That's fair. No one in the AL East is going to run away with the division, because:
Red Sox: Good offense and depth and will likely score a fair amount of runs but won't contend because of their terrible pitching and bullpen giving up 5+ runs a game, especially at Fenway. Most of their starters, except for Porcello, are coming off awful seasons. I'm not falling for the hype. This team could be a top team... or could finish in the basement. This team reminds me too much of the Texas Rangers.. elite offense ruined by terrible pitching, which Boston is unfortunately facing. Owens/E-Rod/Barnes/Johnson can't come soon enough (if they develop properly).. at least one or two of Buchholz/Miley/Masterson/Kelly will be in the bullpen(Kelly), DFAd(Buchholz(final guaranteed year with a meagre buyout), Masterson) or in AAA(Miley--he has options left) by June. Only Porcello gives me any confidence. And that bullpen is really questionable.. even the Yankees know how to build a bullpen, unlike Boston.
Orioles: Many questions about Wieters' health, offensive regression because of the loss of Markakis, Cruz and others unable to offset any rebound in Machado and Davis(if any). Plus, that rotation is due for serious regression, based on advanced metrics outside of Gausman. But they'll avoid it if their defense remains elite.. Also, who's going to score for them? So far this spring, their regulars seem to be struggling outside of Davis.. but it's only Spring Training. But at least they have Showalter.. and they've been able to mine some diamonds in the rough (see Davis, Pearce, Young, Paredes?)
Yankees: They'll pitch well (if healthy) in the rotation and bullpen... but the aging roster offensively could be an issue. They really need some youth.. but Sanchez, Judge, Bird, etc. are at least a year away. And will any of their SSs hit?
Blue Jays Can we stay healthy? Who's the 2B? And who's in the bullpen? The rotation does show promise, though, with no more Morrows and McGowans driving up the ERA, even without Stroman, depending how Sanchez and Norris do. Let's hope AA can get our bullpen fixed, whether it's Castro in the bullpen or anybody through a late trade, or somebody breaking through this spring. And can we find a 1B so that EE can DH full time?
Rays: This team is going to suck, plain and simple. Injuries ravaging the rotation, and little offense(one of the lowest scoring teams this spring, as their regulars outside of Longoria are not hitting or getting on-base.)
My expectation as it is is difficult to rate. But I don't see Boston contending. I almost want to say Toronto will be a top team, compared to this cesspool of an AL East.. but I'll give it to the O's for now.
My expectation is:
O's
Blue Jays
Yankees
Red Sox
Rays