about Kirk's? Since July 1 of 2022, he has a .083 ISO in 394 plate appearances (not counting tonight). His best attribute is clearly drawing walks and making contact in general, but he's probably the slowest runner on earth, so if he's not hitting for power then that's not the most useful skill for him. Hopefully he starts hitting for at least modest power at some point. He did early in 2022 but then stopped mid season and has never recovered.

With only 2 years of Vlad/Bo left after this season, it would be pretty ballsy to replace Chapman with Barger, but at some point the Jays do have to start replacing departing players with prospects. If they put Barger there in 2024, then hopefully they can improve 2B/LF/DH enough to compensate for whatever growing pains Barger would have. Thankfully they have 5 SP's locked up for next season so in theory we shouldn't see another $20m AAV SP signing.

Yeah I think it's clear now that if the Jays want any chance at sustainable contention beyond 2025 they are going to have to bite the bullet and sign both Vlad and Bo. That's going to be a $600-700m investment for two players, and likely some dead money in the back end for both, but I really don't see any other option. The farm system on the position player side is kind of ass right now, and I don't see that changing dramatically by 2025 to the point where they could replace either of those two internally.

If this is the start of Belt turning things around then that changes the outlook for the lineup tremendously.

Schneider can always make an easy bullpen day more complicated. Bass could have pitched the 8th and Jackson the 9th. Not sure why Mayza was needed at all here.

Yeah there's no apology that will save that. Can't even say he misspoke.

The Orioles bottomed out far more significantly, but from a timeline standpoint, was putting up with a couple of 100 loss seasons really that much worse than what the Jays endured right after the Bautista window closed? To put things into perspective: 2016: Jays and Orioles had the exact same record, met in the WC game, Jays won. 2017: Both teams tried, and failed, to extend the window of an aging roster. 2018: Jays tried again, Orioles were just really bad, held on to assets way too long only to trade them for nothing (Machado, JD, etc), and gave up mid season. 2019: Orioles hired a new GM to completely tank, Jays began a 1 year tank 2020: Pandemic season, no fans, throwaway year for the entire league from a development standpoint. 2021: Orioles finish 52-110, 2nd year of their Elias tank, the Jays win 91 games while missing the playoffs by a game. 2022: Orioles finish a respectable 83-79 in what was expected to be their 3rd full season tank, while the Jays win 92 games and make the playoffs. So essentially, both made the playoffs in 2016, both held on to an aging roster rather than start a rebuild in 2017-18, both began a real tank in 2019, and the Jays became good (2021) one year sooner (2022). Unfortunately we don't know what the Jays would have done in 2020 if the pandemic never happened, but a full season rotation (after Ryu) of Roark, Anderson, an injury prone Shoemaker, and trash Thornton combined with a middling pen probably doesn't see .500, although maybe the offense would have carried it to respectability. The Jays also spent significantly in 2020-21, getting Ryu, Springer, Semien, etc. The O's basically did nothing and it's been nothing but organic growth. I guess the main difference is the Jays were just bad in 2017-18 while the O's were horrendous, but I mean, bad is bad. I think we have to give the O's some credit here. This was a pretty quick turnaround all things considered, and the farm system is still in an amazing spot. Wouldn't shock me at all if 2023 is the last season the Jays are better than them for a while, assuming they end up better this season to begin with.

Atkins is solid, but definitely replaceable. I'd be fine with it. Whether it would actually happen is another story. It would have to take either missing the playoffs this season or getting embarrassed in the WC round again for it to be possible, and even then I'm not sure. With Vlad/Bo only controllable through 2025, if Click stays around long enough (he probably won't), then I could see him being Atkins' successor at some point. It's not like Atkins has set this up to be a sustainable juggernaut. After 2025 it's highly possible the team will have to go through a rebuild depending on what happens with Vlad and Bo's contracts, and I sure as hell don't want Atkins around if that happens.

