Of course. I do look at it that way. The extension changes that equation and is a different issue. Lots of guys argued at the time of the deal we lost it, without an extension if you look at the thread. The extension was a big deal and it was unknown element at the time. The extension was done based on a different evaluation by the FO other than the 1.5 year prospect deal. I'm sure at the time of the deal the FO hoped it was possible but its never a guaranteed outcome. Now they may wish it never happened...or not. Don't know. This FO spent about $140M on Ryu, Roark and Kooch and thats produced less than 4 net WAR I think.
Back in 2012 I remember arguing with a really solid poster OTB. I was defending giving up prospects for a proven MLB talent, given we don't know what the prospects will ever be, and I listed off a bunch of flame outs. They made the point to me its really about the market's value at the time of the deal. What you are giving and what you are getting. You can't base the deal all on presumptive or predicted future performance by either. Since then, I've always accepted that principle.