tercet
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Everything posted by tercet
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Steve Pearce to the Red Sox for Santiago Espinal
tercet replied to King's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
#lotteryticket -
Anyone have any good reviews for this new guy we got for Pearce?
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Nevermind the fact hes been meh for the last 5 seasons, 1/2 of a good season, give him the Matt Moore contract.
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SRF also has probably the worse anger management of any pitcher I can recall of in the last 10 years. Worse then Ricky Romero Multiple times in that game I saw him in Tampa he spazzes out after walking batters or leaving hanging sliders that turned into hrs.
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I could have used the poker book in May, Chinese sweat shop workers made more then me. June is going aite though so far!
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Nice for Harris and SRF to have some short term success, but not too optimistic long term on them. SRF is super inconsistent, when I saw him vs Tampa in March he opened the game with 10 straight balls.
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No,no,no,no,no,no,no.
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Yea he turned on some nice fastballs up and away, but he has shown the ability to hit that pitch. If he can learn to be more patient and stop swinging down & away ill buy a Teoscar jersey for BB and get it autographed.
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Holy s*** your learning now and making some sense BB! As I’ve said in the past with some help from BTS the most likely comps are Hunter Renfroe, Adam Duvall once variance evens out. It’s possible he could be a freak of nature and keep up his slg rate, but highly unlikely. Adam Jones and Matt Kemp are more probable then his current pace, but still unlikely in my opinion. He needs to cut his swinging strike to be like them.
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Sigh, no matter what evidence I show you, your going to be a delusional Teoscar fanboy. First time I've heard the "Hell, you didn't even cite ISO when talking about offence" argument though. No one in 20 years has kept up Teoscar's pace with his perhiperals over his last 300~ PA, but I guess he will be the exception and keep up this pace since your always right BB.
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Your a fanboy who doesn't understand variance, sample sizes, etc. I've tried multiple times in this thread over the last couple weeks to explain that to you how that works because with poker analogies having being playing it for over 10 years as it is the same thing as baseball when you look at the data. But you don't want to change (don't worry I was once like you maybe 10 yrs ago with Snider, JPA, Ruiz, Mills, etc). You have to realize that maybe 95% of the time Teoscar is going to finish like everyone else in that leader board, because major league pitchers are good, when your a hacker, very rarely will walk rates just go up 50, 75%, etc. Sure once in a while a JD Martinez exists, but they are very very very rare. I don't doubt he has power as I've said multiple times. But free-swingers/hackers almost never succeed long term vs major league pitching.
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Spring-training inter-league squad games are even better. Like 50 Jays just walking around/sitting in the stands chatting with randoms and they are free!
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Nice bet, maybe some fanboy like BB would give you those odds since he is a bigtime Teoscar fanboy. I'd only give you 1-1 bc that bet is pretty much a lock lol Are you going to Queens Plate next weekend?
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Weird things happen over small samples.. As we say in poker... FISH OH A HEATER!!!!!!!!!
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I'm trying to use analogies because of variance and samples which you don't seem to understand. Teoscar is a flash in the pan, he will more then likely get figured out like every hitter similar to him has in the last 20~ years of his type has. Here is quick filter, since 2000 of similar hitters to Teoscar. BB 4-8, K > 25, PA >= 500 https://www.fangraphs.com/leaderssplits.aspx?splitArr=&strgroup=career&statgroup=2&startDate=2000-3-1&endDate=2018-11-1&filter=BB%25%7Crange%7C0.04%7C0.08,K%25%7Cgt%7C0.25,PA%7Cgt%7C500&position=B&statType=player&autoPt=true&players=&pg=0&pageItems=200&sort=16,1 Do you notice the trend? They all regress to the mean, or don't make it past 500 pa since they get figured out. Is it possible that Teoscar could improve his bb/k ratios? Yes! Is it possible that Teoscar could be better then every type of hitter similiar to him over the last 20 years? Yes! Time will tell!
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I won 12k usd back in April when in Washington, dc for 4 days when the Raptors were in town for the playoffs. Some 40~ year old asian gambler shoved 3000$ at 10/25 with 27 offsuit when I had QQ and I won a 6k pot. Will I win 3k usd every day I play poker? Naw. Will guys go-allin for 3000$ preflop with 27 offsuit every hand in poker? Very rarely Variance is weird, in poker and baseball alike. I'm doing my best to make an educated guess on Teoscar based off of similar type hitters in recent baseball history. I am not as optimistic on him as most. I look forward to what the future brings!
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Hmm sure? I guess ISO over 350 ABs for one player is more reliable then basic bb/k ratios of thousands of similar free-swinging type baseball hitters. Cmon seriously
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Uhh sure, I don't think I've ever posted ISO before on this forum.
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Naw, I've been right and wrong plenty of times on this forum over the last 11-12 years. I'll own my decision either way.
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Not anytime soon imo, the underlying stats still say he cant keep this up. It's possible he could be a freak of nature and keep up this performance with his underlying stats. At what point will I admit he is a decent hitter? I don't know maybe maybe 750-1000 ABs? Tons of similar free swingers have had success over 500~ABS. Look at Grichuk, he has a better stats line then Teoscar over the last couple weeks, but no way he will keep that up. They are pretty much the same hitter, they can run into random hot streaks when they face a streak of mistake pitches.
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375 babip, 5.6%bb, 31%k, the mirage is strong throughout June.. But we should just induct him into the HOF LOL VARIANCE
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Also where da trollz at? Teoscar is on a super hot streak lately, we should put him on the wall of excellence imo. He lasted about 1 hour in the poker tourney last night, Donaldson and Maile were out in about 10 minutes lol
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JP Arencibia picked up one of the volunteers from the event, also I'll stress again Biagini is awesome despite having a tough run pitching lately.
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Haven't touched a table game for > 10 years, thx for being so informed brah.
