Orgfiller

The power is real in the sense that, yes he has the ability to hit for extra base hits when he connects well. But his hit tool and plate discipline is going to really limit him from being much better than league average ish. That's fine, and valuable over a full season while he's also providing elite defense. But I think last season's power output, particularly in the HR department, was a bit of a mirage and unlikely to be repeated unless he really cuts down on the K rate, and he probably doesn't come anywhere near a 120 wRC+ without that or really improving his plate discipline. His HR/FB% was >20%, he did reduce his pop out rate which is a positive development, but his K/BB was awful and the OBP was sub .300 for the third season in a row. I'd be ecstatic if he's a 100-105 wRC+ power bat who runs the bases well when he infrequently reaches, but I have a hard time seeing him improve on that, and the projection systems seem to agree this is who he is.

Will he? The glove first guys don't tend to get paid in FA, and he needs to prove that he can sustain last season's power output over a full year while not crashing out from his worsening K/BB rates. Does Varsho get more than Okamoto's 4/60 in the open market right now? Maybe, but does he get much more than that?

He's a 1B/LF/DH at this point, and likely doesn't make up for it in power output that's necessary when you're that defensively limited. Even if he hits okay, the poor defense is going to drag his value down a lot. A 15-20 homer tops 1B/DH with a bad hit tool is just not a valuable player. Likely ends up as a platoon bench bat.

Not necessarily disagreeing with a lot of what you're saying, but I don't really think it's true to claim that people didn't know how good his defense was. He's generally regarded as one of, if not the best defensive outfielder of all time. This is well evidenced by him winning 10 consecutive GGs, which corresponds with practically the entirety of his prime/years as an elite player before his precipitous drop-off in his 30s. The argument of course, is that people didn't, and to a certain extent still probably don't, value his defense as highly as it should(?) have been. You're gonna have a hard time convincing most people, even today, that a 160 wRC+ DH-only - or worse, brutal defender like a lot of the sluggers of the 90s in a no-DH league were - monster bat is as equally valuable as a 115 wRC+ defensive superstar even in a premium defensive position like CF, SS or C. For god's sake, the Braves even experimented with putting Chipper Jones in the outfield from 2002-04 since it probably didn't even matter how brutal he was if Andruw would mostly cover for his range. They knew how good his defense was. I agree fWAR allows us to retrospectively give him some of the credit he deserves, and this may ultimately result in a HOF induction that one may not have thought about during his playing days, but that's not to say that people didn't know just how good he was at defense, relative to his peers, even at the time.

Straw is the only true CF left on the 40-man, I really don't think he's being DFA'd any time soon unless he stinks it up to begin the season (entirely possible).

Should be pointed out, to highlight Jones' candidacy: 6+ WAR seasons: Beltran - 4 Jones - 6 Edmonds - 6 7+ WAR seasons: Beltran - 2 Jones - 3 Edmonds - 1 His prime/peak was nuts, and that's with him being essentially washed by age 30, accumulating the entirety of his career value by then.

I think Andruw Jones is basically the Ozzie Smith of the outfield, except he was a legit pretty good bat in his prime, and just declined early and fast. I think if Felix Hernandez is in, then someone like Jones likely should be as well. I think Jim Edmonds likely deserves to be in if Jones is in. Edmonds had the reputation of an elite defender, but was more Pillar like in that he masked bad reads and ok range with absurd highlight reel plays, but those 8 GGs should help his candidacy. He was a legit impact bat though, a career 132 wRC+ bat with that many GGs and 64 fWAR likely means he deserves to be elected by the Veteran's committee later on. Edit: and as usual sliderguy gives a better argument than I could

He’s a very tough pitcher to project. Legitimate soft contact inducer which the projection systems probably aren’t tuned for/purposefully ignore projecting since for the vast majority of pitchers it’s not a true repeatable skill.

Yamamoto lol

At least they've made up for it in pitching development. Skenes seems like a tough one to give them a whole lot of credit for, given the hype and projections as he entered the draft, but he's nonetheless pitched as well as possible so partly some credit has to be given. Then there's Bubba Chandler and Jared Jones, high upside arms. Mitch Keller, Ashcraft are both solid mid rotation guys. They've actually killed it with drafting and developing starters recently.

