TwistedLogic

3.69 xFIP is "garbage scrap"? His career FIP of 3.59 is garbage? 60.4 GB%, 0.54 HR/9 career rates, yeah, looks like utter trash. Moron.

http://i.gyazo.com/5202564049e73ab17d3280ccc4ef5837.png Have I mentioned lately how helpful the chats can be when it comes to finding things to write about? You guys don’t know how valuable you are. Dozens upon dozens of questions, if not hundreds upon hundreds, and out of those questions, longer posts can occasionally germinate. This is one of them! Because I’ve noticed a recurring kind of question about Drew Hutchison, and how much he might be capable of in 2015. Pulling an example, from earlier January: http://i.gyazo.com/3834aa99dda5a10d6c16c6838f7c5033.png Dave’s right, of course. The smart thing to do is to always bet against a breakout, as foretold by an encouraging second half. But that’s also boring, and one figures encouraging second halves can sometimes mean something for the season to come. We’re all just here to analyze, right? So, let’s do some analysis. What on earth was the deal with Drew Hutchison’s slider? Turns out this is really easy to spot. We’ll turn to Brooks Baseball, as we usually do. Hutchison has thrown a slider all along, but late last year, something was different. A plot of average game velocities: http://i.gyazo.com/a8714482f2c21c96b91a8fa662dd904a.png You see the slider dropping down to the far right side. This is maybe even more apparent when we look at a plot of average vertical movements: http://i.gyazo.com/1f87d411b2485fc5412a143eac3ba38a.png That’s abrupt. All of a sudden, Hutchison’s slider was a tick or two slower, and it was dropping another three or four inches. It had bounced around a little bit before, but never like this, and never with so much consistency. Something was different. Hutchison, it seems, made some kind of tweak. Or he just figured out almost overnight how to deliver his breaking ball with far greater consis- tency. Now grabbing images from Texas Leaguers: http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/HutchisonPitches.gif It’s easy to see the green blob move. But it’s not like things changed dramatically — there’s overlap between the two blobs, such that the sliders Hutchison was throwing down the stretch last year did have some precedent. Earlier in 2014, Hutchison did throw some sliders with a lot of vertical break. But toward the end, he threw them almost exclusively. Through August 17, 55% of Hutchison’s sliders had a vertical movement reading below 0, according to PITCHf/x. Afterward, 99%. That’s not the kind of thing that can be explained by coincidence. Here’s one of Hutchison’s finest sliders from that final stretch: http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/HutchisonSL3.gif That’s a beautiful pitch. A seemingly unhittable pitch? But here’s a similar slider, from June: http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/HutchisonSL1.gif And here’s a completely different slider, from the same game: http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/HutchisonSL2.gif Because there was precedent, I don’t want to say that Drew Hutchison picked up a new pitch. He’d thrown those late-season sliders before. He’d just never thrown so many of them. He all but elimi- nated the harder sliders, the borderline cutters. What’s odd is that Hutchison hasn’t talked about this at all, to my knowledge. I just find some generic remarks about better consistency. But, I also haven’t consumed every single piece of Blue Jays media since August, so maybe I’m missing some- thing. Toronto opponents had their eyes open: http://i.gyazo.com/3a53660cfac58d14bce56c9d7f28ef82.png From Chase Headley, perhaps meaningfully: http://i.gyazo.com/10c1a88f6a16e30573c34dc5dc3a17bc.png It’s clear, from those quotes, the Yankees were unprepared for the slider Hutchison was throwing. They’d