Agreed, definitely should extend a QO. The outcomes are all favourable:
He accepts - you over pay slightly for 1 year but you avoid the risk attached to a long-term contract for a 1 year wonder. Considering where the Jays are on the win curve and contention window, the over payment is worth it. Plus, if he is great again you can QO again.
He declines - you pick up a draft pick or you resign him still, but you gain leverage by attaching a cost of a draft pick to him.
I think he declines but the QO is an easy decision. Ideally the rotation is Stroman, FA, Estrada, Dickey, 1 of Hutch/Osuna/Sanchez (let these guys compete for a rotation spot).