Agreed. The farm system in particular is not making me very confident for a sustainable run beyond 2023-25, so the Jays really have to take advantage of these next 3 seasons. The fact that the team has over $80m invested in the rotation and we'd still have a hard time feeling confident with whoever would start Game 2 of a playoff series is kinda scary. I still expect the Jays, barring significant injury, to be around where they were the last two seasons (90-95 wins), but the strength of the division is intense.

Gausman has to be tipping his pitches. Or Cora is cheating again. Maybe both.

Kirk and Merrifield both off on the same day again. Not sure why Schneider (or the org) can't structure the off days differently so that two of your better performing hitters aren't sitting on the same day in favor of two hitters who look absolutely overmatched and abysmal so far (Belt/Biggio).

I hate pitching prospects.

The issue with the Game 2 scenario was that there is no analytic in the world that could rationalize it. Mayza got rocked by RHB. Santana was much better against LHP. Gausman had no issues with facing an order for the 3rd time (2.91 ERA/2.65 FIP 3rd time through the order in 2022), was only at 90+ pitches, and had a near 6 WAR regular season. There are good decisions that just don't work out, and then there's whatever the hell that was. Never mind having an 8-1 lead in the 6th and deciding that Tapia was the best guy to bring in rather than a vetrin whose only skill at that point was being great defensively. Schneider and all managers do make decisions based on probability. As mentioned, some times it works, some times it doesn't. There are also times when moves simply do not make sense and are a result of a manager's "gut" gone wrong. I hope the latter was responsible for Game 2's decisions because if it was the Jays analytics, then that's a bigger problem.

That man did what he did in Game 2 of the Wild Card game and immediately got extended. We shouldn't be surprised at anything we see this season.

Yeah, Kirk and Merrifield should be ahead of Varsho, but regardless the right players are playing. Making the lineup "more lefty" hurts the offense because Belt is washed and Biggio stinks. The two catcher lineup and Merrifield playing everyday at 2B should be the most used lineup unless/until they replace Belt with a better bat.

They can't afford to lose Chapman, but I don't know if they would be willing to pay the price that it would take to sign him. Chapman is a Boras guy and by far the best FA 3B available. If he's coming off a 5-6 WAR season on top of that, then his ask will be huge, and whoever signs him would be paying top dollar for his 30's. The front office does deserve some benefit of the doubt in this case as they lost Ray coming of a Cy Young season and Semien coming off a top 3 MVP finish, and somehow replaced both with better players (Gausman and Chapman). I would expect them to try the same this winter. I agree that they need to go reasonably "all in" at the trade deadline. No more giving Tapia 500 plate appearances just to non tender him after the season type of decisions. The Jays are closer to the end of the Vlad/Bo window than the beginning, so every move they make between now and 2024 will have to be done with the expectation of trying to win a championship in 2023-25. The farm system doesn't look like it will be producing another star position player any time soon, so they'll have to make more Varsho type of trades where they turn prospects into controllable big leaguers at positions of need during the winter, while also trading prospects during the deadline to get better.

Yeah I think it's fair to say the Jays will be at a disadvantage come playoff time with Schneider managing, but they are still a really good team, so even with Schneider costing the team games here and there with bad bullpen management or whatever, they should still be 90+ wins by the end of the season. If the Rays end up being 100+ wins, then there's not much you can do about that. The 2021 Jays missed the playoffs by 1 game, and Montoyo literally punted a game on purpose just to teach Tyler f'n Chatwood a lesson. I don't think the Jays have to worry about that with Schneider, at least I hope not, but regardless, the Jays seem to have a type with managers so it's not like they'd replace Schneider with a vetrin. It will be another yes man who will do what the org wants, and most orgs do that now. Even Boone is a puppet for the Yankees front office. Cash is as well, except the Rays as a whole are very smart, so it doesn't come off that way.

Swanson has pitched in half of the team's games. They likely need to start trusting other relievers in the late innings to avoid him and Romano burning out. Pearson is the logical guy to thrust into that role given his stuff. Hopefully last night was the start of it, although I suspect Jimi will be trusted more.

Lineup balance when the lefties suck isn’t all that.