Yeah, aside from the cast that they were working with, they also just had a nightmare season in terms of underperformance. Oneil Cruz and Reynolds were both sub 100 wRC+ bats, but they both underperformed their xwOBAs pretty substantially. Nick Gonzalez took a nosedive after a decently promising 2024 campaign, plus his draft + prospect pedigree adding to the disappointment. Ditto Henry Davis x1000. To their credit, they have an entirely home grown rotation, developed a good reliever in Dennis Santana for free (claimed off waivers), and have bolstered both their bullpen and lineup a good deal without needing to overpay anywhere.

Pirates' top 5 of Horwitz, Brandon Lowe, Bryan Reynolds, Ryan O'Hearn and Oneil Cruz isn't sending chills down your spine, but has potential to be a nuisance in any given game with some hidden potential, mostly in the form of Cruz.

It's getting to that time in the offseason where the cheap teams start buying unsigned FAs at a discounted price to show that "see we're not cheap! We spend money! Also keep those revenue sharing checks coming". Ryan O'Hearn to the Pirates for 2/29. This is the Pirates' first FA multi year deal since Ivan Nova in 2016 (3/26), and first multi year FA deal to a hitter since John Jaso (2/8) exactly 10 years to the date.

Abrams and Butler are similar pieces, but I like Abrams' additional SBs and he'll likely switch from SS to CF at any point now. He also strikes out less so will likely always run higher batting averages/hits. Griffin looks good but he's going to be 20 years old with limited exposure at AA, I wouldn't quite hand him the keys to the franchise just yet.

That's sad, he was a budding relief ace.

Yeah when the entire baseball world can’t beat 2/34 it means the concerns about his ability to make contact are valid and significant. A huge embarrassment for Murakami and his camp.

This is less impressive considering they sold Paredes to acquire Morel who was f***ing awful for them lol, but yeah pretty cool trade tree.

Lowe is in the last year of his contract and making $11.5M as a 2 win player which is too much for the Rays. I'm more surprised they gave up on Montgomery given the stuff, but they must think his command is tough to fix. Melton has some big tools, he's a pretty legit prospect to get back for a low value piece in Lowe and a likely reliever with high risk/upside.

This trade is essentially 5 40 FV types for one mediocre starter who doesn't eat innings, is already in arbitration, and who would best be utilized as a 2 IP fireman. It improves the O's rotation but in no meaningful way and with little upside.

Shane Baz is like the epitome of a 5 and dive guy, so I like this a lot for the Rays even if no one prospect they're acquiring is particularly exciting. Baz's numbers fall off the table literally on just the second time through the order, probably the fakest "starter" in the league. He's essentially a really good 2-3 IP opener that can cover a mediocre 4th and 5th innings. I remember last season when he carved us up first time through the order, literally unhittable, and then immediately turned into a pumpkin the second time through and got shelled.

They've actually extended two of their young stars since they locked in to Maikel Garcia as well. Just a competent mid market organization that makes the kind of moves they should be making. It's a breath of fresh air.

Cheap lefties who throw gas and have team control vs soft(er) throwing lefty with one year left. Strahm has been MUCH better than all 3 of them last two seasons, but actually projects similarly/worse than all of them.

Is it not a weird move from an opportunity cost POV? Even if they were down on Strahm and wanted to cut ties before the bottom fell out, he has quite solid surface level stats, and is a lefty which teams are always looking for good options for their bullpen. Even if the Phillies love the potential with Bowlan, it feels like they could've at least gotten a 40 FV prospect tacked on or something, or looked elsewhere for a deal that got them a 45+ FV or better prospect from a contending team. Idk, I'm looking at how the reliever market is going, and Strahm could easily double his 2026 salary on a one year deal if he were a FA.

A 116 wRC+ as a 1B with bad defense, which is pretty mediocre, is not a breakout. A breakout would be like a >130 wRC+ at least. He has the exit velos and contact profile to get it done, just needs to get to his power more often which is easier said than done.

I like what the Royals have been doing this offseason. If they could upgrade one of their sub replacement options at 2B and get a breakout year from Pasquantino/Caglianone then they could do very well in the AL Central.