seen him plenty before, and they’d seen him throw sliders plenty before, but on August 30, the slider was different and extremely effective. Hutchison was worse when he faced the Yankees again three weeks later. I don’t know how much to make of that. I think I accidentally skipped right by the very reason this is so interesting. The PITCHf/x plots show a significant change between Hutchison’s starts on August 17 and August 24. Why don’t we go ahead and split his season into bits? http://i.gyazo.com/6ffda540eea4a118991f8f4c8a43f494.png That’s a gigantic change in performance. And along with the different slider characteristics came different slider usage patterns. First, he threw the slider 21% of the time. Then, 31%. First, he threw the slider 33% of the time with two strikes. Then, 45%. The slider became the preferred putaway pitch against both righties and lefties, despite its reputation as a pitch with a broad pla- toon split. Pitch patterns don’t change randomly. Not like this, not over a handful of games in a row. Hutchison developed a lot more confidence in his slider. He knew what he was able to do with it, and he was having a lot more success keeping it consistently down and mostly out of the zone without being too far out of the zone. So Hutchison polished his slider and became more consistent with it over the course of seven starts or so. He immediately increased his level of trust in it, which allowed him to back off some from his changeup, which has never been a plus delivery to lefties. Between a low sharp slider and a high fastball, Hutchison mostly succeeded with two weapons. The changeup is still present to keep hitters honest. Combing through the Baseball Prospectus PITCHf/x leaderboards, I noticed you can split by month. I looked for sliders thrown by right-handed starters last September, and I set a minimum of 50 sliders thrown. Hutchison’s slider has the lowest average vertical movement. The only other slider close: Jason Hammel‘s. Interestingly, about Hammel’s slider: http://i.gyazo.com/9a593e8bff3b422f9972e7668af32898.png Hammel’s slider also experienced a midseason change in vertical break. It’s a decent comp for Hutchison’s, in terms of velocity and movement. Like Hutchison, Hammel threw his slider pretty often against left-handed hitters. And he was a lot better against lefties in 2014 than he was the year before. They say the slider isn’t a great pitch for righties to throw to lefties, but that’s a rule that has to have exceptions. The question is, what now? Hutchison was absurdly good after he started exclusively using his slower and bigger-breaking slider. That’s the encouraging bit. He did finish strong, and it does look like a quality breaking ball, visually. Hutchison’s increased confidence in the pitch can’t be written off. On the other hand, there are two things. For one, who’s to say Hutchison’s slider will be so consistent again in 2015? And for two, now teams will have had more of a chance to prepare. The Yankees were caught off guard in August by Hutchison’s breaking ball. They were more successful the next time they met. Players in the league are always adjusting, and adjust- ments back don’t always happen immediately. There can be a delay, and perhaps, in Hutchison’s case, the word is out that his slider has a lot more consistent depth. As long as Tyson Ross exists, there’s reason to believe righties can be effective against lefties leaning heavily on a slider. Hutchison demonstrated his own ability through seven late-season starts. It’s absolutely right to be encouraged. And it’s absolutely right to be curious. Hutchison’s slider might just be a part of him now. And in 2015, opposing teams get to take that into consi- deration. Somewhere in August, Drew Hutchison figured out his breaking ball. Now it’s on the league to try to figure out Drew Hutchison.

Which of Belisario's stats make him a "garbage scrap" exactly? Where exactly is the digging being done? Your ass?

I like Navarro as the backup. I like that he's good in high leverage situations and has a decent bat. I like that having Navarro as the backup, and by proxy, having Thole in the minors, makes a strong statement. All that said, Navarro's 5M can be used in an area where there's a much bigger need, whether that gets you a guy like Weeks, or whether that gets you another bullpen arm or two.

He has 12 career saves, lol. 60.4 GB%, 0.54 HR/9 career numbers, had a .339 BABIP last year (50 points higher than his career average), strong periphs with a 3.22 SIERA (3.26 career)... if you can look past the grotesque face (easier said than done), he's definitely a guy. Liking the idea of signing him more by the minute. Good fit for the Jays. If they sign him, I can see the words "I love you, you fat ugly bastard" being uttered at some point in a game day thread on this forum in 2015.

I really wish they trade Navarro. I feel like that's a small move that will show a lot, and will go a long way in appeasing the people that are still unsold on them.

Actually to be fair, most of his "great contracts" were negotiated while Sartori still worked here, before he left for Apple. Maybe there's a coincidence in there somewhere, but we don't actually know if AA himself is good with contracts, which sucks to say, because I used to hold that as one of his bigger positives. I don't know, there's so much ******** revolving around the Jays FO that you never really know who's at fault for what, it just feels like there's been an evolution of sorts recently. I get that there's still holes on the roster, but that in itself is okay. Not having assets is one thing, misusing the ones you do have is another, and I feel like (or at least I'm optimistic) the Jays have shown growth on the latter front. I know they can still f*** it up by regularly DH'ing Navarro, but if it's true that they're looking to start Thole in Triple-A, that's an improvement.

Ugh f***, I was hoping they'd go after anyone else. Whatever, he's a decent fit. Groundball guy, gives up no homers, strong peripherals. Wish he wasn't so hideous. And I really hope it's for less than "a couple million".

Can't say that I didn't have an undying love for AA once upon a time, but that's withered in recent years. When he made the Lind trade I was about ready to give up on him, and then he redeemed himself in a big way shortly after that, which sort of rekindled my appreciation for him. I'm still not as high as I used to be on him, but I still think he's an asset and that he benefits this organization more than he hurts it. If he gets removed from his post, I can't see him hurting the team if he's kept on in a Tinnish-like role. That said, I do think there will probably be decent demand for him on the open market, and I also think that if he gets to work with a better ownership group, he might make Jays fans regret their hate for him. Someone's going to have a trainwreck of a season and up in the 70s.

http://i.gyazo.com/944af1a9b2258a885cbe19d94f2dc388.png

I'd say the Red Sox are considerably better.

I actually really liked a lot of the roster related news coming from AA in this interview. Norris over Sanchez as a starter, Thole likely in the minors, Smoke/Valencia at 1B and Edwin at DH. All of that is pretty much music to my ears. Looks like Navarro is either gonna get dealt or used as the backup catcher and both of those scenarios just seem monumentally better than the previous notion, which was T-Hole up and Navarro dh'ing.

Reading the obvious message between the lines, sounds like the Jays are pretty much out on Shields.

Can you imagine Castro making it onto the team as a 20 year old and actually sticking? He'd hit FA at 26, lol.

If AA gets removed from the GM post, I really f***ing hope they figure out a way to keep him in the organization.

Will I get harassed if I pick Pentecost ahead of Sanchez?

Well, I'd have easily given Crain four times as much as what the White Sox game him. They can probably still shore up the bullpen by only spending money on the free market. I wouldn't give up any discernible assets for a relief guy unless someone like Holland, Chapman or Kimbrel hit the trade block.

This is a fair concern, but hopefully it hasn't screwed him too hard. If I remember correctly, Headley had a slipped disk in his back and he was the best defender in the majors last year. And yes, I do realize that Dirks is no Headley, lol.

In that case, I have no idea how many days he's got. If it's based on service time, he isn't eligible, and if September is excluded regardless to service time, then he might be. Oh whatever, who cares, just put him on the list lol, he's only thrown 33 innings.

Yeah I was just about to say that I lied. Sanchez has 69 days of service time, he's ineligible. Source: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/toronto-blue-jays/

Could do 1 day for first 3 or 5 guys, and 2 days for every one after that. 3 days is too long. And all three of those guys are still rookie-eligible. So they're all considered prospects for this exercise,

Yeah the OF depth is pretty mediocre, but I feel a bit better about it after they re-signed Dirks. Colabello is probably garbage in OF, but he could probably man it for a few games in the most desperate situations as well.

Another idea could be to create a "Top 10 under 25" list instead of a prospects list, if the prospects list wasn't getting a lot of support. Might be interesting to see how people rank guys like Norris relative to how they rank Hutch. And yes, I agree, polls are the best and easiest way to engage people. Submitting personal rankings makes it like homework, and it's probably too much for some people all at once. With polls, people can vote on their own time on each one and. Additionally, you can make a rule that a poll will be considered closed when it either a) expires on its own, or receives 20 votes (or whatever pre-determined number). This way we can move through the early ranks a bit faster, since those are generally obvious picks anyway.

Yeah, with the Brewers.